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Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

Councilman

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funny-obama-12.jpg


It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood. The wake up call has gone out and and it is working.

Just now I heard on Radio that one in 4 Democrats believe we are headed in the wrong direction.

It is being reporter that the unemployment will not go down for the next 10 years, and is expected to reach 11% next year.

If Obama was half as brainy as claimed he would have seem how wrong he has been and changed. But he's too damned arrogant to admit defeat and the error of his thinking.

We are set to see a massive shift in in everything and it could not happen too fast.


GOP Threatens Once Safe Democratic Seats - WSJ.com

By NEIL KING JR. And PETER WALLSTEN

Republican challengers are suddenly threatening once-safe Democrats in New England and the Northwest, expanding the terrain for potential GOP gains and raising the party's hopes for a significant victory in next month's elections.

Republican advances in traditionally Democratic states, including Connecticut, Oregon and Washington, may not translate into a wave of GOP victories. But they have rattled local campaigns and forced the Democrats to shift attention and money to races they didn't expect to be defending.

Rising sentiment against the party in power has washed ashore even in coastal Oregon, where Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio won his 10th re-election two years ago with 82% of the vote.
 

The Prof

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Cook: 12 Dem incumbents are underdogs - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com

charlie cook, received as gospel by the insiders, who almost never alters his projections, the personification of caution, moved TWELVE troubled dems saturday from tossup to lean republican

his reasoning was thus:

“Longtime readers will observe that while we rarely rate unindicted incumbents worse than a Toss Up to win reelection, today we are moving 13 incumbents, 12 Democrats and one Republican, into the opposite party’s column to reflect their underdog status,” wrote Cook’s House Editor David Wasserman. “It’s not that these endangered members’ prospects have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, or even deteriorated gradually over the last several months. Most of these members have trailed all year, and it’s simply exceedingly rare to see a candidate in their position in October come back to win reelection, especially now that early voting will be underway in many states very soon.”

mr cook, who has been predicting for months a net red pickup of 40 to 50 seats, with a greater likelihood of a larger gain than a smaller, has suddenly become more BULLISH

what cook is seeing are unprecedented, historical, revolutionary trends discovered by poll after poll after poll---in the areas of voter enthusiasm (a 20-ish point spread), independents (also around 20%), undecideds (47 to 29 according to clintonista mark penn), a sapping of hispanic support (cut in half), a doubling of gop preference by working class whites (the old reagan democrats who comprise 40% of the electorate)...

so much in this election is firmly set and not to change---but INDEPENDENTS, UNDECIDEDS, ENTHUSIASM, these outcomes are the open parameters, and they will prove determinative

and, like i said, they appear revolutionary in range

mr cook now has NINETY dem seats in danger, with the roster steadily rising

The Cook Political Report | The insider's choice for election analysis

and i can tell you with confidence that at least a few incembent dems NOT on cook's stove WILL ALSO go, it's the nature of house races

that'd be someone like JOHN DINGELL, health care warrior from MI15 since 1955, BARNEY FRANK, DAVID OBERSTAR, PETER DEFAZIO, RAUL GRIJALVA (who encouraged the other 49 to BOYCOTT his arizona), JOHN SPRATT (budget chair), NICK RAHALL (resources), IKE SKELTON (armed services)...

the hill last week surveyed 12 dem freshmen from AZ, CO, IL, MD, MI, NV, NM, OH, PA and VA and found ELEVEN trailing their upstart opposition and the twelfth (mark schauer in MI) tied

District by district: 12 freshman Democrats in danger - TheHill.com

further, mark penn and the writers at the hill (where msnbc's chuck todd got his start) worry that none of the incumbents comes even close to 50%, indeed, all are under 40, and their net average is exactly 40% support in their own districts

knowing which way UNDECIDEDS are likely to go, and by what margin, knowing how ENTHUSED are the opp's and INDEPENDENTS, there is indeed very little chance that a sitting incumbent in this position (even if he or she were conducting any kind of VALID campaign, which she can't these days) has virtually zero chance of returning

next week the hill is going to examine the FIFTEEN open seats abandoned by dem vets for whatever reasons, many of them former GIANTS of the house---david obey, charlie melancon, brad ellsworth, bart gordon, joe sestak, marion berry, vic snyder, brain baird, paul hodes, mike delahunt...

