Looking back, the 2016 election was the Democrats to lose. Lose it they did. Ignored by Democrats was a poll in February of 2016 that showed 56% of all Americans wanted the Democrats to nominate someone other than Clinton. That included 60% of independents. This poll showed Hillary would have a lot of problems with independent voters. Then in July of 2016, Gallup, another showed Hillary with a favorable rating of 60% among Democrats, but only 30% among independents. Trump had a 61% favorable among Republicans and 33% favorable among independents in the same poll. Amazingly, 54% of all independents disliked both candidates.
Then to top off this poor showing was another factor, from 1 Sep 2016 through 8 Nov 2016 Hillary let Trump both out work and out campaign by the huge margin of 116 campaign visits/stops, appearances/rallies to Hillary’s 71. That in my opinion was pure laziness on Hillary’s part. On election day, independents gave Trump a 40% favorable, 57% unfavorable to Hillary’s 27% favorable, 70% unfavorable. Both candidates still very much disliked which showed up in Trump winning the independent vote 46-42 with 12% voting third party. Independents put Trump into the white house because they disliked Hillary more than they did Trump.
Will this happen again in 2020? The Democrats nominating someone as disliked as Trump? Someone who can’t win the independent vote like Hillary couldn’t? I must admit, it seems the Democrats are off to a good start.
There were two candidates I couldn’t vote for in 2016 among all of those who ran for the nomination and the presidency. Trump and Hillary Clinton. I voted third party against both Trump and Hillary as did 9 million other Americans. In 2020, I already know I will never vote for Trump. What I don’t know is if I will vote for the democratic candidate or vote third party once again. I think those 9 million Americans who voted third party, against both Hillary and Trump in 2016, are in the same boat as I.
2020 is an election that should be won easily by the democrats as much as Trump is disliked. Like 2016, 2020 is an election for the Democrats to lose, Trump can’t win it, but the democrats sure could lose it with the wrong candidate, ala 2016. Probably the only question left is if the Democrats will once again ignore America as a whole and in particular independent voters when they nominate their candidate for 2020? It is beginning to look like they will do exactly that. If so, a repeat of 2016 is a real possibility.