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Crouching Bear, Hidden Dragon?

FreeMason

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I had emailed an old professor of Political Science of mine (public policy, holocaust and genocide, and Strategic Warfare are his main fields) what the options are for the US should Russia elect a Communist President and they begin to roll-back reforms.

His response was very interesting, and I think it diserves full study.

A resurgent Russia is a certainty, whether with a communist, czarist, fascist or otherwise authoritarian government. A communist Russia would be just a slight move to the Left of where it is now. Putin was always a commie and now he is imprisoning marketeers. The privatization that Russia attempted meant only that industry would be owned separately by government officials rather than collectively by the government. It hardly ever changed. It was not realprivatization was we saw in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Our fear should come from the increase number of joint Russian-Chinese military operations of the past two years. They are rattling swords just when our sword is being used to cut someone else.

We should just attack now and have done with it.
 

GarzaUK

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FreeMason said:
I had emailed an old professor of Political Science of mine (public policy, holocaust and genocide, and Strategic Warfare are his main fields) what the options are for the US should Russia elect a Communist President and they begin to roll-back reforms.

His response was very interesting, and I think it diserves full study.

A resurgent Russia is a certainty, whether with a communist, czarist, fascist or otherwise authoritarian government. A communist Russia would be just a slight move to the Left of where it is now. Putin was always a commie and now he is imprisoning marketeers. The privatization that Russia attempted meant only that industry would be owned separately by government officials rather than collectively by the government. It hardly ever changed. It was not realprivatization was we saw in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Our fear should come from the increase number of joint Russian-Chinese military operations of the past two years. They are rattling swords just when our sword is being used to cut someone else.

We should just attack now and have done with it.
I was interested in what he was saying until the last line, "We should just attack now and have done with it." USA vs Russia and China? Ahem human extermination anyone?

It is inevitable that the power will swing to Asia. China, India, Russia might catchup. A growing China will make Japan reconsider their nuclear and military capabilities. I think it might be save to say that the US at the end of the century will not be the most powerful nation in the world.
 

Red_Dave

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FreeMason said:
I had emailed an old professor of Political Science of mine (public policy, holocaust and genocide, and Strategic Warfare are his main fields) what the options are for the US should Russia elect a Communist President and they begin to roll-back reforms.

His response was very interesting, and I think it diserves full study.

A resurgent Russia is a certainty, whether with a communist, czarist, fascist or otherwise authoritarian government. A communist Russia would be just a slight move to the Left of where it is now. Putin was always a commie and now he is imprisoning marketeers. The privatization that Russia attempted meant only that industry would be owned separately by government officials rather than collectively by the government. It hardly ever changed. It was not realprivatization was we saw in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Our fear should come from the increase number of joint Russian-Chinese military operations of the past two years. They are rattling swords just when our sword is being used to cut someone else.

We should just attack now and have done with it.
Why is it americas buissness to stop the rest of the world from going comunist [or socialist] anyway? I dont see what right it has to remove any government that subverts it authority by being socialist.
 

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Garza, I can say from my own experience that your claims are entirely baseless.

The only way China will ever have any power is if they side with the US or with Russia, because China cannot feed themselves, nor can they survive without economic support (i.e. people buying their crap) nor do they have a sufficient Nuclear Arsenal to be considered a Super Power.

China's internal problems rule out any possibility of Super Power status.

Furthermore, the rest of the world has no cultural history with China, whereas they do have a cultural history with the West, and with Russia.

This effectively ruins Chinas diplomatic power abroad on an "alliance" scale.

Russia was able to gain minimal support by the export of ideology, but in the end, Russia's sphere of influence was where they had the most cultural influence, and America's sphere of influence was where they had the most cultural influence.

China has almost no cultural influence abroad, and China, Japan, and Korea all are opposed to eachother, culturally, economically, and militarily.

This again, makes China a bad case for "Super Power".

But, Russia can use China, and China can benefit from this.

China has a well developed industrial base, and a large work-force.

Russia has a lot of technology, and a lot of regional power (China controls almost nothing of their neighbors, Russia virtually owns their neighbors and influences nations even further away).

Russia has a massive and well developed Nuclear Arsenal.

Anyway, that's a brief reason as to why China will not be a Super Power, but will be a great complimentary to such.