but we already know what the results are gonna be, penn and the hill telegraphed it, cook agrees, so do sabato and rothenberg, as well as jay cost and sean trende, all nicely summed up daily on rcp

FOUR of the 15 opens are LIKELY RED---melancon, snyder, john tanner and eric massa

TEN are LEAN R---berry, stupak, sestak, hodes, gordon, baird, obey, ellsworth, alan mollohan (22 year vet from WV) and mrs moore in KS

ONE is TOSSUP---delahunt in cape cod, MA10

next in the series for the hill, after telling us what we already knew about the opens, will be a look at 2 termers in trouble

and then, finally, in the fourth week, the BULLS---frank, dingell, defazio, grijalva...

fascinating

i'll be sure to keep you informed

as for blue takeovers of red districts, there are FOUR in play, nationally

charles djou in HI1 who only won his special a few months ago cuz bull senator daniel inouye revolted against his state party

but djou took obama's childhood home with 39%, which is a pretty good start, and folks in pineapple land think he's done a good job

a DAILY KOS poll (the only people who picked martha coakley in chappaquiddick teddy's seat) last week showed honolulu council woman colleen hanabusa leading mr djou by only a point

the governorship of the islands, democrat for 42 years, is also bizarrely close---something definitely is going on in the middle of the pacific

anyway, djou, who started as a sure blue pickup has suddenly been moved to tossup

another sure to go blue was sposed to be joseph cao, the vietnamese seminarian from new orleans who was the only republican in pelosi's place to vote for obamacare

he was also always a safe pickup, but then suddenly last week he too was leapfrogged to tossup, tho cook moved him back to lean dem (not likely dem) saturday

the other two red seats in play are mike castle's at large in delaware, LEAN dem

and mark kirk's IL10, gop for 100 years, but very uniquely so, a tossup

kirk is running against alex giannoulias for IL senate, burris/obama's seat, (giannoulias testified yesterday on mtp that he was not aware of the "extant" of the criminal behavior engaged in by so many of the people to whom his bankrupt bank lent tens of millions, all lost)

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43377.html

kirk might be the most liberal republican i have ever encountered, i actually saw him once equivocate on partial birth abortion

anyway, IL10, kirk's seat is open, and it's tossup

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

take care
 
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The Prof

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correction: hawaii is governed by a republican, linda lingle

before she took office in 02 the state was 42 years democrat

sorry
 

hazlnut

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Councilman thinks this a pirate movie.
 

Grimjack19

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Democrats are being challeneged in a midterm that isn't hospitable to them.

Thanks for the news bro.
 

obvious Child

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correction: hawaii is governed by a republican, linda lingle

before she took office in 02 the state was 42 years democrat

sorry

Linda Lingle is also arguebly the most liberal Republican in US history next to Chaffe. What's your point?
 
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Councilman

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To crib from "Red Dragon," Republicans have at least one disadvantage this election season: They're insane.
 

Troubadour

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They're talking about tax cuts to people who don't have jobs, raving about deficit spending to people whose main concern is that they lack access to support services, and railing against highly popular government programs to people who've become increasingly aware of their importance in the bad economy. I make no specific predictions, but their election strategy is better suited to make marginal gains against a weakened opponent than to sweep anything.
 

j-mac

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They're talking about tax cuts to people who don't have jobs...

Wait a minute here...Just so that we are clear in what we are saying, I asked you why you view republicans as "insane" and you say that we are talking about tax cuts to people whom don't have jobs? I think you have that backwards.

raving about deficit spending to people whose main concern is that they lack access to support services

Whom is lacking access to anything in this country? Who are these people?

and railing against highly popular government programs to people who've become increasingly aware of their importance in the bad economy.

And what specific "popular government programs" are republicans railing against. If you are talking about say Medicare which has a 33 Trillion dollar unfunded liability then I would say yes, something has to be done, but that in no way is railing against the program, or wanting to take it away from those that have it now. That is wanting to address it and fix it.

I make no specific predictions, but their election strategy is better suited to make marginal gains against a weakened opponent than to sweep anything.

Then Sir I would pose that you are either just NOT paying attention to the news out there, or you are willingly ignoring the news. I give you Geo. Soros.

