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Dems have the winning hand in immigration budget, but not sure how they use it.

btthegreat

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I think we are stuck with a narrow budget driven compromise to keep the govt going and fund border security, rather than some grand bargain on immigration. The political pressures are too high on the GOP from their base and the time frame is very limited. The corrosive impact of Trump makes any larger compromise virtually impossible so we wait two years.

There are sufficient Dems from purple states that have to recognize that this wall matters to many in their districts , so I see a minimal increase in the offer on 'physical barrier funding from 1.5 to 2 or 2.3 million and a decent sized increase in border security funding to show that nobody wants 'open borders'. More border agents, more high tech support etc. The question is what do we get for those increases? Does not make much sense to negotiate DACA protections while the courts are doing such a good job protecting them for us. We need to see where the courts end up.

We need to feed into the 'humanitarian' concerns that Trump laughingly ascribed to the GOP motive list. I see us demanding funding better housing conditions and health care for detainees which is deplorable, and maybe a fund for legal aid assistance for those claiming they are legal but who are caught up in the legal web of ICE. These immigration hearings are a giant black hole of Kafkaesque despair than anything like mercy or justice for anyone. I'd like the govt to help fund some of those pro bono efforts by immigration attorneys with a hundred clients and no time or resources.

Any other ideas?
 
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Mycroft

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I think we are stuck with a narrow budget driven compromise to keep the govt going and fund border security, rather than some grand bargain on immigration. The political pressures are too high on the GOP from their base and the time frame is very limited. There are sufficient Dems from purple states that have to recognize that this wall matters, so I see a minimal increase in the offer on 'physical barrier funding from 1.5 to 2 or 2.3 million and a decent increase in border security funding to show that nobody wants 'open borders'. The question is what do we get for it? Does not make much sense to negotiate DACA protections while the courts are doing such a good job protecting them for us.

I see us demanding funding better housing conditions and health care for detainees which is deplorable, and maybe a fund for legal aid assistance for those claiming they are legal but who are caught up in the legal web of ICE. These immigration hearings are a giant black hole of Kafkaesque despair than anything like mercy or justice for anyone. I'd like the govt to help fund some of those pro bono efforts by immigration attorneys with a hundred clients and no time or resources.

Actually, they don't have the winning hand. They've put themselves in a box and they have no way out.

1. If they make a deal and give Trump the money he wants, their base slaps them upside the head.

2. If they continue to refuse to make a deal, their base will love them...but the government either shuts down or Trump tells the public that he really tried, but there's nothing more to talk about and declares a national emergency. The Dems fail to stop Trump and their base will then slap them upside the head...and a lot of other people will lose any respect for the Dems that they once might have had.

You are right that this has nothing to do with some grand bargain on immigration. Trump tried something like that in the past and he tried a little bit of that this time with the Dreamer proposal. Nobody was interested. I don't see Trump being interested very much anymore, though he might consider stuff if they come across with ALL of the money he wants. But that's not going to happen because of that box the Dems put themselves in.
 

Amelia

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I think we are stuck with a narrow budget driven compromise to keep the govt going and fund border security, rather than some grand bargain on immigration. The political pressures are too high on the GOP from their base and the time frame is very limited. The corrosive impact of Trump makes any larger compromise virtually impossible so we wait two years.

There are sufficient Dems from purple states that have to recognize that this wall matters to many in their districts , so I see a minimal increase in the offer on 'physical barrier funding from 1.5 to 2 or 2.3 million and a decent sized increase in border security funding to show that nobody wants 'open borders'. More border agents, more high tech support etc. The question is what do we get for those increases? Does not make much sense to negotiate DACA protections while the courts are doing such a good job protecting them for us. We need to see where the courts end up.

We need to feed into the 'humanitarian' concerns that Trump laughingly ascribed to the GOP motive list. I see us demanding funding better housing conditions and health care for detainees which is deplorable, and maybe a fund for legal aid assistance for those claiming they are legal but who are caught up in the legal web of ICE. These immigration hearings are a giant black hole of Kafkaesque despair than anything like mercy or justice for anyone. I'd like the govt to help fund some of those pro bono efforts by immigration attorneys with a hundred clients and no time or resources.

