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Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next election

How accurate do you think Nate Silver's assertions are?


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Zyphlin

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Nate Silver had an interesting piece up over at the temporary home of FiveThirtyEight, on the Grantland site. In it, he gives his views regarding the coverage and ramifications of the shut down. Some of this thoughts:

That's been my impression of the coverage of the shutdown: The folks you see on TV are much too sure of themselves. They've been making too much of thin slices of polling and thinner historical precedents that might not apply this time around. There's been plenty of bull****, in other words. We really don't know all that much about how the shutdown is going to be resolved, or how the long-term political consequences are going to play out.

So what can we say? What follows are a series of points that I consider to be on relatively firm ground. Some are critiques of the conventional wisdom; some are points of context; some concern relatively fine details of the situation; some are obvious things that I don't think have been emphasized quite enough. None of them constitute a prediction of how the shutdown is going to turn out, or exactly what the political fallout will be. But perhaps they can serve as useful guidance as you read coverage of the shutdown elsewhere.

1. The media is probably overstating the magnitude of the shutdown's political impact.

2. The impact of the 1995-96 shutdowns is overrated in Washington's mythology.

3. Democrats face extremely unfavorable conditions in trying to regain the House.

4. The polling data on the shutdown is not yet all that useful, and we lack data on most important measures of voter preferences.

5. President Obama's change in tactics may be less about a change of heart and more about a change in incentives.

6. The increasing extent of GOP partisanship is without strong recent precedent, and contributes to the systemic uncertainty about political outcomes.

He goes into detail on all of those 6 points at the actual article, which you can find linked HERE

Some on the left seem to be championing to the hills the notion that this is essentially the end of the Republican Party and that they've committed electoral suicide. On the flip side, some on the right seem to think that this will actually help the Republicans because people are supposedly so against ACA and are upset with how the shutdown is being handled.

However, from reading Silver's piece it seems he has a view that the negative effect will be relatively light compared to the way that it's being made out in much of the media at the moment. What is your take on Silver's views?
 

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

I think Nate Silver is pretty accurate here. As long as the shutdown ends quickly, there will be many more news cycles between now and 2014 that will make most voters completely forget about the shutdown. So I think Nate's right when he says that the effects of this shutdown and the ones in the 90s are overstated by the media. The only thing that may change this is if the government shutdown actually does last a lot longer than the shutdown in 1996, although that doesn't seem likely as it sounds like we're getting closer to a deal.
 

Redress

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

There is probably alot of truth in that. With elections being over a year away, I doubt this is going to be a major factor in them. We have seen, time and again, that when the issues are laid out, the one the majority of people vote on is economic issues(Nov 2012 it was 59 % considered it the most important issue, health care was second at 18 %), which unless this drags on an extended period of time won't be a factor next November. Barring something shocking, Democrats are not going to regain the house in 2014 will struggle at best to retain the senate. The polling data only really shows that people are unhappy about the shutdown and every one is taking a hit in some polls. GOP partisanship is through the roof to the point of almost being a parody.

Point 5 is interesting but I hate trying to guess motivations for people. They tend to be complex and opaque.
 

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

I read that piece last night. Looks pretty spot-on to me. Even when Silver steps out of his statistical models and offers his own analysis of the situation, he brings with it a pragmatism and rationality that's often lost on both sides of the ideological divide.
 

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

I agree with all, but think #2 doesn't tell the full story. Though I do not think the shutdown in '95 was extremely harmful to the GOP in and of itself, it did reinforce the narrative of a GOP that was extreme and extremely partisan when combined with things like the various conspiracy theories and the Contract on America, etc.

In a similar way, this shutdown can reinforce a similar narrative about a GOP which wants to create political fights for the sake of partisanship.
 

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

There is no way to accurately assess the true results of the "shutdown" because our childlike president has created a huge number of artificial shutdown results to punish the American people for not letting him have his way. Who can say what the real results, if any, might be?

Certainly not such things as blocking off one side of the highway so nobody can see Mt. Rushmore.

It's funny when you think about it. What a silly f'kr.
 