And conserning the "attack now", this is not a blatantly ignorant statement.

Had we listend to Patton in 1945, we would never have had the cold war.

Now, if we would be more forceful, we will prevent a coming cold war, which seems inevitable. And thus brings me to the last poster, why is it our business?

For the same reasons what the Soviet Union was doing was our business, and the same reasons what Japan and Nazi Germany were doing was our business.
 

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FreeMason said:
Putin was always a commie and now he is imprisoning marketeers. [/i]
Putin is not. Try finding one that supports him. One is not a commie because one imprisons marketeers.
 

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Comrade Brian said:
Putin is not. Try finding one that supports him. One is not a commie because one imprisons marketeers.

thats not good reason to arrest them either..
 

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Comrade Brian said:
:confused: Huh? Could you be more clearer please?

unless I'm mistaken, you were saying he imprisoned marketeers because they didn't like him no?




If not, never mind, never the less...he has yet to find a claim that isn't faulty to imprison a "marketeer"
 

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128shot said:
unless I'm mistaken, you were saying he imprisoned marketeers because they didn't like him no?
Sorry, but that was in response of freemason saying that Putin is a communist, I meant that he should try to find a commie that is in support of Putin.
 

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I'll just take these one at a time.

FreeMason said:
Garza, I can say from my own experience that your claims are entirely baseless.

The only way China will ever have any power is if they side with the US or with Russia, because China cannot feed themselves, nor can they survive without economic support (i.e. people buying their crap) nor do they have a sufficient Nuclear Arsenal to be considered a Super Power.
Very few countries could survive without people buying their "crap". It's called an autarky. None exist in a pure form. There are a couple countries (the US included) that could theoritically survive with no exports, but it would mean a large drop in standard of living.

China also has several hundred nuclear missiles. Certainly not on the level of Russia or the US, but China is expanding their program, not reducing it like we are.

China's internal problems rule out any possibility of Super Power status.
For now. They are getting better.

Furthermore, the rest of the world has no cultural history with China, whereas they do have a cultural history with the West, and with Russia.
A large amount of the world has cultural history with China. All of Asia does. Japan does. Russia does, to some degree.

This effectively ruins Chinas diplomatic power abroad on an "alliance" scale.
A country does not need a cultural history with another to form an alliance.

Russia was able to gain minimal support by the export of ideology, but in the end, Russia's sphere of influence was where they had the most cultural influence, and America's sphere of influence was where they had the most cultural influence.

China has almost no cultural influence abroad, and China, Japan, and Korea all are opposed to eachother, culturally, economically, and militarily.

This again, makes China a bad case for "Super Power".
America made it's own "cultural influence" by the exportation of soft power. There's no reason that China could not do the same. Especially since it has so much more in common with Asia then the US does.

But, Russia can use China, and China can benefit from this.

China has a well developed industrial base, and a large work-force.
Agreed. China has a frightening ability to organize and mobilize the drones, as it were.

Russia has a lot of technology, and a lot of regional power (China controls almost nothing of their neighbors, Russia virtually owns their neighbors and influences nations even further away).
Not true. China has influence over a lot of their neighbors. Look at North Korea. And Russia's neighbors are beaking away. Look at the Ukraine.

Russia has a massive and well developed Nuclear Arsenal.

Anyway, that's a brief reason as to why China will not be a Super Power, but will be a great complimentary to such.
Again, Russia is decreasing their nuclear program and China is increasing. But China is still far behind. I do not believe it is impossible that China becomes a super power. But I do believe it is more likely that Russia does. The Russian population is much better educated, if that counts for anything.

And conserning the "attack now", this is not a blatantly ignorant statement.

Had we listend to Patton in 1945, we would never have had the cold war.

Now, if we would be more forceful, we will prevent a coming cold war, which seems inevitable. And thus brings me to the last poster, why is it our business?

For the same reasons what the Soviet Union was doing was our business, and the same reasons what Japan and Nazi Germany were doing was our business.
It might not be ignorant, but it is extremely dangerous. Russia has over 7,000 nuclear missiles. We couldn't mess with them, even if we wanted to. A much better option is to continue encouraging them like we have. Cut them some slack. They've been a democracy for two decades. Two decades into the US democracy, slavery was rampant and women couldn't vote. Democracy is a process.
 

