Dow Jones down 400 points on trade fears after Chinese tech exec's arrest

[TU Curmudgeon]

TL; DR

I’m curious what will happen next, but am not worried about pissing off the Chinese.

I've already posted links to the Canada/US Extradition Treaty, but the most "interesting" aspect of it is that the Minister does not HAVE To issue the deportation order (the Courts cannot issue one) if the Minister doesn't feel like doing it (which is what

... the surrender would be unjust or oppressive having regard to all the relevant circumstances ...
​

actually means.

[NOTE - "Unjust", "oppressive", "having regard", "all", and "relevant circumstances" are what is known in the trade as "weasel words" and they can mean anything that you want them to mean on any given day - even if that meaning is the complete opposite of the meaning that you used 10 minutes previously).]

You might want to consider that the situation is analogous to "You want to buy something that I don't have to sell? OK, what's your offer? I'll get back to you after I see what someone else wants to offer for it - maybe.".

 

[Divine_Wind]

I've already posted links to the Canada/US Extradition Treaty, but the most "interesting" aspect of it is that the Minister does not HAVE To issue the deportation order (the Courts cannot issue one) if the Minister doesn't feel like doing it (which is what

... the surrender would be unjust or oppressive having regard to all the relevant circumstances ...
​

actually means.

[NOTE - "Unjust", "oppressive", "having regard", "all", and "relevant circumstances" are what is known in the trade as "weasel words" and they can mean anything that you want them to mean on any given day - even if that meaning is the complete opposite of the meaning that you used 10 minutes previously).]

You might want to consider that the situation is analogous to "You want to buy something that I don't have to sell? OK, what's your offer? I'll get back to you after I see what someone else wants to offer for it - maybe.".

I’m not worried.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

All possible and all based on the FACT that the United States of America constitutes ONLY (around) 5% of the POTENTIAL market.

The numbers work out sort of like this (bearing in mind that the numbers I'm using I'm also making up for illustrative purposes)

1. If you spend $1,000,000,000 to increase your share of 5% of the market from 20% to 22% you get a return of 25000000.
2. If you spend $1,000,000,000 to increase your share of 95% of the market from 20% to 22%, you get a return of 475000000
3. The return on Option 2 (above) is 19 times the return on Option 1 (above).
4. Smart management says to opt for Option 2 (above).
5. If opting for Option 2 (above) means that you can reduce your costs by 50% then the actual improvement achieved by going with Option 2 (above) is 38 times as great as Option 1 (above) would have produced.

The US wouldn't be so much "isolated" as "rendered irrelevant" (as far as the Chinese [and, potentially, everyone else] are concerned)

Isolated, irrelevant, tomato, "to-mah-to", I'll gladly edit to say "irrelevant" because it is the better word.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I’m not worried.

Nor should you be. At least not as long as you neither consume anything that comes from China nor produce anything that goes to China.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Isolated, irrelevant, tomato, "to-mah-to", I'll gladly edit to say "irrelevant" because it is the better word.

I thought so too.

I mean, Angola is not "isolated" from the world economy, but it sure is "irrelevant" as far as the world economy is concerned.

 

[Mycroft]

China demanded Canada release the Huawei executive arrested at the request of US authorities, saying she was arrested without an explanation of the charge which could violate her human rights.

But Canadian law dictates that people who have been arrested or detained are given a reason. McLeod told Business Insider that Canada could not provide more details about the arrest as there "is a publication ban in effect" that was "sought by Ms. Meng."

https://www.businessinsider.com/chi...ease-arrested-huawei-cfo-meng-wanzhou-2018-12

Does Canada have the balls to stand up against China?

 

[Atomic Kid]

Does Canada have the balls to stand up against China?

If you knew anything about Canadians and their history you would know that one thing they are not lacking in is balls.

 

[Mycroft]

If you knew anything about Canadians and their history you would know that one thing they are not lacking in is balls.

I know they didn't have the balls to stand against Trump.

 

[Atomic Kid]

I know they didn't have the balls to stand against Trump.

Come off it. Canada thinks thinks of Trump as being a surly clown.

 

[Mycroft]

Come off it. Canada thinks thinks of Trump as being a surly clown.

Doesn't matter what they think of him. What matters is what they did.

 

[Atomic Kid]

Doesn't matter what they think of him. What matters is what they did.

In you r dreams. They basically went round and round for pretty much nothing as except for a couple minors changes the 'new' NAFTA is pretty much the same NAFTA. And he's probably only one or two tweets away from sending it off the rails again. We know one thing for sure and that is that Canadian leaders aren't afraid a little rain.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Does Canada have the balls to stand up against China?