Mr. Soros, a champion of liberal causes, has been directing his money to groups that work on health care and the environment, rather than electoral politics. Asked if the prospect of Republican control of one or both houses of Congress concerned him, he said: “It does, because I think they are pushing the wrong policies, but I’m not in a position to stop it. I don’t believe in standing in the way of an avalanche.”

Soros: I Can't Stop a Republican "Avalanche" - NYTimes.com

Yet you are tilting at windmills here...How can that be?


j-mac
 

Troubadour

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Just so that we are clear in what we are saying, I asked you why you view republicans as "insane" and you say that we are talking about tax cuts to people whom don't have jobs?

Actually, you have a point: That's merely poor strategy. I should have said they're insane because they're adopting the xenophobic, paranoid rhetoric of the Tea Party.

Whom is lacking access to anything in this country?

Everyone who can't afford something and doesn't qualify for the handful of limited social programs remaining.

Who are these people?

Who are these people who live in the Horatio Alger America you seem to believe in? If you want examples of deprivation, I have a toothache and can't do anything about it because my dental coverage won't cover what needs to be done. The tooth is rotting in my mouth, and they can't do a simple extraction because it's fractured and would shatter. According to the dentist's quote, I would have to pay over $3,000 to get this dealt with - something I can't do even with a payment plan because of bad credit due to bankruptcy from medical bills. I am denied necessary care because my employer doesn't consider me valuable enough, and frankly most people have some degree of similar experience. If you have not, then you are in the privileged minority.

If you are talking about say Medicare which has a 33 Trillion dollar unfunded liability then I would say yes, something has to be done, but that in no way is railing against the program, or wanting to take it away from those that have it now. That is wanting to address it and fix it.

I have no knowledge of whether that figure is accurate or not. But as I recall, presidential candidate Al Gore had wanted to create a "lock box" for Medicare and Social Security that would have kept them funded for generations by ensuring that the budget surplus (remember that?) would be dedicated to those programs. George W. Bush preferred to cut taxes, creating the "unfunded liability" you refer to. The current Republican policy agenda is identical to Bush's.

Then Sir I would pose that you are either just NOT paying attention to the news out there

I pay attention to all news. That doesn't mean I consider it equally credible.

I give you Geo. Soros.

And if being a major fundraiser made one prescient, his opinion would mean more than mine.

Yet you are tilting at windmills here...How can that be?

It isn't.
 

Troubadour

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As I said, I make no specific predictions. I merely note that Republicans do themselves no favors.

the one that sees nbc and fox news as part of the same vast right wing conspiracy?

It's not a conspiracy, just convergent interests resulting in similar behavior.
 

TurtleDude

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To crib from "Red Dragon," Republicans have at least one disadvantage this election season: They're insane.

wow that is some inciteful bs for such a novice. I guess the thought of hard work, self sufficiency, and patriotism is insane to people who think working is for suckers. why work when you can live off the effort of others.
 

MKULTRABOY

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wow that is some inciteful bs for such a novice. I guess the thought of hard work, self sufficiency, and patriotism is insane to people who think working is for suckers. why work when you can live off the effort of others.

Just remember, if youre not republican youre not for hard work and you hate your country. Great reasons to be republican.
 

The Prof

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Everyone who can't afford something and doesn't qualify for the handful of limited social programs remaining.

wow

anyone who can't afford something is by definition denied access because there is some limitation of social programs that would provide it?

Who are these people who live in the Horatio Alger America you seem to believe in?

there're millions of us, we're all around you, can't you see us?

If you want examples of deprivation, I have a toothache and can't do anything about it because my dental coverage won't cover what needs to be done. The tooth is rotting in my mouth, and they can't do a simple extraction because it's fractured and would shatter.

you're deprived because you have a toothache?

i'm sorry about your tooth, sincerely, it sounds very painful, i hope you get some relief soon

According to the dentist's quote, I would have to pay over $3,000 to get this dealt with - something I can't do even with a payment plan because of bad credit due to bankruptcy from medical bills.

yes, indeed, dentisty can be very expensive

I am denied necessary care because my employer doesn't consider me valuable enough

go on

I have no knowledge of whether that figure is accurate or not.

for someone who is unaware of the unfunded liabilities facing not only medicare and medicaid but also social security as well (also public pensions, city, state and federal), you certainly seem to have some rather strong opinions about how the world works

But as I recall, presidential candidate Al Gore had wanted to create a "lock box" for Medicare and Social Security

the LOCK BOX!

