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Early Voting Numbers Scare Democrats

The Prof

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Early voting numbers scare Democrats :: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES :: Carol Marin

With just one more week of early voting left, Cook County Clerk David Orr, a Democrat, doesn't mince words: "There is certainly a scare here for the Democrats."

For Democratic top-of-the-ticket candidates Pat Quinn for governor and Alexi Giannoulias for U.S. Senate, there has got to be real concern about mobilizing the African-American vote in Chicago, a base that they need to turn out in significant numbers.

And yet, the signs are worrisome. Though midterm elections always show a drop in voter participation from the preceding presidential election, there are 40,000 fewer registered black voters now than in the 2006 midterm.

With Downstate voters expected to turn out for Republicans, and suburban women the wild card in this election, Democrats have got to deliver their base in Chicago or Quinn and Giannoulias are cooked.
1. The burbs are beating the burroughs, completely unprecedentedly, in some bailiwicks by 3 to 1.

2. The COOK COUNTY clerk concedes.

3. It's African Americans in Chicago---they're way down.

4. 40,000 fewer blacks are REGISTERED to vote in the Windy City than there were in 06.

5. Chicago witnessed a bump of 190,000 votes in 08 over 06, but today there are 160,000 FEWER residents registered to vote.

6. Many moved, presumably, others died, explains the Sun Times.

7. In 48 of 50 downtown wards, voter registration is down.

8. EIGHTEEN African American neighborhoods have taken a "big hit."

9. The bump in the burbs has got to be bloodcurdling to Melissa Bean in the 8th, Bill Foster in the 14th and Debbie Halvorson in 11.

10. According to the Sun Times, if the party cannot turn out suburban women, then Quinn and Giannoulias are "cooked."

11. Yet PEW last week demonstrated that Republicans are actually LEADING the female vote, 49 to 43.

12. Amongst white women, the gap grows to TWENTY points.

Pew Poll: Tsunami Warning For Democrats - Hotline On Call

13. What the dems of Illinois are experiencing in the Land of Lincoln is extrapolating across the country.

14. Leadership has largely given up on the House, it's concentrating its furious efforts in this final, frantic week on the Senate, particularly California, Washington and Nevada.

15. And its outreach is directed very pointedly at women.

16. In the 77 most competitive House races, Republicans lead on average by TWELVE percent.

17. NBC/WSJ, just a few days earlier, said that in the 92 closest districts the anti-Obamites were up by FOURTEEN.

GOP Holds Stable Lead In Swing Districts: NBC News/WSJ Poll : It's All Politics : NPR

18. And THAT's amongst REGISTERED voters.

19. By all models one can safely forecast that had LIKELY voters been screened instead the red range would be several points higher.

20. Independents are going GOP by a plurality of NINETEEN.

21. Did you see what Charlie Cook wrote this week? Larry Sabato? Nate Silver? Stuart Rothenberg? Jay Cost and Sean Trende?

National Journal Online - The Third Wave In A Row

Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » OCTOBER RESET

Projected Republican Gains Approach 50 House Seats - NYTimes.com

House Ratings | The Rothenberg Political Report

Morning Jay: Special "Penultimate Predictions" Edition! | The Weekly Standard

22. The latter did an enlightening analysis this morning, asking, exactly WHO is a "likely voter" in 2010?

23. Trende begins by looking at the voter turnout in the gubernatorials in New Jersey and Virginia, one year ago, the nite Chris Christie ousted Jon Corzine and Bob McDonnell undid Creigh Deeds and his donkey named Harry S Truman.

24. Actual voterships in those bellwethers, notes Trende, were very close to the 2004 presidential.

25. Yet today's pollsters, Gallup, Rasmussen, PPP, CNN, are all of them looking naturally at turnouts closer to 06 and 08.

26. Trende concludes, if you employ a turnout model closer to 04, you get a result that adds about 3 points to, pretty much, every Republican in the country.

27. Both McDonnell and Christie outperformed THEIR pre-election surveys by that skinny but crucial margin, Trende details.

RealClearPolitics - Who's Going to Vote This Year?

28. I have quite a bit more but that's enough for now, talk to ya soon.

The Prof
 

Councilman

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The only thing the Democrats have to fear is Obama himself.

My favorite part of this story is this: "Though midterm elections always show a drop in voter participation from the preceding presidential election, there are 40,000 fewer registered black voters now than in the 2006 midterm."

The reason I find it funny is I have this vision of the 40,000 of them climbing back into their graves.
 