Kobie

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

There is no way to accurately assess the true results of the "shutdown" because our childlike president has created a huge number of artificial shutdown results to punish the American people for not letting him have his way. Who can say what the real results, if any, might be?

Certainly not such things as blocking off one side of the highway so nobody can see Mt. Rushmore.

Which didn't happen.
snopes.com: Spiteful Obama Blocks Off View of Mt. Rushmore
 

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Kobie

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

Let us attempt to retain a semblance of honesty. The Snopes article says Obama didn't cover Mt. Rushmore with a sheet held up by a helicopter.

Read further down.
 

CanadaJohn

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

Nate Silver had an interesting piece up over at the temporary home of FiveThirtyEight, on the Grantland site. In it, he gives his views regarding the coverage and ramifications of the shut down. Some of this thoughts:



He goes into detail on all of those 6 points at the actual article, which you can find linked HERE

Some on the left seem to be championing to the hills the notion that this is essentially the end of the Republican Party and that they've committed electoral suicide. On the flip side, some on the right seem to think that this will actually help the Republicans because people are supposedly so against ACA and are upset with how the shutdown is being handled.

However, from reading Silver's piece it seems he has a view that the negative effect will be relatively light compared to the way that it's being made out in much of the media at the moment. What is your take on Silver's views?

Silver is right in that the media loves to play up the "threat" to life as we know it based on politics in Washington. Love the CNN tickers of shutdown days in progress and hours to the debt ceiling deadline. Nothing like a good Armageddon scenario for CNN and particularly the breathless Wolf Blitzer.

That said, I've seen reports that indicate there are only about 20 to 30 House seats that are competitive and could possibly change and most of those are actually held by Democrats now. There isn't a chance in hell the House isn't in Republican control after the mid-term. In addition, history tells you that the party of the President serving out the end of his lame duck term loses seats in the second term mid-term. Obama's Presidency may be historical in some senses, but not in its ability to carry favorable outcomes for House/Senate/State races.

Whether or not the Senate turns from Democrat to Republican will depend entirely on how bad the Obamacare rollout is over the next 12 months, not the shutdown.
 

Ray410

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

Read further down.

Read the whole thing. Your post is still wrong.
 

Kobie

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

Read the whole thing. Your post is still wrong.

I did read the whole thing. People can still see Mount Rushmore.
 

azgreg

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

I did read the whole thing. People can still see Mount Rushmore.

It's different though when you can't stand at the sign explaining who the dudes on the hill are. :)
 

Ray410

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

I did read the whole thing. People can still see Mount Rushmore.

Did you see the picture of the highway cone barriers and the last sentence that says the best viewing sites have been blocked?
 

Kobie

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

Did you see the picture of the highway cone barriers and the last sentence that says the best viewing sites have been blocked?

Yep. You said "nobody can see Mount Rushmore." This is false.

That said, this is a government shutdown. The National Park Service is part of the government.
 

Ray410

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

Yep. You said "nobody can see Mount Rushmore." This is false.

That said, this is a government shutdown. The National Park Service is part of the government.

Wrong again, the road where the cones are is a state highway.
 

Deuce

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

If there's one thing the last couple elections have shown, it's that Nate Silver is really, really good at math.

And I tend to agree with him here. People have short attention sp
 

Kobie

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

If there's one thing the last couple elections have shown, it's that Nate Silver is really, really good at math.

And I tend to agree with him here. People have short attention sp

I-See-What-You-Did-There..png


Well played.
 

rathi

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

Silver's analysis fails to account for the change in attitudes of political donors. The reckless of the tea party is the exact opposite of what major financial interests want in government. A large number of industries are going to have to re-evaluate their relationship with the Republican party if they threaten their bottom line. The U.S. chamber of commerce for example, is seriously unhappy about the current situation. The kind of money that corporates backers put up (or don't put up) can seriously shift elections.
 

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

Nate Silver had an interesting piece up over at the temporary home of FiveThirtyEight, on the Grantland site. In it, he gives his views regarding the coverage and ramifications of the shut down. Some of this thoughts:

He goes into detail on all of those 6 points at the actual article, which you can find linked HERE

Some on the left seem to be championing to the hills the notion that this is essentially the end of the Republican Party and that they've committed electoral suicide. On the flip side, some on the right seem to think that this will actually help the Republicans because people are supposedly so against ACA and are upset with how the shutdown is being handled.

