Do the Democrats have a short term vs. long term thinking problem?
Doing away with the filibuster could give the Democrats a short-term advantage but be poisonous long term.
First an example of short-term Democratic thinking. The Democrats led by ex-senate Majority Leader Harry Reid precedence setting use of the nuclear option. Yes, it gave the Democrats a big short-term political advantage until they lost the senate. Long term, that short term political advantage lead to a Republican advantage as the GOP used the nuclear option to confirm Kavanaugh and Barrett to the SCOTUS. Without the nuclear option, the 60-vote cloture rule would have been in force, neither would have been confirmed. So, the democrats and ex-majority leader Senator Harry Reid’s precedence setting first use of the nuclear option led directly to Kavanaugh and Barrett’s confirmation giving the SCOTUS a conservative ideological bent.
Back to the filibuster, I noticed that states no longer divide their senators of having one a piece from each party as most did in the past. Red states are most likely to have two Republican senators, blue states, two democratic ones. This is especially true in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the mega, ultra-high partisanship. With the closeness of the house and a 50-50 split senate, completely doing away with the filibuster no doubt would benefit the Democrats as they hold the presidency and control the senate today. But what about the future?
In today’s political era, let’s look at the prospects of the senate. There are 23 states Trump won by 5 points or more vs. 19 won by Biden by 5 points or more. With the polarization trend continuing chances are those 23 states won by Trump will soon have 46 GOP senators vs the 38 senators from states Biden won by 5 points or more. This leaves just 8, shall we call battleground states which could send either one senator from each party, two from one party or two from the other. For my purposes here, let’s say these final 8 states split their senators, one each from each party. That brings the total to 54 Republicans, 46 Democrats. Of course things happen and change, one party or the other can make voters mad at them, I’m talking independents where one party or the other can pick up the majority of those senators from the battleground states. To gain control if our modern era of polarization, the great divide and mega, ultra-high partisanship continues, the Democrats would have to win both senate seats from 5 of those battleground states where the parties are fairly evenly split to reach 51. A real possibility, but one with the odds against it. It would be just as possible for the GOP to win 2 senators from 5 of the battleground states.
What the numbers tell me is for the Democrats doing away with the filibuster, they may do away with the minority party protection that they will want and need in the future. Short term thinking vs. long term thinking. Schumer has stated on numerous occasions that utilizing the nuclear option was one of his and the Democrats biggest mistakes. Which is understandable since it led directly to Kavanaugh and Barrett becoming members of the SCOTUS. It should also be noted that Reid has no regrets over his precedence setting first use.
I’m just playing with numbers here, but the above is what the numbers are telling me.
Doing away with the filibuster could give the Democrats a short-term advantage but be poisonous long term.
First an example of short-term Democratic thinking. The Democrats led by ex-senate Majority Leader Harry Reid precedence setting use of the nuclear option. Yes, it gave the Democrats a big short-term political advantage until they lost the senate. Long term, that short term political advantage lead to a Republican advantage as the GOP used the nuclear option to confirm Kavanaugh and Barrett to the SCOTUS. Without the nuclear option, the 60-vote cloture rule would have been in force, neither would have been confirmed. So, the democrats and ex-majority leader Senator Harry Reid’s precedence setting first use of the nuclear option led directly to Kavanaugh and Barrett’s confirmation giving the SCOTUS a conservative ideological bent.
Back to the filibuster, I noticed that states no longer divide their senators of having one a piece from each party as most did in the past. Red states are most likely to have two Republican senators, blue states, two democratic ones. This is especially true in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the mega, ultra-high partisanship. With the closeness of the house and a 50-50 split senate, completely doing away with the filibuster no doubt would benefit the Democrats as they hold the presidency and control the senate today. But what about the future?
In today’s political era, let’s look at the prospects of the senate. There are 23 states Trump won by 5 points or more vs. 19 won by Biden by 5 points or more. With the polarization trend continuing chances are those 23 states won by Trump will soon have 46 GOP senators vs the 38 senators from states Biden won by 5 points or more. This leaves just 8, shall we call battleground states which could send either one senator from each party, two from one party or two from the other. For my purposes here, let’s say these final 8 states split their senators, one each from each party. That brings the total to 54 Republicans, 46 Democrats. Of course things happen and change, one party or the other can make voters mad at them, I’m talking independents where one party or the other can pick up the majority of those senators from the battleground states. To gain control if our modern era of polarization, the great divide and mega, ultra-high partisanship continues, the Democrats would have to win both senate seats from 5 of those battleground states where the parties are fairly evenly split to reach 51. A real possibility, but one with the odds against it. It would be just as possible for the GOP to win 2 senators from 5 of the battleground states.
What the numbers tell me is for the Democrats doing away with the filibuster, they may do away with the minority party protection that they will want and need in the future. Short term thinking vs. long term thinking. Schumer has stated on numerous occasions that utilizing the nuclear option was one of his and the Democrats biggest mistakes. Which is understandable since it led directly to Kavanaugh and Barrett becoming members of the SCOTUS. It should also be noted that Reid has no regrets over his precedence setting first use.
I’m just playing with numbers here, but the above is what the numbers are telling me.