Democrat Convention Causes Bounce in the Polls!

[code1211]

Before the Democrat-Socialist "Convention", the President was at a 48% approval.

After two days of the venomous, negative, hate driven, lie fest, featuring the leading personalities of the Democrat-Socialist Party, the President is up to 51% approval.

If this continues, the only people who are going to vote for Biden will be the hopelessly brain dead and the media's propaganda elites.

In a Venn Diagram revealing commonalities, there is probably a large overlap between the hopelessly brain dead and the media's propaganda elites.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports(R)

 

[Threegoofs]

Before the Democrat-Socialist "Convention", the President was at a 48% approval.

After two days of the venomous, negative, hate driven, lie fest, featuring the leading personalities of the Democrat-Socialist Party, the President is up to 51% approval.

If this continues, the only people who are going to vote for Biden will be the hopelessly brain dead and the media's propaganda elites.

In a Venn Diagram revealing commonalities, there is probably a large overlap between the hopelessly brain dead and the media's propaganda elites.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports(R)

He’s up to NEGATIVE three percent in the most slanted GOP leaning poll out there!

Only 40% of the country ‘strongly disapproves’!

Stellar numbers, for sure.

This thread though. Definitely says something about the hopelessly brain dead though.

 

[chuckiechan]

He’s up to NEGATIVE three percent in the most slanted GOP leaning poll out there!

Only 40% of the country ‘strongly disapproves’!

Stellar numbers, for sure.

This thread though. Definitely says something about the hopelessly brain dead though.

A bit early. After the RNC has their party, the campaign is officially on.

Funny sidebar. Biden’s low bar was so low it amounted to “Wow. He got through the speech without fouling it up!” Why that is important is now Joe can’t hide in the basement anymore.

 

[haymarket]

Rasmussen.

enough said.

 

[Threegoofs]

A bit early. After the RNC has their party, the campaign is officially on.

Funny sidebar. Biden’s low bar was so low it amounted to “Wow. He got through the speech without fouling it up!” Why that is important is now Joe can’t hide in the basement anymore.

His speech was excellent and pretty powerful.

Even the Fox News talking heads thought so, with Chris Wallace astutely saying that :

"It was an enormously effective speech. Remember, Donald Trump has been talking for months about Joe Biden as mentally shot, a captive of the left, and yes Biden was reading from a teleprompter and a prepared speech, but I thought he blew a hole -- a big hole -- in that characterization."

Voices from Fox News to MSNBC praise Joe Biden's acceptance speech - CNN

 

[chuckiechan]

His speech was excellent and pretty powerful.

Even the Fox News talking heads thought so, with Chris Wallace astutely saying that :

"It was an enormously effective speech. Remember, Donald Trump has been talking for months about Joe Biden as mentally shot, a captive of the left, and yes Biden was reading from a teleprompter and a prepared speech, but I thought he blew a hole -- a big hole -- in that characterization."

Voices from Fox News to MSNBC praise Joe Biden's acceptance speech - CNN

In politics you always build up your enemy before you attack him.

 

[Threegoofs]

In politics you always build up your enemy before you attack him.

So you’re saying a Fox views Biden as the enemy?

Guess you just admitted they’re not objective sources.

Either way, these ‘enemies’ sure thought Biden gave a great speech.

Meanwhile, the babbler said:


https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1296543743764566017?s=21

 

[LouC]

As the election of 2016 should have taught us all, there is only one poll that counts, that is the poll of the people taken on election day.

I said Trump would win then, in 2016, and he did, despite the overwhelming loss in the popular vote.

I still think Trump (please GOD, no) will win, this time, by some act of Lucifer, but again, he was for most folks thought to be the "no way in hell" candidate, last time. Then he and Lucifer proved there was a "way in hell", and here we are, in Trump's hell.

:2wave:

 

[OlNate]

So you’re saying a Fox views Biden as the enemy?

Guess you just admitted they’re not objective sources.

Either way, these ‘enemies’ sure thought Biden gave a great speech.

Meanwhile, the babbler said:


https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1296543743764566017?s=21

Great catch. To be fair, the media has become entirely political, on both sides...but it's definitely worth pointing out.

 

[CaughtInThe]

I have a feeling that this thread won't age well.

 

[Cardinal]

Nate Silver needs to explain in no uncertain terms wtf is going on with Rasmussen. The way they keep increasing their outlier results reminds me of the carrier from Casino. The carrier starts out delivering giant bags of cash to the mob chiefs, and by the end of the movie so much money has been skimmed that he hands over a single wad of cash with a sheepdog expression.