Any other ideas?


They will get recommendations from experts. They will use those recommendations to flesh out a large bill which might even give some money for Trump's wall, but the more money involved in the bill, whether or not any of it is allowed to go for new wall, the more concessions they'll demand on DACA, asylum, etc.

Interesting that you think they'll be satisfied with the court limbo that DACA is in now. Maybe you're right. I hope they'll choose to do something proactive.
 

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I'll keep saying.

Democrats will offer $5.6 billion, but it will be for border security measures beyond those of a mere wall. The GOP will take what they can get, then put this mess behind them.
 

btthegreat

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They will get recommendations from experts. They will use those recommendations to flesh out a large bill which might even give some money for Trump's wall, but the more money involved in the bill, whether or not any of it is allowed to go for new wall, the more concessions they'll demand on DACA, asylum, etc.

Interesting that you think they'll be satisfied with the court limbo that DACA is in now. Maybe you're right. I hope they'll choose to do something proactive.

I think you see a broadly drafted immigration bill when I see a narrowly constructed budget bill. The rest will be kicked down the road until Trump leaves if possible. Nobody wants to the senate to have the tough votes with Trump inflaming the hardliner base, and the Dem base responding to trump like a starving wolf and a half eaten lamb. It simply won't produce the desired result of a compromise immigration bill. they cannot afford to take risks while he is in office, and we won't get squat done

The man will not shut up and let this process work.
 

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Actually, they don't have the winning hand. They've put themselves in a box and they have no way out.

1. If they make a deal and give Trump the money he wants, their base slaps them upside the head.

2. If they continue to refuse to make a deal, their base will love them...but the government either shuts down or Trump tells the public that he really tried, but there's nothing more to talk about and declares a national emergency. The Dems fail to stop Trump and their base will then slap them upside the head...and a lot of other people will lose any respect for the Dems that they once might have had.

You are right that this has nothing to do with some grand bargain on immigration. Trump tried something like that in the past and he tried a little bit of that this time with the Dreamer proposal. Nobody was interested. I don't see Trump being interested very much anymore, though he might consider stuff if they come across with ALL of the money he wants. But that's not going to happen because of that box the Dems put themselves in.

LOL! No, they hold all the cards. Trump folded like a bitch and if he declares a national emergency where there in none, the courts will toss his nonsense back in his face.

It's a win/win for Dems, and it always has been.

But, by all means, keep pretending it's anything other than that. Trump just exposed how impotent and laughably pathetic he truly is, even for the mouth-breathers that worship the ground he struts around on.
 

btthegreat

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I'll keep saying.

Democrats will offer $5.6 billion, but it will be for border security measures beyond those of a mere wall. The GOP will take what they can get, then put this mess behind them.

So you think there will be no directed funding for these physical barriers, Trump calls his wall, and Trump will sign it?
 

lwf

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Actually, they don't have the winning hand. They've put themselves in a box and they have no way out.

1. If they make a deal and give Trump the money he wants, their base slaps them upside the head.

Agreed.

2. If they continue to refuse to make a deal, their base will love them...but the government either shuts down or Trump tells the public that he really tried, but there's nothing more to talk about and declares a national emergency. The Dems fail to stop Trump and their base will then slap them upside the head...and a lot of other people will lose any respect for the Dems that they once might have had.

No way. Declaring a national emergency would backfire spectacularly in Trump's face. The GOP would run for the hills, the democrats would tie up any money Trump could have used for the wall in court until the courts rule against him, and Trump would be left vulnerable just as the Mueller investigation closes in on his kids. The democrats have played Trump like a fiddle on this one. There's no way out for him.
 

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So you think there will be no directed funding for these physical barriers, Trump calls his wall, and Trump will sign it?
Very little.

And, yes, he will.
 

lwf

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So you think there will be no directed funding for these physical barriers, Trump calls his wall, and Trump will sign it?

Absolutely. He's lost. Another shutdown would just be a deeper grave for him.
 

btthegreat

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Very little.

And, yes, he will.