LOL!

that's the solution folks, it's odd obama hasn't found it, all we need is the LOCK BOX!

I pay attention to all news.

then how could you possibly have missed last friday's jobs report, it was even on olberman?

please continue
 

Troubadour

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I guess the thought of hard work, self sufficiency, and patriotism is insane to people who think working is for suckers.

Those are just words to Republicans.

why work when you can live off the effort of others.

Capitalism in a nutshell.

anyone who can't afford something is by definition denied access because there is some limitation of social programs that would provide it?

When the subject is health care, yes.

there're millions of us, we're all around you, can't you see us?

Kind of hard to see over the walls of the gated communities.

you're deprived because you have a toothache?

I'm deprived of the solution to the toothache, as is everyone else who can't afford needed procedures.

i hope you get some relief soon

Just not enough to pay slightly higher taxes, I presume. Thank you for your "sentiments," whatever they're worth.

yes, indeed, dentisty can be very expensive

The lack of dentistry is even more expensive.


What more is there to say? A system that decides the level of care by how much your employer thinks you're worth is an affront to human decency.

for someone who is unaware of the unfunded liabilities facing not only medicare and medicaid but also social security as well (also public pensions, city, state and federal), you certainly seem to have some rather strong opinions about how the world works

We haven't addressed any of those other than Medicare, and all I said was that I wasn't aware of the accuracy of the specific figure - hardly tantamount to ignorance of the issue.

that's the solution folks, it's odd obama hasn't found it, all we need is the LOCK BOX!

It's not odd at all - Obama didn't inherit a budget surplus, George W. Bush did. The concept of a lock box was to ensure that such surpluses would be held exclusively for Medicare and Social Security, and neither spent on other priorities nor frittered away with tax cuts. As I recall, Bush's first round of tax cuts were roughly the size of the current federal budget deficit.

then how could you possibly have missed last friday's jobs report, it was even on olberman?

I didn't say I was unaware of it, I just said I hadn't seen it - i.e., I haven't read the document. When I need to know something, I rely on primary sources. General news coverage is just background.

olberman and beck share similar interests?

No, the organizations that employ them do.
 

The Prof

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Those are just words to Republicans.

hard work, self sufficiency and patriotism are just words?

no wonder your employer doesn't consider you valuable

Capitalism in a nutshell.

and the alternative?

Kind of hard to see over the walls of the gated communities.

but we don't live behind gates, we go to safeway, and junior college

you STILL haven't seen us

I'm deprived of the solution to the toothache, as is everyone else who can't afford needed procedures.

make something of yourself, make yourself valuable, quit blaming your tootache on me and horatio alger

Just not enough to pay slightly higher taxes, I presume.

the expiration of the bush cuts results not in "slightly higher taxes"

pay for your own toothache

What more is there to say? A system that decides the level of care by how much your employer thinks you're worth is an affront to human decency.

try finding what you're looking for in nature

We haven't addressed any of those other than Medicare, and all I said was that I wasn't aware of the accuracy of the specific figure - hardly tantamount to ignorance of the issue.

no, the size of the unfunded liabilities faced by our entitlement programs and public pension funds is common knowledge, as reported regularly for decades by all those right wing reporters at cbs, nbc, the ny times, washington post...

The concept of a lock box was to ensure that such surpluses would be held exclusively for Medicare and Social Security

the concept of the lock box is as old as social security itself, it was broken into and raided

As I recall, Bush's first round of tax cuts were roughly the size of the current federal budget deficit.

38 house dems are on record---extend bush cuts to all americans

47 signed on to extending the lower rates on all that evil, unearned investment income

Liberal Democrats call for tax vote - Jonathan Allen - POLITICO.com

Dem letter: Keep tax cuts for rich - John Maggs - POLITICO.com

it's clearly because they share keith olberman's conservative outlook

LOL!

I didn't say I was unaware of it, I just said I hadn't seen it - i.e., I haven't read the document.

then read it, catch up

News from The Associated Press

No, the organizations that employ them do.

so it's the contents of the olberman and beck shows that manifest those convergent interests?

please continue
 
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