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Death rate of coronavirus under 1 percent?

Look- Shark...shark...shark....

VySky
 
The news is partially to blame for pumping out 3% deathrates and 7% deathrates from other countries without even taking into account that the first month will be artificial average death because the people in hospice (elderly and sick) are gonna inflate the first month. But the real average for THE WHOLE poppulace is actually WAYYY lower than that (less than 1%)
 
Erod said:
COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less Than 1%'

This is dangerous for elderly people and those with severe respiratory issues.

To everybody else, not so much.
Click to expand...

Is this because trump stepped on his dick when he said "he had a hunch" the death rate was lower and people in his administration had to make sure not to contradict him?

How about when Pence and trump contradicted each other regarding the availability of tests? Pence might be in trouble for telling the truth.

The truth is the trump administrations kryptonite.
 
In case anyone is curious, included is the actual *editorial* published...

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article

The editorial makes a few good points on the nature of what Covid-19 is demonstrating so far. However, it is an editorial based on what we know (that is changing) and also illustrates the concern plus what we have accomplished so far in slowing the spread, contrary to what President Orange Tan has been suggesting.
 
There is simply no way to know at this point. As we learn more, the WHO will revise their numbers hopefully downward.

Until then, any speculation is just speculation.
 
tacomancer said:
There is simply no way to know at this point. As we learn more, the WHO will revise their numbers hopefully downward.

Until then, any speculation is just speculation.
Click to expand...

The problem is that speculation is being presented by the MSM as fact.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
The problem is that speculation is being presented by the MSM as fact.
Click to expand...

That is a huge problem. I get it people are afraid and want to see comforting numbers, but ignoring risk is stupid
 
OrphanSlug said:
In case anyone is curious, included is the actual *editorial* published...

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article

The editorial makes a few good points on the nature of what Covid-19 is demonstrating so far. However, it is an editorial based on what we know (that is changing) and also illustrates the concern plus what we have accomplished so far in slowing the spread, contrary to what President Orange Tan has been suggesting.
Click to expand...

Slowing the spread doesn't really impact the mortality rate.
 
I'll take any of the odds discussed above.

((((YAWN)))))

VySky
 
the odds are really good unless you're the one who dies.
 
dixon01767 said:
Slowing the spread doesn't really impact the mortality rate.
Click to expand...

Depends on where, since we know who is most vulnerable then reported cases against deaths to calculate mortality rate can change (and has changed) over time.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
The problem is that speculation is being presented by the MSM as fact.
Click to expand...

Somewhere in there is a really ugly number:

The percentage of the at risk population that dies if exposed.
 
tacomancer said:
There is simply no way to know at this point. As we learn more, the WHO will revise their numbers hopefully downward.
Until then, any speculation is just speculation.
Click to expand...


I see you took your study link down. Might as well as it was garbage ... (grin) ...

South Korea is showing us already that the death rate is way below 1%.

March 5, 2020 - "The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

This quick response has allowed South Korea to detect more than 6,000 coronavirus patients, around 35 of whom have died. That means the country's death rate is around 0.6%. ..."

South Korea has widespread coronavirus testing, sees low death rate - Business Insider


I suspect that the death rate in developed nations will be even lower while countries like Iran and China will have one of the highest death rates.
 
dixon01767 said:
"The mortality rate associated with COVID-19 may be "considerably less than 1%," instead of the 2% reported by some groups,....."

Not to mention the 3.4% rate stated by the World Health Organization.
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The most important words in your statement is "may be"..... we just don't know yet. Moreover, we just don't know how much it will spread.

3.4% of 200,000,000 people (if 2/3 of America got it) would be nearly 7 million deaths.... and, if the death rate of 3.4% was overstated by 7X, (.5%), we would be talking a 1 million deaths. In contrast, if did not spread much, 3.4% of 100,000 people would be 3,400 deaths (still more than 9/11, but a much smaller deal).

