Defining Down Economic Failure

imagep said:

Joe was looking for a job six months ago, then he decided to stop looking for a job and start training to be a superstar singer. So Joe WAS looking for a job during the past year, although he has decided that he would prefer to do something else right now.



I could see that.

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The BLS periodically breaks the category of marginally attached down into subsets if you look for it on their site as to when they last looked for work, etc.

imagep said:

I agree that in some instances, this is sure to be the case. But neither one of us have any reason to believe that most of the people classified as "discouraged workers" are discouraged as you describe. When they do the polls, they don't actually ask people why they are no longer looking for work.

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Of course they do. If the respondent had already said s/he wanted a job and could have started work the previous week, had looked in the last 12 months but not last 4 weeks, then s/he is classifed as Marginally Attached. If s/he responds with answers 1,2,3,4, or 5 below, s/he will be classified as Discouraged. 6 through 11 will be "marginally attached, reasons other than discouragement.
What is the main reason (you/he/she) (was/were) not looking for work during the LAST 4 WEEKS?
DWRRSN
1 Believes no work available in line of work or area
2 Couldn't find any work
3 Lacks necessary schooling, training, skills or experience
4 Employers think too young or too old
5 Other types of discrimination
6 Can't arrange child care
7 Family responsibilities
8 In school or other training
9 Ill health, physical disability
10 Transportation problems
11 Other

http://www.census.gov/cps/files/questionnaire/Labor Force.pdf

They don't even ask people if they are "discouraged", they just automatically lump people into that category, based upon questions that have little to do with why they stopped working.

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Not why they stopped working (though that is asked in other parts of the survey), but for why they stopped looking.

Declan said:

A discouraged worker is someone who is not employed, is not looking for a job, but who has looked for work in the preceding 12 months.

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AND who did not look in the last four weeks because s/he believed there were no jobs available, that s/he lacked the right skills/education, or would face age/gender/racial/other discrimination.

imagep said:

that definition doesn't exclude the person who decided to become a homemaker, or to retire. It doesn't even indicate that they are actually discouraged. maybe they decided to write a book, or to take some time to train for a new career.

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Discouraged is specifically for labor market reasons for quitting....belief in lack of jobs, not right education/skills, or discrimination. And for all marginally attached they must want a job and have been able to start one.

imagep said:

Thanks for the info and the link. I wonder if there is a site that actually tells how may workers are considered "discouraged", as opposed to everyone else who is "marginally attached".

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It's in the News release: Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted And more detail at A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex

imagep said:

Joe was looking for a job six months ago, then he decided to stop looking for a job and start training to be a superstar singer. So Joe WAS looking for a job during the past year, although he has decided that he would prefer to do something else right now.

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Joe is certainly not discouraged because he stopped looking in order to pursue training. IF he stated he wanted a job and IF he said he could have started work the previous week, THEN he would be Marginally Attached. Otherwise he's just Not in the Labor Force.

pinqy said:

AND who did not look in the last four weeks because s/he believed there were no jobs available, that s/he lacked the right skills/education, or would face age/gender/racial/other discrimination.

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I give up, who?

Declan said:

I give up, who?

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He's the first baseman.

pinqy said:

He's the first baseman.

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If he works hard, he might get picked up by a farm league team and then he is no longer discouraged, unless it is because of his crappy stats.

pinqy said:

Discouraged is specifically for labor market reasons for quitting....belief in lack of jobs, not right education/skills, or discrimination. And for all marginally attached they must want a job and have been able to start one.

It's in the News release: Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted And more detail at A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex




Joe is certainly not discouraged because he stopped looking in order to pursue training. IF he stated he wanted a job and IF he said he could have started work the previous week, THEN he would be Marginally Attached. Otherwise he's just Not in the Labor Force.

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Thanks for that. I find it interesting that workers who are classified as "Discouraged over job prospects" actually declined faster than our overall U3 unemployment rate did. That kinda disproves a lot of the conservative narrative about discouraged workers. Also that those who are "Discouraged over job prospects" amount to less than 1% of our U6.

Basically, discouraged workers are fairly rare, and it's almost an insignificant factor, as some people are always going to be discouraged, in any economy in any country, and in any time period.