Dow sinks below 23,000; Nasdaq flirts with a bear market; Oil in free fall

[Mycroft]

You don't care about Wall Street, why are you giving advice about Wall Street?

My advice is for those who do care about the stock market. You stay in it at your own peril.

The Fed seems happy to watch it go back down to pre-Trump levels. Are you?

 

[Atomic Kid]

https://us.cnn.com/2018/12/20/investing/dow-jones-nasdaq-oil-prices/index.html

New York (CNN Business) Fear of an economic slowdown is rocking Wall Street and the oil markets.

The Dow briefly plunged below 23,000 on Thursday and the Nasdaq is flirting with a bear market. US oil prices plummeted more than 4% to the lowest level since August 2017.
========================================
There have been a number of predictions of WS's bubble bursting, setting off the next Great Recession. We may be seeing the start of that this past week. Not good for Trump in 2020. Unemployed people tend to hold grudges that they act out at the voting booths.

Gas prices are plunging too, which is good for me. I have antique gold coins in my safety deposit box that are worth a lot more today because of the inverse price relationship between gold & oil: inevitably one goes up & the other goes down. It's like a Newtonian law of motion.

Why it's understandable that low gas prices is a positive thing for us regular folk. The President's advocacy for driving down the price of oil ever lower is just another example of how clueless this President is when it comes to big economic picture as currently the US is world's largest oil producer. So the economic benefits to us consumers, as much we enjoy them, likely does not outweigh the overall hit the US economy is taking on the loss in oil revenues and eventually that will end up costing us all.

 

[Mycroft]

Isn't the new talking point Main Street not Wall Street? I see them as being connected so you can't have one without the other.

They are connected. That's not the issue.

The issue is...do you want monetary policy that favors one over the other?

 

[Mycroft]

Why it's understandable that low gas prices is a positive thing for us regular folk. The President's advocacy for driving down the price of oil ever lower is just another example of how clueless this President is when it comes to big economic picture as currently the US is world's largest oil producer. So the economic benefits to us consumers, as much we enjoy them, likely does not outweigh the overall hit the US economy is taking on the loss in oil revenues and eventually that will end up costing us all.

The way you get around that hit you are worried about is by making more deals to sell oil products...like this one:

https://naturalgasnow.org/us-poland-ink-24-year-lng-deal-securing-energy-security/

 

[trixare4kids]

Not anywhere near as "artificial" if they were to do so now. At some point the Fed has to react to the financial data it sees being generated by massive the deficit and debt being driven upward by the Trump's tax policy and tariffs. Trump's impetuous du jour style of governance and policy making is creating a lot of doubts and confusion and Wall Street doesn't like it.

If the fed does not make a hike next month and/or the other three hikes next year, we are headed toward a recession, but this week, the rise happened because of a strong economy.
We are the world's largest economy and it is still rock solid, unemployment at record lows.
"The Fed raises rates in a strong economy to contain excesses, and cuts borrowing costs when the economy needs support."

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-fed-raises-interest-rates-2017-12

 

[Mycroft]

Can you explain how you would like the US to go about not being part of the global economy? How would that workout for us? Would you be happy if they closed all the ports and we only used items produced domestically? I just don't understand the anti global economy point of view.

Nothing wrong with "being part of the global economy"...as long as it is on terms that are beneficial to the US.

But that's the problem with the globalists...they don't care about the US. They only care about their own money.

 

[JacksinPA]

Why?
If Obama had a strong economy like we are seeing now, interest rates would have risen instead of being kept artificially at bay by Fed chair Janet Yellen.
The market is reacting to that rise, and all of this was eventually inevitable.
Nothing to see here...

Recovery from recession began under Obama & now Trump is riding the Obama wave.

 

[Mycroft]

We just went through this in the other thread, Mycroft.

One third of Americans have 401K's that they depend on for retirement. They can't just walk away from the market. As the market goes, so does their retirement. They and their retirement are married to the market.

Then they'd better put pressure on the Fed to stop screwing with their retirement.

 

[Greenbeard]

The market is reacting to that rise, and all of this was eventually inevitable.
Nothing to see here...

That much is true. Most of us could see the Trump Slump coming a mile away.