The biggest issue is about containment. The early calculations of death rate just dictate the level of urgency we all must have to ensure containment. As of now, it appears to be very deadly, necessitating our urgency individually and as a society (government). It is a classic better safe than sorry. If this turns out to be not much, and we all hope it is, it could be because we got on it and addressed it. Up to this point, however, leadership in government has been terribly irresponsible in suggesting this not that big a deal. As a result, they have lost precious time in getting ahead of this.

Things often become not a big deal because you make them a big deal before you have a problem; and then you don't have a problem. Its all a matter of giving the issue due attention at the right time.
 
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Barnacle said:
I see you took your study link down. Might as well as it was garbage ... (grin) ...

South Korea is showing us already that the death rate is way below 1%.

March 5, 2020 - "The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

This quick response has allowed South Korea to detect more than 6,000 coronavirus patients, around 35 of whom have died. That means the country's death rate is around 0.6%. ..."

South Korea has widespread coronavirus testing, sees low death rate - Business Insider


I suspect that the death rate in developed nations will be even lower while countries like Iran and China will have one of the highest death rates.
Click to expand...

yeah the article wasn't quite up to snuff on a second review

South Korea is also testing thousands and is treating cases very early before complications can arise. Are we doing that here?
 
Erod said:
COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less Than 1%'

This is dangerous for elderly people and those with severe respiratory issues.

To everybody else, not so much.
Click to expand...
You know, no disrespect, but if I were hearing this from a source that was not the Trump health administration, I'd give it more credence.

Right now you can't even use the CDC numbers, which are woefully low. The (domestic) numbers from the Johns-Hopkins website were 4X as high as the CDC when I posted last night. Johns-Hopkins is the data from the the boots on the ground providers, while the CDC is data filtered by the Trump administration for your consumption. I'd be extremely wary of trusting anything from them.
 
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ttwtt78640 said:
The problem is that speculation is being presented by the MSM as fact.
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No, it's not speculation. The media is generally presenting hard numbers in relation to known cases and the resultant mortality rate as being reported by the various governments & health organizations.

What is speculation, is your & others' speculating that there are many unknown cases that will dilute the current known mortality rate. That may be a fair speculation, but it is just that - speculation.
 
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak:

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.
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I'll go with the above...
Swiss Medical Weekly - 2019-novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution
 
What if...? said:
Somewhere in there is a really ugly number:

The percentage of the at risk population that dies if exposed.
Click to expand...
Agreed. As can be seen by Washington State's King County, where the assisted living home was struck.

The latest data from Johns-Hopkins shows 83 stricken, 17 succumbed, and only 1 recovered. With only 1 recovery, this means even more of the currently afflicted may succumb. These numbers work out to just over a 20% fatality rate.

Data Source: (Johns-Hopkins) Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

 
Barnacle said:
I see you took your study link down. Might as well as it was garbage ... (grin) ...

South Korea is showing us already that the death rate is way below 1%.

March 5, 2020 - "The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

This quick response has allowed South Korea to detect more than 6,000 coronavirus patients, around 35 of whom have died. That means the country's death rate is around 0.6%. ..."

South Korea has widespread coronavirus testing, sees low death rate - Business Insider


I suspect that the death rate in developed nations will be even lower while countries like Iran and China will have one of the highest death rates.
Click to expand...
If the bolded is true, this would indeed be good news even though it would still be substantially more fatal than the common flu.

However there is a variable in there, and that would be the quality of the healthcare. We would have to assume our healthcare infrastructure in terms of combating the virus is as good as the Koreans, and I'm not sure we can assume that.
 
Erod said:
COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less Than 1%'

This is dangerous for elderly people and those with severe respiratory issues.

To everybody else, not so much.
Click to expand...

I think we'll find out that this is the case. As you pointed out, it's only hitting older people with health issues. The flu itself actually sometimes reaches outside of that demographic. What we'll discover is that those putting out current numbers were working with wholly inaccurate numbers as there is no way to assess how many are actually infected.
 
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