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Early predictions

S

Simpletruther

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Yes I know. It's way too early.

Trump wins the nomination. I think this is a given if he runs and the field is divided.

Only in a case where desantis alone challenges him could he possibly loose. But if others jump into the Frey and take votes from desantis trump wins.

In the general, it's much harder to predict. Against biden, I think Trump is the favorite.


Some people perceived trump badly over covid, and now realize much of it was overdone. Not to mention biden The "uniter" has gone full blown divider.

If biden is out, Apart from a new star rising for the dems that can stir people emotionally, I expect a close race.
I think the dems have a few new issues that give a slight advantage to trump, like drag queens for kids nonsense, boys beating girls in sports etc.

Of course the state of the economy in 2 years factors in heavily so this is just for kicks.
 
Simpletruther said:
Yes I know. It's way too early.

Trump wins the nomination. I think this is a given if he runs and the field is divided.

Only in a case where desantis alone challenges him could he possibly loose. But if others jump into the Frey and take votes from desantis trump wins.

In the general, it's much harder to predict. Against biden, I think Trump is the favorite.


Some people perceived trump badly over covid, and now realize much of it was overdone. Not to mention biden The "uniter" has gone full blown divider.

If biden is out, Apart from a new star rising for the dems that can stir people emotionally, I expect a close race.
I think the dems have a few new issues that give a slight advantage to trump, like drag queens for kids nonsense, boys beating girls in sports etc.

Of course the state of the economy in 2 years factors in heavily so this is just for kicks.
Click to expand...
In the Republican Party...right now...

Trump - 71%
DeSantis - 10%

If Trump runs...and he will run...DeSantis doesn't have a chance.
 
Mycroft said:
In the Republican Party...right now...

Trump - 71%
DeSantis - 10%

If Trump runs...and he will run...DeSantis doesn't have a chance.
Click to expand...

The key being "In the Republican Party"...
 
Mycroft said:
In the Republican Party...right now...

Trump - 71%
DeSantis - 10%

If Trump runs...and he will run...DeSantis doesn't have a chance.
Click to expand...
You may be right, but I think the OP was looking past that to the general election.

I've given up trying to understand how the leadership of the RNC thinks, but I believe the honest amongst them know what most of the country knows: Trump is simply unelectable and cannot possibly win in 2024. Conversely, Biden is imminently beatable by anyone other than Trump. Thus, how can the pubbies not at least secretly support a primary challenge to Trump- presumably from Desantis? Given that Trump and Desantis are both 2 peas in a rotten pod, the primary will be absolutely ugly and Desantis will do months of work that otherwise would be done by the DNC: trashing Trump for his inexcusable conduct/behavior. That will help ensure a Trump loss in the general.
 
BlueTex said:
The key being "In the Republican Party"...
Click to expand...
Yes.

And that means that DeSantis won't be facing any Democrat in a general election.
 
Simpletruther said:
Some people perceived trump badly over covid, and now realize much of it was overdone.
Click to expand...
Objectively, Trump did far more to harm Americans during the pandemic than to help.
Simpletruther said:
Not to mention biden The "uniter" has gone full blown divider.
Click to expand...
Wrong again. Biden is finally directly confronting the extremely divisive anti American, anti constitutional MAGAt movement that is threatening our representative democracy.
 
Prediction:

If Trump declares and runs, it divides the GOP and all but guarantees a DNC in the Oval after 2024 election.

The smartest thing the GOP could do would be to find non-MAGA candidates to run. It’s the only chance at winning the Oval.

And offer Trump something - assuage his ego and keep him completely OUT of the race.
 
Buckeyes85 said:
You may be right, but I think the OP was looking past that to the general election.
Click to expand...
DeSantis won't be involved in the general election.