Are you actually asking "Do the Canadian government and courts have the fortitude to actually apply Canadian law in Canada?".

PS - The "reason" for the arrest was "We have received a request from the US government that you be taken into custody (pending determination on bail) and that a hearing be held to determine whether or not the request from the US government that you be extradited to the US has sufficient merit to warrant a submission to the Minister of Justice that such an order be made.".

But, of course, someone who is totally ignorant of the law wouldn't know that.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I know they didn't have the balls to stand against Trump.

You might want to actually read what is in NAFTA 2.0 (including the bits that Mr. Trump said had to be left out or there would be no deal).

 

[Mycroft]

Are you actually asking "Do the Canadian government and courts have the fortitude to actually apply Canadian law in Canada?".

No. That's not what I'm asking.

I'm asking if Canada will knuckle under when China starts applying trade and economic pressure that hurts Canadians.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

No. That's not what I'm asking.

I'm asking if Canada will knuckle under when China starts applying trade and economic pressure that hurts Canadians.

Well, the Canadian government didn't knuckle under when the US did it and the US market is a much bigger part of the Canadian economy than the Chinese market is.

I am well aware of the facts that:

1. IF the Canadian government applies Canadian law and GRANTS the US request for extradition, THEN you will take the position that the Canadian government "knuckled under" to the US government; and
2. IF the Canadian government applies Canadian law and REFUSES the US request for extradition, THEN you will take the position that the Canadian government "knuckled under" to the Chinese government.

I am equally well aware that your position is that NO country in the entire world is allowed to do anything that the President of the United States of America tells them they cannot do.

I'm also sure that you would interpret the actions of the Canadian government as "selling out" if the Canadian government applied Canadian law and then received "favourable considerations" from whichever of the US or the PRC the woman ended up going to.

In short, your position is, invariably, EVERY OTHER country is ALWAYS WRONG - regardless of what they do.

 

[Divine_Wind]

Nor should you be. At least not as long as you neither consume anything that comes from China nor produce anything that goes to China.

I do but still not worried. You are free to fret, pull your hair and cry in anguish over this, but in my experience 90% of this is just posturing and politics. It’ll all work out because neither side wants a trade war much less an actual one.

 

[Mycroft]

Well, the Canadian government didn't knuckle under when the US did it...

Actually, the Canadian government did.

They had no intention of making changes to NAFTA. Trump put them in a position where they HAD to come to the table and conduct negotiations when he created a deal with AMLO. Trump put them in a position where they HAD to sign on to the USMCA, even though that's the last thing they wanted.

Oh, sure...Trump tossed them a bone or two...that's how negotiations work...but make no mistake: The Canadian government knuckled under.

So again...what do you think will happen if the Chinese government starts applying pressure?

 

[Disraeli]

Yeah the Canadians really knuckled under. They opened up a massive 3% of their dairy market.

Typical bluff and bluster with nothing to show at the end of the day. It's like a magic trick, it only works if you want to be fooled.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Actually, the Canadian government did.

They had no intention of making changes to NAFTA. Trump put them in a position where they HAD to come to the table and conduct negotiations when he created a deal with AMLO. Trump put them in a position where they HAD to sign on to the USMCA, even though that's the last thing they wanted.

Oh, sure...Trump tossed them a bone or two...that's how negotiations work...but make no mistake: The Canadian government knuckled under.

So again...what do you think will happen if the Chinese government starts applying pressure?

I'm sure that that is what FOX News tells you to believe your opinion is.

The fact of the matter is that Mr. Trump said that he would NEVER agree to any new NAFTA that didn't give American courts the sole power to resolve any trade disputes under American law (which includes the power of the President of the United States of America to order cases that the President of the United States of America doesn't want heard dismissed on the grounds that "continuation of this case will harm America's national security interests").

Guess what?

Since BOTH the US government and the Chinese government are "applying pressure", I rather suspect that the Canadian government will do what it thinks is in the best interests of Canada.

Oh, BTW, you do know that the American Ambassador to China has been "called in" to meet with the Chinese Foreign Minister and that the Chinese government is promising "stringent measures" in response to the US government's actions.

So, what do you think will happen now that the Chinese government is actually applying pressure on the US government?

Do you think that Mr. Trump will persist with the arrest/deportation request (at the cost of even more [accurately] targeted) Chinese tariffs, or do you think that Mr. Trump will order that the arrest/deportation request be withdrawn?

Hell, the simplest solution is to fly the woman to neutral territory and let the Americans and the Chinese fight it out over there.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Yeah the Canadians really knuckled under. They opened up a massive 3% of their dairy market.