Point is, it's hard to read their results as anything other than the expressed purpose of keeping RCP's and 538's Trump approval average as high as possible.

Without Rasmussen, his approval average over the last three days is 40.3. With Rasmussen it goes up to 41.8.

 

[Lucky 1]

I have a feeling that this thread won't age well.

It'll probably age about is well as Biden's bounce in the polls.......poorly.

 

[lwf]

In politics you always build up your enemy before you attack him.

That doesn't make any sense. Why would you do this?

 

[CaughtInThe]

It'll probably age about is well as Biden's bounce in the polls.......poorly.

to be honest, it all comes down to Florida. if Trump loses Florida, it's over.

if he wins Florida then it comes down to some swing states. those states that are currently suffering big time.

 

[Cardinal]

That doesn't make any sense. Why would you do this?

From what I just wrote on the same topic in another thread:

There are basically two tactics Republicans can use here:

1)Raise the bar of expectations so high that no matter how well Biden performs he always seems to disappoint. In the runup to the Kerry/Bush debates, the Bush campaign referred to Kerry as "the best debater since Cicero" (I'm not making this up). Spoiler alert: Kerry didn't perform as well as Cicero.

2)Prime the media to focus on any gaffes or pauses on Biden's part as confirmation of his mental deterioration.

The problem is that you can manage the narrative for #1 better than you can for #2. But they went for the second tactic and predictably it's blowing up in their faces. Will they learn? Hard to say. On one hand Trump's people aren't good at learning. On another, they've already put so much currency into painting Biden as senile that it's going to be mighty odd when people hear them do a 180 and describe Biden as "the best debater since Cicero."

I'm putting my money on them not learning.

 

[joko104]

His speech was excellent and pretty powerful.

Even the Fox News talking heads thought so, with Chris Wallace astutely saying that :

"It was an enormously effective speech. Remember, Donald Trump has been talking for months about Joe Biden as mentally shot, a captive of the left, and yes Biden was reading from a teleprompter and a prepared speech, but I thought he blew a hole -- a big hole -- in that characterization."

Voices from Fox News to MSNBC praise Joe Biden's acceptance speech - CNN

The speech he read of the teleprompter was simplistic, shallow and condescending. It is clear they wanted to make it as easy for him as possible.

 

[lwf]

From what I just wrote on the same topic in another thread:

There are basically two tactics Republicans can use here:

1)Raise the bar of expectations so high that no matter how well Biden performs he always seems to disappoint. In the runup to the Kerry/Bush debates, the Bush campaign referred to Kerry as "the best debater since Cicero" (I'm not making this up). Spoiler alert: Kerry didn't perform as well as Cicero.

2)Prime the media to focus on any gaffes or pauses on Biden's part as confirmation of his mental deterioration.

The problem is that you can manage the narrative for #1 better than you can for #2. But they went for the second tactic and predictably it's blowing up in their faces. Will they learn? Hard to say. On one hand Trump's people aren't good at learning. On another, they've already put so much currency into painting Biden as senile that it's going to be mighty odd when people hear them do a 180 and describe Biden as "the best debater since Cicero."

I'm putting my money on them not learning.

I guess that makes sense. It does seem like it's a little late to pivot back to #1. Plus, we have an incumbent who seems to be wired to be incapable of #1. I'd imagine he would torpedo this strategy with a tweet in less than 24 hours.

 

[lwf]

The speech he read of the teleprompter was simplistic, shallow and condescending. It is clear they wanted to make it as easy for him as possible.

At least he didn't say he was at 7/11 down at the World Trade Center with the police and firemen.

 

[Cardinal]

I guess that makes sense. It does seem like it's a little late to pivot back to #1. Plus, we have an incumbent who seems to be wired to be incapable of #1. I'd imagine he would torpedo this strategy with a tweet in less than 24 hours.

You will see some Republicans learn, but yeah, as you said it's too late to pivot back to the first option. Even cultism is going to have a hard time steering that aircraft carrier to go in the opposite direction.

Or maybe cultism won't have any problem with that pivot. Hard to say. It's cultism.

 

[Threegoofs]

The speech he read of the teleprompter was simplistic, shallow and condescending. It is clear they wanted to make it as easy for him as possible.

It was none of those things.