Buckeyes85 said:
I've given up trying to understand how the leadership of the RNC thinks, but I believe the honest amongst them know what most of the country knows: Trump is simply unelectable and cannot possibly win in 2024. Conversely, Biden is imminently beatable by anyone other than Trump. Thus, how can the pubbies not at least secretly support a primary challenge to Trump- presumably from Desantis? Given that Trump and Desantis are both 2 peas in a rotten pod, the primary will be absolutely ugly and Desantis will do months of work that otherwise would be done by the DNC: trashing Trump for his inexcusable conduct/behavior. That will help ensure a Trump loss in the general.
Click to expand...
You really need to understand that there are two factions in the Republican Party: The Elites (Trump haters) and the rank and file (Trump supporters) The Elites have a lot of money, but they don't have any rank and file support. That belongs to Trump.

Trump and DeSantis are not "2 peas". DeSantis is akin to the entire Republican field of candidates in 2016...propped up by the Party Elites. These are the people that Trump kicked to the curb in 2016. The days of the Republican Party being controlled by those Elites is over. DeSantis won't be kicked to the curb...he won't even get on the road.

Now...regarding the 2024 general election, it doesn't matter who the Dem Elites put out there...the only way they can win is the same way Biden won in 2020: Election fraud.
 
Mycroft said:
You really need to understand that there are two factions in the Republican Party: The Elites (Trump haters) and the rank and file (Trump supporters) The Elites have a lot of money, but they don't have any rank and file support. That belongs to Trump.

Trump and DeSantis are not "2 peas". DeSantis is akin to the entire Republican field of candidates in 2016...propped up by the Party Elites. These are the people that Trump kicked to the curb in 2016. The days of the Republican Party being controlled by those Elites is over. DeSantis won't be kicked to the curb...he won't even get on the road.

Now...regarding the 2024 general election, it doesn't matter who the Dem Elites put out there...the only way they can win is the same way Biden won in 2020: Election fraud.
Click to expand...

Why is the GQP so incompetent that they can't prevent all this fraud or prove any of it in court?
 
Mycroft said:
DeSantis won't be involved in the general election.


You really need to understand that there are two factions in the Republican Party: The Elites (Trump haters) and the rank and file (Trump supporters) The Elites have a lot of money, but they don't have any rank and file support. That belongs to Trump.

Trump and DeSantis are not "2 peas". DeSantis is akin to the entire Republican field of candidates in 2016...propped up by the Party Elites. These are the people that Trump kicked to the curb in 2016. The days of the Republican Party being controlled by those Elites is over. DeSantis won't be kicked to the curb...he won't even get on the road.

Now...regarding the 2024 general election, it doesn't matter who the Dem Elites put out there...the only way they can win is the same way Biden won in 2020: Election fraud.
Click to expand...
It's impossible to engage a conspiracy theorist in meaningful discussion and it's my own stupidity for even trying.
 
Simpletruther said:
Yes I know. It's way too early.

Trump wins the nomination. I think this is a given if he runs and the field is divided.

Only in a case where desantis alone challenges him could he possibly loose. But if others jump into the Frey and take votes from desantis trump wins.

In the general, it's much harder to predict. Against biden, I think Trump is the favorite.


Some people perceived trump badly over covid, and now realize much of it was overdone. Not to mention biden The "uniter" has gone full blown divider.

If biden is out, Apart from a new star rising for the dems that can stir people emotionally, I expect a close race.
I think the dems have a few new issues that give a slight advantage to trump, like drag queens for kids nonsense, boys beating girls in sports etc.

Of course the state of the economy in 2 years factors in heavily so this is just for kicks.
Click to expand...
You have this today in a Trump vs. Biden matchup.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

This is exactly what a good majority of Americans don’t want. They don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to run again in 2024. 67% don’t want Biden to run again, 57% don’t want Trump to run again with 60% stating if the two did, they’d be open to vote for a moderate independent candidate.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...dont-want-trump-or-biden-to-run-in-2024-poll/

But since when did what most Americans want or wish for have any weight in the two major parties? They’re only concerned about their base while telling the rest of America to stick it where the sun don’t shine. Neither cares about America as a whole, only about their party’s base.