The Prof

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Digging Into the Early Voting Numbers… - By Jim Geraghty - The Campaign Spot - National Review Online

for whatever reasons, dems have kicked gop butt in early voting in most locations since its inception

in 06, for instance, enlightened angels outperformed knuckle draggers in the earlies by a plurality of 16.6%

PROGRESSIVES, HOWEVER, DID NOT MAINTAIN THAT MIGHTY ADVANTAGE IN THE GENERAL, far from it

early blue balloting has historically outdone its actual ultimate turnout, empirically, by low double digits

in terrible 2010, this early edge enjoyed by the elites has EVAPORATED

red rollout is UP in EVERY state reporting, by a range from 4.7 more racists and reprobates in west virginia showing up early to tally their hate to an improvement of TWENTY SEVEN POINT FOUR percent in florida, the crucial sunshine state

in battleground gore, A HUNDRED AND FIFTY SIX THOUSAND more neanderthals have notched no's versus saints who've assented, 53% to 33% from the keys to the panhandle

Nadel's attorneys point to Moodys | HeraldTribune.com

kiss goodbye, alex sink

in sarasota, dems are in "a panic," an entirely NEW house district blips beckoningly on karl rove's greedy radar screen

red representation is UP 7.1% in colorado, 10.2 in iowa, 13.3 in maine, 25.9 in louisiana, 14.9 in north carolina, 7.1 in critical clark county (vegas), 11.0 in the silver state statewide

in nervous nevada, wingnuts are out-rallying reid NET

Republican early voters outnumber Democrats - News - ReviewJournal.com

bear in mind that comparisons of reds rising early vs blues balloting before election day leaves out the all-important independents, which pew puts forth as preferring republicans by NINETEEN points

rasmussen reports it as SEVENTEEN, gallup goes NINETEEN or TWENTY ONE (varying for turnout), fox affirms EIGHTEEN, and cnn says it's TWENTY NINE

Morning Jay: Special "Penultimate Predictions" Edition! | The Weekly Standard

finally, consider the 2010 primaries collectively: for the first time in 80 years republicans outpolled democrats, 17.2M to 12.9

dems in the derby were the lowest on record, reds were most roused since 1970

GOP nationwide primary vote exceeds democrats for first time since 1930 | American University Washington DC

red representation was more than 2:1 in wisconsin, i recall

in michigan i remember it was 1.98 to one

the show me's of missouri, who are almost never wrong, went 1.6 to one (it was the nite measure c---against the obamacare mandate---passed 79 to 21)

florida was 1.6 to one

washington i remember was 1.05 to one

i also recall getting murdered in maryland (tho frank kratovil on the eastern shore, MD1, is gonna win) and being out-netted in new york by 600K

those are feet on the ground, for what they're worth

fyi
 
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Jack Fate

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The American people are tired of being labeled racists, bigots and homophobes for simply disagreeing with these morons. These thugs should be scared. They've awakened a sleeping giant.
 
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Cardinal

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The American people are tired of being labeled racists, bigots and homophobes for simply disagreeing with these morons. These thugs should be scared. They've awakened a sleeping giant.
At least you can get your racists, bigots and homophobes to vote. Do you realize how difficult it is to get hippies and drug addicts into the voting booths?
 

Jack Fate

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At least you can get your racists, bigots and homophobes to vote. Do you realize how difficult it is to get hippies and drug addicts into the voting booths?
I see your point. The bribe must not be big enough on mid term elections.
 

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Deuce

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I see your point. The bribe must not be big enough on mid term elections.
Really, it's more the general issue of all midterms: the party in power has a less motivated voter base. We already won, no need to vote! Then there's the "bad things are the fault of who is currently in charge." It doesn't matter what the problem is or whether it could possibly be the fault of the current administration, they're in charge, so it's their fault it's not fixed yet. Right now, there's an especially large Bad Things Quotient, so it is now the fault of the Democrats for not fixing it yet. There's probably also the "oh, Obama wasn't the greatest thing since peanut butter" effect. There was such high hopes for our first Kenyan African-American president. Oh look, he turned out to be just another corporate-purchased politician. Further demotivated base.

And finally, yes, there's probably a small contingent on the right that never really thought ONE O THEM DANG NEGRAS would make it into office, and they're really motivated now.

End result: bigger than usual gains for the minority party this midterm. I expect the House to go (R), but the Senate will likely stay (D) thanks to the GOP fumbling horribly with tea party loonies in what should have been a few easy takeaways. (GOP needs 51 seats, as Biden will be a tie breaker for (D)) Hooray for partisan gridlock! Starting in 2011, nothing of substance is going to happen in congress. Just what we need during hard national times, a government that can't respond!
 

Jack Fate

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Really, it's more the general issue of all midterms: the party in power has a less motivated voter base. We already won, no need to vote! Then there's the "bad things are the fault of who is currently in charge." It doesn't matter what the problem is or whether it could possibly be the fault of the current administration, they're in charge, so it's their fault it's not fixed yet. Right now, there's an especially large Bad Things Quotient, so it is now the fault of the Democrats for not fixing it yet. There's probably also the "oh, Obama wasn't the greatest thing since peanut butter" effect. There was such high hopes for our first Kenyan African-American president. Oh look, he turned out to be just another corporate-purchased politician. Further demotivated base.

And finally, yes, there's probably a small contingent on the right that never really thought ONE O THEM DANG NEGRAS would make it into office, and they're really motivated now.

