A sticky situation indeed. Is this finally going to be the political crisis that breaks up Belgium or do you think the country will last a while longer?
quite a strong stand for a member of the royal court... count Henry d'Udekem d'Acoz, the uncle of our future queen ... has joined the separatist and anti-monarchist Flemish nationalist party ...
quite a strong stand for a member of the royal court
unfortunately, the other aspects of the post i was unable to appreciate, not having an understanding of belgian politics
what do you anticipate as the best case scenario ... compared to what you expect the ultimate resolution to be?
De Franstaligen zullen dus nog immer electorale belangen in Vlaams-Brabant hebben, en dus ook territoriale ambities. In wezen verandert er niks. Eigenlijk krijgen de Franskiljons hun zin, hun positie is niet verslechterd, en de Vlamingen blijven met lege handen achter, hoewel ze in deze materie de grondwet aan hun kant hebben.
PLAN B KOMT IN BEELD. Volgens Di Rupo vraagt het staatszin om de onderhandelingen voort te zetten. Weldra vraagt het staatszin om ermee te stoppen. Men mag het land niet meeslepen in een nieuw 3 jarig Leterme traject. Dan komt Plan B haarscherp in beeld. De Belgicistisch zijn er ten stelligste van overtuigd dat er voor een zelfstandig Vlaanderen geen meerderheid bestaat aan Vlaamse kant. Als men de Vlamingen laat kiezen tussen een efficiënt modern België en een zelfstandig Vlaanderen hebben ze quasi zeker gelijk. Maar als men ze dwingt te kiezen tussen la Begique de papa met zijn obsessionele territoriumvreters, zijn Franstalige graaicultuur, zijn hautaine Franstalige übermensch mentaliteit en een efficiënt zakelijk zelfstandig Vlaanderen, bevrijd van alle toeters en alarmbellen, dan slaat de balans quasi zeker over in de andere richting. Als men daaraan twijfelt, dat men dan een volksraadpleging organiseert
Vivement que ces négociations foirent définitivement, que la Wallonie et Bruxelles soient ratachées a la France, car je préfererai de loin vivre dans la France de Sarkozy plutôt que sous la coupe de la maffia p$.
Dirupo ne sera alors plus qu'un petit député de la sous-préfecture du borinage, dans l'opposition et hors d'état de nuire!
EDR veut tellement être Premier Ministree qu'il a cédé sur tout. Et maintenant il n'a plus rien pour négocier.
Il est urgent de reconstituer le front francophones pour préparer le divorce final dans les meilleures conditions.
Sounds incredibly complicated bub, for such a small country the feelings and stakes seem to large?
Are feelings running at the point that people seriously contemplate civil war?
Not a civil war, but people are talking about a possible separation every day, like 3 years ago (the difference is that top-politicians from both sides are also openly talking about it, I think it is new).
I don't think it could turn violent, we do not have militias or paramilitary groups, and in the only disputed areas (some towns along the linguistic border around Brussels and near the German border) demonstrations have never really been violent.
As the leader of the Flemish nationalists (who could be our next and last prime minister...) says, he's not seeking for a revolution. If Flanders becomes independent, it will not be overnight, it will be a slow process in which Belgium "evaporates"
--What would become of the King?
--snip--
Let me be clear, I don't want Him!
Although I understand the Flemish claims for independence, I am worried about a particular issue.
What would become of the King?
Or, if Albert II is to remain in charge, Flanders to unite with NL and Wallonia with FRA, where will he reign?
Let me be clear, I don't want Him!
-- Flanders is likely to remain independent, I don't think they would join the Netherlands
-- Wallonia could form a confederacy with Brussels or join France (but in this case I'm moving to Italy)
-- Brussels could be an international city, or join Wallonia. It's not likely that they join Flanders
What would be the capital? Have they got an idea for a name of the country / state? What products or industry would keep it going?
Are you a "Walloon?" Where do you reside and how would this affect you if you stayed? If Wallonia went independent, would it have it's own administrative capital too?
Is Wallonia geographically separate from Brussels?
"Belgium" is lucky it's all part of the EU and there are laws about borders! This could all get complex very quickly otherwise. I also wonder, if Brussels tied with Wallonia, wouldn;t the sheer size and importance of Belgium mean it quickly became the dominant partner?