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Oh ****ing damn it what the **** went wrong?

Sorry Kelzie, I wrote you a detailed response that basically went over how almost all your points are wrong.

Especially the Nuclear arsenals beliefs you were spouting

I'll give you the resources I was drawing from, but I will not re-write this.

**** dick-headed Forum, I was logged in and then suddenly I wasn't?

Resources

http://www.cdi.org/news/nuclear/nuclear-arsenals.pdf

Hutchinson's Clash of Civilizations

Стратегическое ядерное вооружение России (Only a russian source, detailing the Russian Nuclear Programs)
 

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And Comrade Brian, are you saying that the KPRF is diametrically opposed to Putin? Because they're not. I think you're reading far too literally into that one sentence, because you did not get to read what I was messaging my old Professor.
 

Kelzie

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FreeMason said:
Oh ****ing damn it what the **** went wrong?

Sorry Kelzie, I wrote you a detailed response that basically went over how almost all your points are wrong.

Especially the Nuclear arsenals beliefs you were spouting

I'll give you the resources I was drawing from, but I will not re-write this.

**** dick-headed Forum, I was logged in and then suddenly I wasn't?

Resources

http://www.cdi.org/news/nuclear/nuclear-arsenals.pdf

Hutchinson's Clash of Civilizations

Стратегическое ядерное вооружение России (Only a russian source, detailing the Russian Nuclear Programs)
God I hate that. :lol:

It's Huntington. Samuel Huntington. I'm a big fan.

And, as I'm sure you could probably guess, I don't speak Russian. Little french, little german, little spanish, but no russian. I am taking it next semester. I have this curse where I can only take one class of a language before I get bored. Umm...in case you wanted to know.

And, could you point out where on that site my info was disproven? Cause it didn't look like it was.
 

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Yeah I realized my error on his name too late.

Doesn't matter.

I do want to apologize again about not actually giving you the substance of my post, but it was long, and actually thought-out, so I'm not interested in putting the effort forward again.

The largest thing I wanted to direct you to was the online source which is a detailed but brief analysis of the world's Nuclear Arsenals. So you know where China really falls.
 

Kelzie

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FreeMason said:
Yeah I realized my error on his name too late.

Doesn't matter.

I do want to apologize again about not actually giving you the substance of my post, but it was long, and actually thought-out, so I'm not interested in putting the effort forward again.

The largest thing I wanted to direct you to was the online source which is a detailed but brief analysis of the world's Nuclear Arsenals. So you know where China really falls.
I don't really see where I was wrong. It said 400, I said several hundred. What are you trying to say?
 

FreeMason

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Kelzie said:
I don't really see where I was wrong. It said 400, I said several hundred. What are you trying to say?
Yeah, in the post that didn't make it I explained.

So they have Nuclear Warheads.

But their ICBMs and SLBMs total only to a number of ... 32.

All of them are single capacity, so they are not MRVs, thus, they can shoot exactly 32 of their 400 Nuclear bombs at us.

12 are SLBM and thus rely on the ability to actually reach within 1,000km of US shoreline...in which case they cannot hit our ICBM facilities (not that they'd have the accuracy anyway, no SLBM missile does, since if fired correctly, they will not have any accurate data to within 15 meters on point of launch).

Bombers are not a threat because their longest ranged bomber cannot even reach the largest city of Alaska.

China is not in the process of actually manufacturing more missiles. Though there's speculation on if they are researching MIRVs or not.
 

Kelzie

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FreeMason said:
Yeah, in the post that didn't make it I explained.

So they have Nuclear Warheads.

But their ICBMs and SLBMs total only to a number of ... 32.

All of them are single capacity, so they are not MRVs, thus, they can shoot exactly 32 of their 400 Nuclear bombs at us.

12 are SLBM and thus rely on the ability to actually reach within 1,000km of US shoreline...in which case they cannot hit our ICBM facilities (not that they'd have the accuracy anyway, no SLBM missile does, since if fired correctly, they will not have any accurate data to within 15 meters on point of launch).

Bombers are not a threat because their longest ranged bomber cannot even reach the largest city of Alaska.