End result: bigger than usual gains for the minority party this midterm. I expect the House to go (R), but the Senate will likely stay (D) thanks to the GOP fumbling horribly with tea party loonies in what should have been a few easy takeaways. (GOP needs 51 seats, as Biden will be a tie breaker for (D)) Hooray for partisan gridlock! Starting in 2011, nothing of substance is going to happen in congress. Just what we need during hard national times, a government that can't respond!
A government that can't respond is exactly what we need until we get a government that governs according to the US Constitution. This government is making things much worse.
 

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!!!
Let's put the voting booths at Taco Bell!

What you want only young people and illegals to vote? Sure win for the democrats if that the case.

Smart people never eat at Taco Hell.
 
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Deuce

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A government that can't respond is exactly what we need until we get a government that governs according to the US Constitution. This government is making things much worse.
Economic freefall has stopped, high-risk pools are helping people on health care, some regulatory changes are in place that will hopefully prevent further housing crashes by reigning in some of the riskier financial practices...

"The government is making things worse" is a subjective statement.

What you want only young people and illegals to vote? Sure win for the democrats if that the case.

Smart people never eat at Taco Hell.
I didn't say ONLY at Taco Bell. :(
Because seriously, who wants to go to that place?
 

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Economic freefall has stopped, high-risk pools are helping people on health care, some regulatory changes are in place that will hopefully prevent further housing crashes by reigning in some of the riskier financial practices...

"The government is making things worse" is a subjective statement.



I didn't say ONLY at Taco Bell. :(
Because seriously, who wants to go to that place?
Unemployment is rising every time they look at the numbers. That's why the Dems are going to get their collective asses kicked on Nov 2.
 

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In a few elections when the Republicans are removed from the Congress, are still going to talking about how "The People" are sweeping the Dems aside forever in a "total rejection" of their philosophy?

Probably, but its going to be just as ridiculous then as it is now. If Reps or Dems really want to stay in power for longer they need to stop talking about every election as if its the end all be all of elections.
 

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It's good to run scared but despite Republican gains Democrats are once again showing considerable strength in early voting.

Excerpted from “Election Day is over for millions of early voters” By NANCY BENAC and LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer – Thu Oct 21, 10:38 am ET
[SIZE="+2"]E[/SIZE]lection Day is already over for more than 3 million Americans, and a surprising number of them are Democrats.

Republicans clearly are gaining ground in turning out early voters compared with their showing two years ago, but figures from the first batch of states that offer clues about 2010 early voting patterns still give Democrats an edge in a number of states and big counties. …
 

Deuce

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Unemployment is rising every time they look at the numbers. That's why the Dems are going to get their collective asses kicked on Nov 2.
Unemployment was rising far faster two years ago. The economy's trajectory then was best described as "nosedive." Now it's "wobbly gliding." Which would you prefer?

The economy is way too complex to just point at the current people in power, but the average voter doesn't know that.
 

apdst

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In a few elections when the Republicans are removed from the Congress, are still going to talking about how "The People" are sweeping the Dems aside forever in a "total rejection" of their philosophy?

Probably, but its going to be just as ridiculous then as it is now. If Reps or Dems really want to stay in power for longer they need to stop talking about every election as if its the end all be all of elections.
I think this is going to be on of the most historic elections in our history. It will be, when America stands as one and rejects Liberalism, outight.
 

soccerboy22

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What you want only young people and illegals to vote? Sure win for the democrats if that the case.

Smart people never eat at Taco Hell.
Psh you just don't understand how 5 dollars can feed you for a day.
 

Wiseone

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I think this is going to be on of the most historic elections in our history. It will be, when America stands as one and rejects Liberalism, outight.
Riiiight... This would be the same America which elected Obama in 2008 and elected Dems in 2006 and 2008? The same America that is going to deny, in all likelihood, Republicans control of the Senate in Nov?

I seem to remember similar statements when the Republicans controlled the House, Senate, and Executive, damn that would be embarrassing if those turned out to be crap.

The elections is going to be like any other, Americans getting angry at the party in power and replacing them with the other party until they get sick of them again.
 

Wiseone

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I think this is going to be on of the most historic elections in our history. It will be, when America stands as one and rejects Liberalism, outight.
O and "As one" you can't seriously suggest that America is that united against Liberalism?
 

soccerboy22

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I think this is going to be on of the most historic elections in our history. It will be, when America stands as one and rejects Liberalism, outight.
Until the next election that is and they vote out the conservatives.
 

winston53660

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Until the next election that is and they vote out the conservatives.

You might be to young for this but at one time Karl Rove was predicting a permanent R majority.
 

Cold Highway

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You might be to young for this but at one time Karl Rove was predicting a permanent R majority.
Except that Rove was right about a majority but not of the conservative majority, we have a majority its called the cult of statism. Where theft, death, spinelessness, oppression are all the rage for those of us not in the political class.
 
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