And reading credibly off a teleprompter is something that Trump does terribly, a low bar for sure, but he can’t even reach it.

I could post clips, but we all know it and you’d just deny it because...well...,you know.

 

[Threegoofs]

From what I just wrote on the same topic in another thread:

There are basically two tactics Republicans can use here:

1)Raise the bar of expectations so high that no matter how well Biden performs he always seems to disappoint. In the runup to the Kerry/Bush debates, the Bush campaign referred to Kerry as "the best debater since Cicero" (I'm not making this up). Spoiler alert: Kerry didn't perform as well as Cicero.

2)Prime the media to focus on any gaffes or pauses on Biden's part as confirmation of his mental deterioration.

The problem is that you can manage the narrative for #1 better than you can for #2. But they went for the second tactic and predictably it's blowing up in their faces. Will they learn? Hard to say. On one hand Trump's people aren't good at learning. On another, they've already put so much currency into painting Biden as senile that it's going to be mighty odd when people hear them do a 180 and describe Biden as "the best debater since Cicero."

I'm putting my money on them not learning.

Don’t bet on people who allow themselves to be blatantly ripped off and then defend the guy who was ripping them off.

Bannon, obviously, but it also applies to Trump. We just haven’t seen the arraignment yet. Jan or Feb is likely.

 

[joko104]

From what I just wrote on the same topic in another thread:

There are basically two tactics Republicans can use here:

1)Raise the bar of expectations so high that no matter how well Biden performs he always seems to disappoint. In the runup to the Kerry/Bush debates, the Bush campaign referred to Kerry as "the best debater since Cicero" (I'm not making this up). Spoiler alert: Kerry didn't perform as well as Cicero.

2)Prime the media to focus on any gaffes or pauses on Biden's part as confirmation of his mental deterioration.

The problem is that you can manage the narrative for #1 better than you can for #2. But they went for the second tactic and predictably it's blowing up in their faces. Will they learn? Hard to say. On one hand Trump's people aren't good at learning. On another, they've already put so much currency into painting Biden as senile that it's going to be mighty odd when people hear them do a 180 and describe Biden as "the best debater since Cicero."

I'm putting my money on them not learning.

What is blowing up on the Democrats is having a candidate in hiding, that refuses to EVER do ANY press conferences and can't talk for 3 minutes without a teleprompter without gaffes, exposing his lifelong racism, and unable to remember what he was trying to say before the end of the sentence over and over.

"Never mind who our candidate is, just vote against Trump" and "settle for Biden" may not work as well as the Democratic Party hopes.

If Biden does not get a measurable bump up in polling after 4 days of pre-recorded political ads they falsely called "a convention" - it will be a first in political history for a political convention. The party holding the convention usually gets a 2 to 4 point bump up in polling.

I do not expect Biden to ever agree to a live debate with Trump. He will only to do it remotely - so out of camera view political consultants can instantly punch in the file for his pre-written responses he can read off a teleprompter.

 

[Perotista]

Before the Democrat-Socialist "Convention", the President was at a 48% approval.

After two days of the venomous, negative, hate driven, lie fest, featuring the leading personalities of the Democrat-Socialist Party, the President is up to 51% approval.

If this continues, the only people who are going to vote for Biden will be the hopelessly brain dead and the media's propaganda elites.

In a Venn Diagram revealing commonalities, there is probably a large overlap between the hopelessly brain dead and the media's propaganda elites.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports(R)

I don't think there will be a convention bounce this year. As for Biden according to RCP averages he was at 50.2% head to head vs. Trump on 16 Aug, today he's at 49.7%.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

Trump was at 43.3% approval on 16 Aug, today he's at 43.7%. The needle really hasn't moved.

President Trump Job Approval | Election Other | RealClearPolitics

But we need to give this a week to have a more accurate picture. Come 24 Aug we should see if there was a bounce or not. I don't expect any outside the normal fluctuations.

The virus and the virtual conventions pretty much eliminate any significant bounce. Even in normal years, the bounce usually last a week to two at the most then everything settles back to where it was prior to the conventions. Since everything has been well decided in advance, these conventions are useless. All they do is give each party a huge partisan propaganda platform which each party propagandizes much better than Joseph Gobbles ever thought of doing or could be accomplished.

 

[Cardinal]

You don't get poll responses for about a week after an event.

 

[d0gbreath]

In politics you always build up your enemy before you attack him.

trump has never done that.