However, from reading Silver's piece it seems he has a view that the negative effect will be relatively light compared to the way that it's being made out in much of the media at the moment. What is your take on Silver's views?

I hadn't seen this before this post. But this makes sense and jives with what I was thinking, knowing how forgetful voters are and how early in the game we are at this point. Since the media (which is NOT a liberal media) is 24-7 these days, they tend to harp on and exaggerate every news story that comes along. There's no doubt the GOP are acting insane, letting a novice whose only concern is himself lead the party down a useless path, and that this is having, and will have in the future, negative consequences for some of them. But this news story will fade in time, there will be another story, and voters will forget this debacle. Most don't remember the last one or the one before that.

The Democrats have a long row to hoe in gaining many seats in the House over the shutdown. Mainly because of gerrymandering. But regardless of the reason, it is what it is. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if they pick up some seats directly because of this debacle by the Republicans.
 

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

Read the entire article and it made a lot of sense to me. We still have over a year till the election and people have short memories. And as Silver pointed out, there are very few competitive races in the House. Which that combined with the strong historical trend of the President's party losing seats (or at most winning a small handful) makes it very unlikely the Democrats will regain control of the House.

Personally, I think this so called shutdown is one of the most overhyped political stories in recent history. The vast majority of the federal government is still up and running and hardly anyone's lives have been dramatically impacted by the areas that have been "shutdown". Reminds me of the scary "draconian" sequester budget cuts were all told to fear which seem to have been implemented without causing an economic apocalypse. Frankly, I hope the shutdown drags on and on and people might realize, "Hey, we're getting along just fine without this extra spending. Maybe we should make some of these cuts permanent." But I'm probably hoping for too much there. :roll:
 

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

Personally, I think this so called shutdown is one of the most overhyped political stories in recent history. The vast majority of the federal government is still up and running and hardly anyone's lives have been dramatically impacted by the areas that have been "shutdown". Reminds me of the scary "draconian" sequester budget cuts were all told to fear which seem to have been implemented without causing an economic apocalypse. Frankly, I hope the shutdown drags on and on and people might realize, "Hey, we're getting along just fine without this extra spending. Maybe we should make some of these cuts permanent." But I'm probably hoping for too much there. :roll:

Personally, I think you're just closing your eyes and plugging your ears. Nope! I can't see the people getting hurt, must not be any!
 

Dr. Chuckles

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

There is probably alot of truth in that. With elections being over a year away, I doubt this is going to be a major factor in them. We have seen, time and again, that when the issues are laid out, the one the majority of people vote on is economic issues(Nov 2012 it was 59 % considered it the most important issue, health care was second at 18 %), which unless this drags on an extended period of time won't be a factor next November. Barring something shocking, Democrats are not going to regain the house in 2014 will struggle at best to retain the senate. The polling data only really shows that people are unhappy about the shutdown and every one is taking a hit in some polls. GOP partisanship is through the roof to the point of almost being a parody.

Point 5 is interesting but I hate trying to guess motivations for people. They tend to be complex and opaque.

If you take a critical view of Obama's first term, it was all about not rocking the boat and avoiding political controversy at all cost. Again, the perfect example of this was his absence in the healthcare debate.


It was like watching a boxer who's strategy is to not lose, as opposed for one working towards victory
 

Deuce

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

If you take a critical view of Obama's first term, it was all about not rocking the boat and avoiding political controversy at all cost. Again, the perfect example of this was his absence in the healthcare debate.


It was like watching a boxer who's strategy is to not lose, as opposed for one working towards victory

So he wasn't ramming a radical leftist agenda down our throats?
 

Dr. Chuckles

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Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

So he wasn't ramming a radical leftist agenda down our throats?

do you ever actually respond to the content people write, or do you just constantly demand that people account for the various Caricatures you generate in your head? Seriously, you're like a left wing Bronson
 
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