 

[Mach]

My advice is for those who do care about the stock market. You stay in it at your own peril.
The Fed seems happy to watch it go back down to pre-Trump levels. Are you?

You think everyone pulling out of the stock market would help the economy!?
You think it's wise for people to get their stock market advice from someone who said "who cares about the Wall Street"?
LOL.

If Trump hadn't absurdly tried to cling to economic success as his biggest presidential accomplishment, we wouldn't even be talking about flinging that smack right back to Trump, stuffing it in his mouth, and hoping he chokes (temporarily) on it.
Trump's a raging moronic accident, we're simply making lemonade out of the lemons coming from Trumps 24/7 lemon factory.

You claiming "who cares about Wall Street", the immediately caring about it, is just more lemonade.

 

[dobieg]

'We've only just begun...' - The Carpenters

lol

You can almost hear the glee in liberals' posts whenever they see anything negative about the economy. It's like they could care less if our country fails as long as it makes Trump look bad.

 

[Chomsky]

Yes, possibly they do.
The market is very volatile; up, down, up, down.
This week I think it's the interest rate rise, plus, investors sell off by the end of the year. The latter not unusual.

Yes, obviously there's a confluence of inputs giving market results. But Trump shutting down the government is causing a lot of uncertainty today. The Dow was only slightly down - but steady - all morning, until Trump's announcement of not signing the budget. Then it immediately took a dive and still is falling (600pts at the moment).

I earlier couldn't figure-out why Trump caved on the wall this week. Now, I believe it is likely in large part due to his realization he will tank the markets, and the markets are very important to him.

 

[Mycroft]

You think everyone pulling out of the stock market would help the economy!?
You think it's wise for people to get their stock market advice from someone who said "who cares about the Wall Street"?
LOL.

If Trump hadn't absurdly tried to cling to economic success as his biggest presidential accomplishment, we wouldn't even be talking about flinging that smack right back to Trump, stuffing it in his mouth, and hoping he chokes (temporarily) on it.
Trump's a raging moronic accident, we're simply making lemonade out of the lemons coming from Trumps 24/7 lemon factory.

You claiming "who cares about Wall Street", the immediately caring about it, is just more lemonade.

What makes you think I care about the stock market? Because I advise y'all to either pressure the Fed to stop their damaging actions? Or because I advise you to move out of the stock market if the Fed won't stop? Whatever you do is your choice. I don't care.

I don't think Main Street employers and employees care what you do, either. They are doing great.

 

[Mach]

What makes you think I care about the stock market? Because I advise y'all to either pressure the Fed to stop their damaging actions? Or because I advise you to move out of the stock market if the Fed won't stop? Whatever you do is your choice. I don't care

I'm imaging you saying this while fighting back tears in a desperate, cracking voice "I don't care..you guys...sniff...do whatever...sniff...I don't care".

See, the more you say you don't care, the more I think you really do, you're just conflicted about admitting it.

 

[JacksinPA]

lol

You can almost hear the glee in liberals' posts whenever they see anything negative about the economy. It's like they could care less if our country fails as long as it makes Trump look bad.

Yes, that is the basic idea. He is borderline senile, unqualified & incompetent. Next question?

 

[gulfman]

I miss the Obama economy.

This is the Obama economy

 

[Chomsky]

Not anywhere near as "artificial" if they were to do so now. At some point the Fed has to react to the financial data it sees being generated by massive deficit and debt being driven upward by the Trump's tax policy and tariffs. Trump's impetuous du jour style of governance and policy making is creating a lot of doubts and confusion and Wall Street doesn't like it.

I think it's possible Trump inherited the long Obama recovery near its end. The market was initially buoyed by the thoughts of tax cuts, and then when the cuts came they produced a brief sugar high, perhaps juicing and/or extending the economic recovery further or at higher levels then it might go otherwise.

Of course the tax cuts were predominately spent on stock buy-backs, further buoying the market without producing substantial long-lasting capital investment. Now that the sugar high is over, we are back to market fundamentals. So we'll see where we really are at, but only too a point. Trump has to keep government running, and end his trade wars, before we'll know exactly where we are at. These last two (tariffs & shutdowns) are causing a deleterious affect on the market

 

[trixare4kids]

Recovery from recession began under Obama & now Trump is riding the Obama wave.

