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Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures.

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Climate Models Provide No Rational Basis for Predicting Future Global Average Temperature
“At the end of the Journey: Projection uncertainty grows much faster than any possible GHG signal.
Large systematic errors make projections of future Earth temperatures entirely unreliable.

“What do climate models reveal about future global average temperature? Nothing.

“What do climate models reveal about a human GHG fingerprint on the terrestrial climate? Nothing.”
An interesting take on modeling.
 

Quaestio

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures


From your link-

"E. Calvin Beisner, Ph.D., is Founder and National Spokesman of The Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation and a scholar on the application of Biblical worldview, theology, and ethics to economics, government, and public policy."

I haven't watched the video yet. Does it have anything to do with Noah, the Flood and Rainbows and god's promise to mankind? Or what the Bible reveals about predicting the weather?
 

longview

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

From your link-

"E. Calvin Beisner, Ph.D., is Founder and National Spokesman of The Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation and a scholar on the application of Biblical worldview, theology, and ethics to economics, government, and public policy."

I haven't watched the video yet. Does it have anything to do with Noah, the Flood and Rainbows and god's promise to mankind? Or what the Bible reveals about predicting the weather?
It is about the reliability and accuracy of the computer models.
 

Threegoofs

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

It is about the reliability and accuracy of the computer models.

You mean the ones which quite accurately predicted over 30 years ago that we would be living in the warmest decade ever recorded, and coincidentally, we are living in the warmest year and through much of it, the warmest month ever recorded?

You mean those models that missed by so much?

I guarantee that 30 years ago, you were insisting that temperatures would be as likely to decline as rise.
 

longview

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

You mean the ones which quite accurately predicted over 30 years ago that we would be living in the warmest decade ever recorded, and coincidentally, we are living in the warmest year and through much of it, the warmest month ever recorded?

You mean those models that missed by so much?

I guarantee that 30 years ago, you were insisting that temperatures would be as likely to decline as rise.
That is not what the lecture was about.
Perhaps you can enlighten us with your interpretation, oh wait, you likely did not watch the lecture?
 

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

That is not what the lecture was about.
Perhaps you can enlighten us with your interpretation, oh wait, you likely did not watch the lecture?

I've been around long enough to recognize denier nonsense by the title and Cornwall Alliance credentials.
 

shrubnose

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

IOW: All weather forecasts are total BS.

:lol:
 

longview

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

I've been around long enough to recognize denier nonsense by the title and Cornwall Alliance credentials.
So it is as I said, you have not watched the lecture, you feel compelled to comment about your lack of information.
 

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

So it is as I said, you have not watched the lecture, you feel compelled to comment about your lack of information.

I have the information- computer models 30 years ago, and reality now.

They match up pretty well.
 

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

IOW: All weather forecasts are total BS.

:lol:

Weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable much of the time but nevertheless do give us a general idea of how warm or cold it is likely to be and whether we can anticipate snow or rain or either is highly unlikely where we are. But I swear I think they are compiled by putting 10 meteorologists in a room and taking a vote on the likely temperature, precipitation likelihood, etc. for the next few days. If only three agree, you have a 30% chance; if six agree you have a 60% chance, etc.

But climate change is a whole different animal. And we with an open mind--you know those the leftwing environmental wacko types label 'deniers'--have long observed that their computer models are wholly inadequate to predict the climate we have now. And we think this leaves a lot of wiggle room on how much we should trust their forecasts for the future. And isn't it interesting that the degree of accuracy they claim seems to be fairly reliably based on how many dollars they are receiving in grant monies or direct payment from the government?
 

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

I have the information- computer models 30 years ago, and reality now.

They match up pretty well.
So still not willing to look at new information, I guess that is what passes for Science in your world.
Just ignore anything that disagrees with your preconceived reality.
 

longview

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

So the author doesn't know what the word "rational" means ?
I am not sure about the author, but the lecture by Dr. Patrick Frank is fairly good, about how he addresses the
uncertainty of the models.
 

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

So still not willing to look at new information, I guess that is what passes for Science in your world.
Just ignore anything that disagrees with your preconceived reality.

You remind me of a homeopathy salesman.

I guess I just deny science if I won't look at this study of 10x echinacea for melanoma!
 

longview

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

You remind me of a homeopathy salesman.

I guess I just deny science if I won't look at this study of 10x echinacea for melanoma!
As long as you only look at concepts that agree with what you already believe, your dogma is safe.
 

Absentglare

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

I am not sure about the author, but the lecture by Dr. Patrick Frank is fairly good, about how he addresses the
uncertainty of the models.

"Rational Analysis Provides No Rational Basis For Predicting Future Global Average Temperature"

No, i don't think the person who makes that claim has any idea what they're talking about.
 

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

As long as you only look at concepts that agree with what you already believe, your dogma is safe.

And you'll continue to waste your time mulling the impact of homeopathic medicine studies.
 

longview

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

And you'll continue to waste your time mulling the impact of homeopathic medicine studies.
I try to stick with real science, homeopathic medicine studies, seem to be your area, at least you talk about it a lot.
 

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I try to stick with real science, homeopathic medicine studies, seem to be your area, at least you talk about it a lot.

What? You're not going to even look at it?

Some open scientific mind you've got there. Just ignoring anything that doesn't fit your preconceived reality.

I guess it must be your dogma.
 

longview

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

What? You're not going to even look at it?

Some open scientific mind you've got there. Just ignoring anything that doesn't fit your preconceived reality.

I guess it must be your dogma.
It is not that, it is not an area of interest to me, and not relevant to this discussion.
With AGW, there are real scientist with alternative theories about the observed warming,
Or in Dr. Patrick Frank case, have brought forward concerns of our ability to project future temperature
with the available inputs. This is relevant to a discussion entitled,
Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures
.
Yet you want to discuss the topic without even viewing his lecture on what the weaknesses in the models are.
 

Threegoofs

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

It is not that, it is not an area of interest to me, and not relevant to this discussion.
With AGW, there are real scientist with alternative theories about the observed warming,
Or in Dr. Patrick Frank case, have brought forward concerns of our ability to project future temperature
with the available inputs. This is relevant to a discussion entitled,
.
Yet you want to discuss the topic without even viewing his lecture on what the weaknesses in the models are.

Well, from what it looks like to me, it's a chemist weighing in on criticizing climate modeling, which has all the gravitas of a brain surgeon criticizing paleontology.
 

longview

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

Well, from what it looks like to me, it's a chemist weighing in on criticizing climate modeling, which has all the gravitas of a brain surgeon criticizing paleontology.
I guess you will never know, unless you actually view the lecture.
 

Threegoofs

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

I guess you will never know, unless you actually view the lecture.

Much like I'll never know if sterile water that once touched a medication will not cure cancer.
 

Lord of Planar

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Re: Dr. Patrick Frank says the models are incapable of predicting future temperatures

From your link-

"E. Calvin Beisner, Ph.D., is Founder and National Spokesman of The Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation and a scholar on the application of Biblical worldview, theology, and ethics to economics, government, and public policy."

I haven't watched the video yet. Does it have anything to do with Noah, the Flood and Rainbows and god's promise to mankind? Or what the Bible reveals about predicting the weather?

LOL...

Dismiss right away with "poisoning the well" logical fallacy...

LOL...
 
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