Typical bluff and bluster with nothing to show at the end of the day. It's like a magic trick, it only works if you want to be fooled.

I hate to disagree, but that was actually a **M*A*S*S*I*V*E** 0.03%.

 

[Grand Mal]

I'm sure that that is what FOX News tells you to believe your opinion is.

The fact of the matter is that Mr. Trump said that he would NEVER agree to any new NAFTA that didn't give American courts the sole power to resolve any trade disputes under American law (which includes the power of the President of the United States of America to order cases that the President of the United States of America doesn't want heard dismissed on the grounds that "continuation of this case will harm America's national security interests").

Guess what?

Since BOTH the US government and the Chinese government are "applying pressure", I rather suspect that the Canadian government will do what it thinks is in the best interests of Canada.

Oh, BTW, you do know that the American Ambassador to China has been "called in" to meet with the Chinese Foreign Minister and that the Chinese government is promising "stringent measures" in response to the US government's actions.

So, what do you think will happen now that the Chinese government is actually applying pressure on the US government?

Do you think that Mr. Trump will persist with the arrest/deportation request (at the cost of even more [accurately] targeted) Chinese tariffs, or do you think that Mr. Trump will order that the arrest/deportation request be withdrawn?

Hell, the simplest solution is to fly the woman to neutral territory and let the Americans and the Chinese fight it out over there.

I predict the US will back off on the extradition request, tossing Canada under the bus. There should have been a delay, a late phone call or something, that allowed her to make her plane connection. Anyone who deals with the US these days needs to have their back covered.

 

[Disraeli]

What about the fact that Bolton claimed he was aware that the arrest was imminent and did not see fit to inform Trump before the meeting with Xi in Argentina?

There's a whole buncha stuff there that's just all messed up.

Trump may well insist that the U.S. back off on the extradition request because he is reportedly fixated on the stock market. Rapid resolution of this should be good for a 500 point pop....for a day. But regardless, it's a cluster.

 

[Mycroft]

I'm sure that that is what FOX News tells you to believe your opinion is.

The fact of the matter is that Mr. Trump said that he would NEVER agree to any new NAFTA that didn't give American courts the sole power to resolve any trade disputes under American law (which includes the power of the President of the United States of America to order cases that the President of the United States of America doesn't want heard dismissed on the grounds that "continuation of this case will harm America's national security interests").

Guess what?

Since BOTH the US government and the Chinese government are "applying pressure", I rather suspect that the Canadian government will do what it thinks is in the best interests of Canada.

Oh, BTW, you do know that the American Ambassador to China has been "called in" to meet with the Chinese Foreign Minister and that the Chinese government is promising "stringent measures" in response to the US government's actions.

So, what do you think will happen now that the Chinese government is actually applying pressure on the US government?

Do you think that Mr. Trump will persist with the arrest/deportation request (at the cost of even more [accurately] targeted) Chinese tariffs, or do you think that Mr. Trump will order that the arrest/deportation request be withdrawn?

Hell, the simplest solution is to fly the woman to neutral territory and let the Americans and the Chinese fight it out over there.

That would certainly be the simplest solution for Canada, since they are on the hot seat.

As far as Trump reacting to pressure from China, keep in mind that Trump can...and will...increase tariffs if the Chinese don't abide by Xi's agreement. When it comes to China putting pressure on the US, that pressure is minimal.

Not so for Canada.

 

[Mycroft]

What about the fact that Bolton claimed he was aware that the arrest was imminent and did not see fit to inform Trump before the meeting with Xi in Argentina?

There's a whole buncha stuff there that's just all messed up.

Trump may well insist that the U.S. back off on the extradition request because he is reportedly fixated on the stock market. Rapid resolution of this should be good for a 500 point pop....for a day. But regardless, it's a cluster.

Trump very well may back off on the extradition request, but not because of the stock market. Trump doesn't care about that. No, if he does back off, it'll be because it's advantageous to his negotiations with China. In other words, it'll be because the Chinese gave something up.

 

[Atomic Kid]

That would certainly be the simplest solution for Canada, since they are on the hot seat.

As far as Trump reacting to pressure from China, keep in mind that Trump can...and will...increase tariffs if the Chinese don't abide by Xi's agreement. When it comes to China putting pressure on the US, that pressure is minimal.

Not so for Canada.

What agreement? Trump doesn't have any signed documents of agreement with the Chinese government. You would think you would figure out by now that just because Trump says something exists doesn't mean that any such thing actually exists. Matter of fact it usually proves not to be the case.