See I think there are enough moderate Democrats who feel they need to use this budget to make a statement in favor of funding reasonable uses for physical barriers that will also separate them from any perceived Nancy Pelosi stance of total victory and humiliation of Trump. . The moderates need to hand trump sympathizers some underwear and be able to point to the vote that does so. Pelosi and Schumer will accommodate and simultaneously gain a couple of republican votes for a useful bipartisan veil. I am sure Rhinos like Collins will sure appreciate that, and that too is valuable in the long run.
 
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iguanaman

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Actually, they don't have the winning hand. They've put themselves in a box and they have no way out.

1. If they make a deal and give Trump the money he wants, their base slaps them upside the head.

2. If they continue to refuse to make a deal, their base will love them...but the government either shuts down or Trump tells the public that he really tried, but there's nothing more to talk about and declares a national emergency. The Dems fail to stop Trump and their base will then slap them upside the head...and a lot of other people will lose any respect for the Dems that they once might have had.

You are right that this has nothing to do with some grand bargain on immigration. Trump tried something like that in the past and he tried a little bit of that this time with the Dreamer proposal. Nobody was interested. I don't see Trump being interested very much anymore, though he might consider stuff if they come across with ALL of the money he wants. But that's not going to happen because of that box the Dems put themselves in.

No one but Trump and his minority of sycophants want the stupid wall. Trump will get his money but it won't be for his slush fund/wall. It will be for proven and expert recommended upgrades to the ports of entry and repair of existing barriers. Nobody was interested in a temporary dreamer reprieve when the courts are doing it already.
 

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Absolutely. He's lost. Another shutdown would just be a deeper grave for him.

Except I would never be confident guessing what he will do.

He's spent much of the past two years digging himself into lose-lose situations.
 

iguanaman

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See I think there are enough moderate Democrats who feel they need to use this budget to make a statement in favor of funding reasonable uses for physical barriers that will also separate them from any perceived Nancy Pelosi stance of total victory and humiliation of Trump. I think many feel they need to vote for some symbolic wall funding so there will likely have to be some accommodation. The moderates need to hand trump sympathizers some underwear and be able to point to the vote that does so. Pelosi and Schumer will accommodate and simultaneously gain a couple of republican votes for a useful bipartisan veil. I am sure Rhinos like Collins will sure appreciate that and that too is valuable in the long run.

Trump needs to admit that the whole wall thing as nothing but a scripted cue for him to talk about immigration. He liked the response it got at his rallies so he ran with it. It was never a legitimate proposal and the reality is that it makes no more sense than his claim that Mexico would pay for it.
 

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if he declares a national emergency where there in none,

~snipped the nonsense~

He has already proven there is a national emergency...multiple times.

Of course, you are in denial...you put truth to my sig.
 

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Agreed.



No way. Declaring a national emergency would backfire spectacularly in Trump's face. The GOP would run for the hills, the democrats would tie up any money Trump could have used for the wall in court until the courts rule against him, and Trump would be left vulnerable just as the Mueller investigation closes in on his kids. The democrats have played Trump like a fiddle on this one. There's no way out for him.

It's a national emergency. There will be limited ability to use the courts. Lots of laws won't apply during a national emergency. Heck, landowners will have limited recourse to oppose seizures.

The President...thanks to the laws that Congress has written...has a LOT of power.
 

btthegreat

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Trump needs to admit that the whole wall thing as nothing but a scripted cue for him to talk about immigration. He liked the response it got at his rallies so he ran with it. It was never a legitimate proposal and the reality is that it makes no more sense than his claim that Mexico would pay for it.

That ain't going to happen. If 60-70% of voters in red or purple states think they need this wall and are sympathetic to Donald Trumps promise, then Dems who run in those districts had better talk at least a little - about a role for 'physical barriers' in specific locations and they need to say they believed in funding those per Donald Trump, as well as border patrol, high tech surveillance etc. There are areas that will loath San Francisco 'Sanctuary Democrats' and Nancy Pelosi, and we want to win some seats there too.

These guys stood firm with Pelosi and Schumer for the tough times, they deserve to be given some slack when it doesn't matter as much and the caucus can afford some generousity .
 