Belgium is not going to split up, it's just a lot of BS between the two parties who know full well neither one is going to be happy with the outcome.
- There's no way Flanders is going to give up Brussels, it's located in Flanders, surrounded by dutch speaking country.
- There's no way they will find a solution for the debt problem, Wallonia can't handle it and I'm pretty sure Flanders is not going to offer taking it over.
- Both states are too small to survive, which has nothing to do with money but more with political influence.
Moreover, both states are committed to european integration, a move in the other direction lacks political support. Only Flanders has sufficient nationalists but even there you have to wonder if they have become true nationalists or simply fed up with the christian and socialist party for their endless failures, the corruption, and the problems of the crap system both invented after their language struggle in the 70s.
Do you see potential for a "Troubles"-type situation emerging should Belgium break up? Meaning if Brussels is incorporated into either Wallonia or Flanders that the other community might engage in various acts of violence. This would seem to be more likely if Brussels were incorporated into Flanders.
Honestly, there are a variety of reasons I can see for why this could be a potentially disastrous situation. Belgium has hundreds of billions in government debt and a huge interconnected banking system relative to its size. Were it to break up this would raise serious economic issues.
As for violence, it is unthinkable. There are sometimes demonstrations but they have never been very violent, and unlike in Yougoslavia, there is no resentment between Flemish and Walloon people.
Why? You're used to the "imperial style", with Sarkozy
There are several different scenarios, and I think Albert keeps his job only if Belgium doesn't get divided (and anyways he doesn't reign anymore, he doesn't have any power); if Belgium gets divided, then
- Flanders is likely to remain independent, I don't think they would join the Netherlands
- Wallonia could form a confederacy with Brussels or join France (but in this case I'm moving to Italy)
- Brussels could be an international city, or join Wallonia. It's not likely that they join Flanders
Well, I was making a comparison to the Troubles in Northern Ireland, because I felt that would be more plausible than a Yugoslav scenario.
First lines of the statutes of the N-VA (Flemish party who won the elections and who would get even more votes if there were elections today, according to a poll): "In haar streven naar een beter bestuur en meer democratie kiest de Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie logischerwijs voor de onafhankelijke republiek Vlaanderen, lidstaat van een democratische Europese Unie."
http://www.n-va.be/files/default/nva_images/documenten/statuten.pdf
"In its struggle for a better rule and more democracy, the N-VA chooses logically an independent Flemish republic, member state of a democratic European Union".
It is the first time that an independentist party got so many votes, if you add those who flatly support a Flemish independence (N-VA with the VB and the Lijst Dedecker) you get around 45% of the Flemish votes, and if you add those who support confederalism (CD&V with some from the SP-A and the VLD who were in the Volksunie) you get probably around 70% of the Flemish electorate.
So I can't really predict if Belgium will split up, but we've never been closer to a separation and it gets worse and worse (polls show that the independentists would get even more votes than they had in June, while it was a historical high). The proof is that some Walloon politicians start saying we should prepare for this scenario, which was a total taboo until recently.
I find your view about Brussels very interesting Bub, I immediately thought about another capital in the middle east. Are you suggesting that language is the deciding factor?These are the only reasons why Belgium still exist: huge debt and a struggle to control Brussels. But the debt can be shared, and Flemish can't reasonably claim a city that is only populated by 5% of Dutch-speaking people. As I posted above, studies have shown that this week, I doubt it's a coincidence that these studies are publied now.
Bigger? A country works like a brand it the sense that if you want people to go on holiday in Belgium, they should at the very least know it exists. Flanders may survive but it’s not going to do them much good, they wont have a WC, the olympics or chair the EU as often as Belgium would. It’s going to take time and effort before people find out where to buy the best beer and chocolate.Flanders is bigger and richer than Denmark, Norway, Finland or the 3 baltic states, and according to some studies (also published this week...not a coincidence) a Walloon-Brussel state would be viable
Exactly, and that makes them hypocrites; supposedly supporting european integration while their raison d’etre is the segregation of Belgium. On one hand they are unable to work out their differences with the Walloons but on the other they are convinced they’ll have less problems dealing with 25+ EU countries (among them Wallonia). It’s ridiculous but it’s quite telling at the same time.Flemish nationalists want to be part of the EU, they are European federalists. They just don't want Belgium anymore because they say it is useless and inefficient.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?