Bloomberg
1/4/19
Time for a shutdown update, after a day with a fair amount of action but no visible progress toward an agreement. The basics: On the first day of the 116th Congress, House Democrats passed bills to reopen the government while the debate over President Donald Trump’s border wall continues. Senate Republicans said they wouldn’t take up anything unless Trump promised to sign it, including bills that had already passed easily before the shutdown. And Trump himself? As usual, he was all over the place. But Democrats brought up their two bills knowing that they were going nowhere. On the other hand, it’s worth pointing out once again that this really is Trump’s shutdown. They negotiated a pretty good deal despite a unified Republican government, and probably couldn’t improve on it much by holding out now. But that’s sort of the point: They’re willing to accept the results of fair negotiations, while Trump is shutting down the government because he didn’t get what he wanted, even though he certainly doesn’t appear to have much bargaining power. In fact, while Democrats were unified on the two key votes on Thursday, Republicans showed signs of division.
Five of them voted with the Democrats on one bill and seven on the other. At least one Republican senator, Cory Gardner, said he would support a clean bill to reopen the government. If Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell did allow a vote, the Democrats’ bills would probably pass (although neither chamber appears to have the votes to override a presidential veto). In any event, it seems likely that the pressure will increase soon. Furloughed government workers, others who are being forced to work without pay, and idle contractors will all start being hit harder. Although federal agencies can usually handle a few days of lapsed funding, the longer it goes on, the less that’s true. So far, Trump appears to have lost a little ground in his ratings, dropping about one percentage point in approval and two in disapproval. Given that the border wall isn’t popular; that most people blame Trump for the shutdown (which is no surprise, since he’s bragged about it); and that Trump himself isn’t popular, it’s likely that over time he’ll continue to bleed support. For that matter, it’s likely that everyone’s ratings will slide as the shutdown drags on. Perhaps Trump won’t believe the polls. But other Republicans will, and after the midterms they can no longer dismiss how toxic Trump can be for their party. It’s still difficult to predict how all this ends. But it’s hard to see it ending well for Republicans.