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Mycroft

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No one but Trump and his minority of sycophants want the stupid wall. Trump will get his money but it won't be for his slush fund/wall. It will be for proven and expert recommended upgrades to the ports of entry and repair of existing barriers. Nobody was interested in a temporary dreamer reprieve when the courts are doing it already.

You haven't been listening, have you?

The wall will be built.
 

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Trump needs to admit that the whole wall thing as nothing but a scripted cue for him to talk about immigration. He liked the response it got at his rallies so he ran with it. It was never a legitimate proposal and the reality is that it makes no more sense than his claim that Mexico would pay for it.

Oh...don't worry. Trump will get to immigration...when he's ready. One thing at a time, though.

But just think...after giving the Dems a chance to show the country they care more about opposing Trump than protecting the people, those same Dems will be very careful about showing the country what they really think about immigration.
 

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That ain't going to happen. If 60-70% of voters in red or purple states think they need this wall and are sympathetic to Donald Trumps promise, then Dems who run in those districts had better talk at least a little - about a role for 'physical barriers' in specific locations and they need to say they believed in funding those per Donald Trump, as well as border patrol, high tech surveillance etc. There are areas that will loath San Francisco 'Sanctuary Democrats' and Nancy Pelosi, and we want to win some seats there too.

These guys stood firm with Pelosi and Schumer for the tough times, they deserve to be given some slack when it doesn't matter as much and the caucus can afford some generousity .

I've seen no polls where support for Trump's wall is over 45%. Last year only 25% of Congressional Republicans supported the wall.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/20/trump-border-wall-survey-congress-republicans-billions/640196001/
 

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Oh...don't worry. Trump will get to immigration...when he's ready. One thing at a time, though.

But just think...after giving the Dems a chance to show the country they care more about opposing Trump than protecting the people, those same Dems will be very careful about showing the country what they really think about immigration.

There is no evidence that building a wall will protect anybody. Some think it will actually increase illegal immigration.

 

bongsaway

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Actually, they don't have the winning hand. They've put themselves in a box and they have no way out.

1. If they make a deal and give Trump the money he wants, their base slaps them upside the head.

2. If they continue to refuse to make a deal, their base will love them...but the government either shuts down or Trump tells the public that he really tried, but there's nothing more to talk about and declares a national emergency. The Dems fail to stop Trump and their base will then slap them upside the head...and a lot of other people will lose any respect for the Dems that they once might have had.

You are right that this has nothing to do with some grand bargain on immigration. Trump tried something like that in the past and he tried a little bit of that this time with the Dreamer proposal. Nobody was interested. I don't see Trump being interested very much anymore, though he might consider stuff if they come across with ALL of the money he wants. But that's not going to happen because of that box the Dems put themselves in.

Do you really think in three weeks trump is going to shut down the government again if he doesn't get his 5.7? The senate republicans will revolt led by mitch.
 

Tanngrisnir

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He has already proven there is a national emergency...multiple times.

Of course, you are in denial...you put truth to my sig.

No, he hasn't, nor can you demonstrate otherwise. To maintain that he has is to lie. And why try and reference logic when you're completely unacquainted with it?

Your dishonesty never disappoints.
 

btthegreat

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I've seen no polls where support for Trump's wall is over 45%. Last year only 25% of Congressional Republicans supported the wall.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/20/trump-border-wall-survey-congress-republicans-billions/640196001/

1. You might check for polls a little newer than Sept 20 of 2017 2. You might try measuring the right demographic group which is NOT the politiicans, but the voters. 3. Maybe an average of national results is a poor indicator of views in specific regional competitive districts where this issue matters. Its what on the minds of voters in Arkansas and Texas in 2019 that will matter to Congressmen who intend on running for re-election in 2020 in Texas and Arkansas.
 
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iguanaman

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1. You might check for polls a little newer than Sept of 2017 2. You might try measuring the right demographic group which is NOT the politiicans, but the voters. 3. Maybe an average of national results is a poor indicator of views in specific regional competitive districts where this issue matters. Its what on the minds of voters in Arkansas and Texas in 2019 that will matter to Congressmen running for re-election in 2020 in Texas and Arkansas.

They will be running AGAINST Trump so no. Democrats that cave to Trump will lose.
 
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