The solution is simple. If the Republicans run Trump, the democrats need to run someone other than Biden which would give them the win. If the Democrats run Biden, the Republicans need to run someone besides Trump for them to win.
 
RaleBulgarian said:
Objectively, Trump did far more to harm Americans during the pandemic than to help.

Wrong again. Biden is finally directly confronting the extremely divisive anti American, anti constitutional MAGAt movement that is threatening our representative democracy.
Click to expand...
Regsrdless of who's right, I think it is perceived that way and is a net positive for Trump, even if slight.
 
Buckeyes85 said:
You may be right, but I think the OP was looking past that to the general election.

I've given up trying to understand how the leadership of the RNC thinks, but I believe the honest amongst them know what most of the country knows: Trump is simply unelectable and cannot possibly win in 2024. Conversely, Biden is imminently beatable by anyone other than Trump. Thus, how can the pubbies not at least secretly support a primary challenge to Trump- presumably from Desantis? Given that Trump and Desantis are both 2 peas in a rotten pod, the primary will be absolutely ugly and Desantis will do months of work that otherwise would be done by the DNC: trashing Trump for his inexcusable conduct/behavior. That will help ensure a Trump loss in the general.
Click to expand...

That (bolded above) is why discussing a Biden vs. Trump 2024 general POTUS election is ridiculous. DNC primary voters would be foolish to count on RNC primary voters opting to (re)nominate Trump while RNC primary voters would be foolish counting on DNC primary voters to (re)nominate Biden.
 
NatMorton said:
This might be more hope than insight, but I think DeSantis beats Trump for the nomination.
Click to expand...
Even in a divided field of 4 or 5?

Trump will get his 40+% base no matter what.
 
Perotista said:
You have this today in a Trump vs. Biden matchup.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

This is exactly what a good majority of Americans don’t want. They don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to run again in 2024. 67% don’t want Biden to run again, 57% don’t want Trump to run again with 60% stating if the two did, they’d be open to vote for a moderate independent candidate.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...dont-want-trump-or-biden-to-run-in-2024-poll/

But since when did what most Americans want or wish for have any weight in the two major parties? They’re only concerned about their base while telling the rest of America to stick it where the sun don’t shine. Neither cares about America as a whole, only about their party’s base.

The solution is simple. If the Republicans run Trump, the democrats need to run someone other than Biden which would give them the win. If the Democrats run Biden, the Republicans need to run someone besides Trump for them to win.
Click to expand...

 
Mycroft said:
You really need to understand that there are two factions in the Republican Party: The Elites (Trump haters) and the rank and file (Trump supporters)
Click to expand...
You forget that the Pub Party also contains a few decent and patriotic Americans. These are the ones who rejected Trump in 2020 but elected downballot Pubs.

Try not to forget that the Pub Party still has a few decent voters left in it.
 
NatMorton said:
This might be more hope than insight, but I think DeSantis beats Trump for the nomination.
Click to expand...
Not telling you anything you don't already know, but for that to happen, the leadership of the RNC will have to make the difficult but inevitable decision to dump Trump and all his baggage.

Of course, that will certainly cause the petty and vindictive Trump to do everything in his power to turn voters away from Desantis or whomever the RNC endorses. Maybe even mount a doomed to fail run as an independent?

I suspect 2024 will be a rather unusual election in that an imminently beatable democratic candidate will be assured victory as a result of the republicans having previously sold their soul to the devil and permitted Trump to exercise nearly unfettered control of the party.
 
NatMorton said:
His redneck base will not carry the nomination. He needs much more than that.
Click to expand...
Not in a divided field I think.

But desantis is like trump.
But with intelligence and class. No calling others wives ugly and crazy tweets. So I too hope you are right.
 
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