View attachment 67246380

Obama's economy was stagnant for the most part toward the end of his term. Look at your chart. Job creation was declining.

Sorry Obama, But It's Trump's Economic Boom, Not Yours

For eight years, President Obama presided over the worst economic recovery in modern times. For six years, he blamed Republicans in Congress for thwarting his spending agenda and hampering growth. In his last two years in office, he claimed that 2% growth was the best we could hope for. And in his last year in office, while the economy was again stalling out, Obama claimed that Trump's tax cuts and deregulation would only make things worse.

But now that we're in the midst of a booming economy — which kicked in after Trump reversed almost all Obama's economic policies — we're supposed to believe that it's Obama who deserves all the credit.

Obama's Dismal Economic Record Looks Even Worse When Compared To Reagan

When fewer people are working and wages are stagnant, incomes don't grow. That's the real sorry story of the Obama era. If the Obama recovery had been just average, in other words a C grade, JEC calculates that "after-tax per person income would be $3,339 (2009 dollars) per year higher.‎" Families can no longer be fooled with happy talk about "hope and change." They feel the tough times.

The JEC's dreary conclusion tells the whole story of the era of Obamanomics: ‎"On economic growth the Obama recovery ranks dead last."

One other statistic that stands out on the Obama record as we begin his last year in office. The debt is nearly $19 trillion and by the time he leaves office our indebtedness will be almost double where it was when he entered the Oval Office. Just the interest payments alone cost half a trillion dollars a year.

 

[trixare4kids]

Yes, obviously there's a confluence of inputs giving market results. But Trump shutting down the government is causing a lot of uncertainty today. The Dow was only slightly down - but steady - all morning, until Trump's announcement of not signing the budget. Then it immediately took a dive and still is falling (600pts at the moment).

I earlier couldn't figure-out why Trump caved on the wall this week. Now, I believe it is likely in large part due to his realization he will tank the markets, and the markets are very important to him.

I don't think Trump is caving on the wall....
We'll see soon enough.

 

[tres borrachos]

This is the Obama economy

President Obama brought down unemployment. That's refreshing to see a Trump fan give Obama credit for that.

 

[Phys251]

This is the Obama economy

Nope :lamo it's your boy tRump's now!

Go here: https://www.usatoday.com/money/lookup/index/I:DJI/

And use the chart tools, if you know how, to note the stark difference between trends before and after late January 2018.

 

[Phys251]

Then they'd better put pressure on the Fed to stop screwing with their retirement.

Why does it matter? Who cares about Wall Street?

 

[Chomsky]

You think everyone pulling out of the stock market would help the economy!?
You think it's wise for people to get their stock market advice from someone who said "who cares about the Wall Street"?
LOL.

If Trump hadn't absurdly tried to cling to economic success as his biggest presidential accomplishment, we wouldn't even be talking about flinging that smack right back to Trump, stuffing it in his mouth, and hoping he chokes (temporarily) on it.
Trump's a raging moronic accident, we're simply making lemonade out of the lemons coming from Trumps 24/7 lemon factory.

You claiming "who cares about Wall Street", the immediately caring about it, is just more lemonade.

But I must ask:

"Are those domestically grown lemons"?

Because Trump is notorious for using overseas products and workers.

 

[Chomsky]

This is the Obama economy

That's pretty rich, at two years in.

 

[washunut]

Yes, obviously there's a confluence of inputs giving market results. But Trump shutting down the government is causing a lot of uncertainty today. The Dow was only slightly down - but steady - all morning, until Trump's announcement of not signing the budget. Then it immediately took a dive and still is falling (600pts at the moment).

I earlier couldn't figure-out why Trump caved on the wall this week. Now, I believe it is likely in large part due to his realization he will tank the markets, and the markets are very important to him.

First the markets are very important for many Americans, thus the crazy tweets from Trump taking credit for its rise.

Not sure anyone thinks a shutdown will be a meaningful economic event. Rather look at where the market was when Powell started to speak yesterday to where it is now straight down.

Not sure why people put aside the axiom "don't fight the Fed". For a decade the Fed had the market's back. Powell pretty much yesterday pretty much said that is over.

There are other reasons of course. Tariffs hurt a bit, government dysfunction,price of oil way down etc.