China is not in the process of actually manufacturing more missiles. Though there's speculation on if they are researching MIRVs or not.
Actually my info (as per the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a much more well known group than yours) says that China has approximately 120 ballistic missiles of four types: the DF-3A, DF-4, DF-5/5A, and DF-21A. Although, you are right, they each only carry one warhead. And they certainly are developing new missiles. Since you will ask:

A new missile, the three-stage, solid fuel, mobile DF-31, is the program's mainstay. Its range is estimated at 8,000 kilometers, and its circular error probable (CEP), or accuracy, at 300--600 meters for its single warhead. At maximum range, the DF-31 may be able to hit Hawaii and Alaska, but not the continental United States
Little farther than 1,000km hmm?
 

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Kelzie, this is why I blew-up at you the first time...do you critically think? You gotta start to break down all the information you gather into pieces so you can see the puzzle...because you just leave them in a big pile.

1) The DF-31(A) is the 8,000 km ranged missile, it's an ICBM, I said the SLBMs have a range of 1,000 km by implying that's how close the subs need to be to our shores, this is true.

2) When tallying ICBMs and SLBMs I tallied only those that are a concern to the US, the 13,000km DF-5/A and the their only SLBM system.

3) Thanks for the CEP data, I didn't have that, that means their missiles are ineffective at attacking our Nuclear forces.

All China can do is kill civilians, we can kill civilians, and defeat their Strategic forces.

Thus if we're willing to have at most a few cities destroyed (it doesn't take 1 Nuke to destroy a city, estimate 4 or 5 to have max effect, from a 1988 or 1984 report I don't have it on me but it's online.) we can easily defeat China.

China knows our only policy against them is total Nuclear response.
 

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FreeMason said:
Kelzie, this is why I blew-up at you the first time...do you critically think? You gotta start to break down all the information you gather into pieces so you can see the puzzle...because you just leave them in a big pile.

1) The DF-31(A) is the 8,000 km ranged missile, it's an ICBM, I said the SLBMs have a range of 1,000 km by implying that's how close the subs need to be to our shores, this is true.

2) When tallying ICBMs and SLBMs I tallied only those that are a concern to the US, the 13,000km DF-5/A and the their only SLBM system.

3) Thanks for the CEP data, I didn't have that, that means their missiles are ineffective at attacking our Nuclear forces.

All China can do is kill civilians, we can kill civilians, and defeat their Strategic forces.

Thus if we're willing to have at most a few cities destroyed (it doesn't take 1 Nuke to destroy a city, estimate 4 or 5 to have max effect, from a 1988 or 1984 report I don't have it on me but it's online.) we can easily defeat China.

China knows our only policy against them is total Nuclear response.
1988? That's kind of a while ago. Almost 20 years. Surely outdated. I said, point blank, that China's nuclear program was nowhere near ours. And you claim I have a problem critically thinking? What do you think I'm saying, exactly?

And I really don't care what reason you have for blowing up. It is not allowed here.
 

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Kelzie said:
1988? That's kind of a while ago. Almost 20 years. Surely outdated. I said, point blank, that China's nuclear program was nowhere near ours. And you claim I have a problem critically thinking? What do you think I'm saying, exactly?

And I really don't care what reason you have for blowing up. It is not allowed here.
How is that out-dated?

The entire US Nuclear infrastructure was built in 1967.

The only things that have changed were the guidance systems, which are not much younger.
 

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FreeMason said:
How is that out-dated?

The entire US Nuclear infrastructure was built in 1967.

The only things that have changed were the guidance systems, which are not much younger.
Are you saying we haven't worked on anything concerning our nuclear technology except guidance systems for 40 years?
 

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Yes Kelzie, it's part of our Nuclear treaties begun in 1967. Our ICBMs primarily were all built in the 1960s. Minuteman (that famed destroyer of worlds) was first produced (off the top of my head) in 1963.

Here's the kicker though...Russia's never listened to those treaties we signed.

Russia has been developing new Nuclear bombs, and new ICBM systems and are in the post-development stage of a new SATAN-18 derivative.
 

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Kelzie said:
Just for you and your outdated report:



That's most weapons, as I'm sure you know.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bomb#Effects_of_a_nuclear_explosion
A ten megaton weapon will never be used in war.

Look at the resource I gave you it will tell you the load capacity of any ICBM and if it's a MIRV you can expect you'd have to divide that load capacity by the number of intended warheads.

Usually a warhead is 750kt - 350 kt.
 
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