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Crisis in Egypt: Morsi and General Al-Sisi vow death

the_recruit

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After the mass protests demanding the ousting of Egyptian President Morsi on Sunday, the General Al-Sisi of the Army issues ultimatum to Morsi to share power or be removed forcibly. President Morsi has responded by declaring he would rather die than step down. Al-Sisi responded in kind and announced he and his forces are too ready to fight to the death.

Meanwhile, the protests, which are already larger than those that pushed out Mubarak two years ago during the Arab Spring, are getting more violent and the death toll is climbing.

The Army's deadline for Morsi to relinquish power is 4:30pm Wednesday. That's 9:30am Eastern time.

Mursi, Egypt army pledge lives in 'final hours' showdown | Reuters
 

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After the mass protests demanding the ousting of Egyptian President Morsi on Sunday, the General Al-Sisi of the Army issues ultimatum to Morsi to share power or be removed forcibly. President Morsi has responded by declaring he would rather die than step down. Al-Sisi responded in kind and announced he and his forces are too ready to fight to the death.

Meanwhile, the protests, which are already larger than those that pushed out Mubarak two years ago during the Arab Spring, are getting more violent and the death toll is climbing.

The Army's deadline for Morsi to relinquish power is 4:30pm Wednesday. That's 9:30am Eastern time.

Mursi, Egypt army pledge lives in 'final hours' showdown | Reuters
Already a thread on this but your post is more current so I’ll comment.

I think the military will remove President Morsi, install a temporary government and take a more active role in protecting the legitimacy of the process than they did last time around. I don’t expect immediate action from the military but I do expect them to gradually get more involved in things and assert their power more forcibly in the coming days or weeks.

Morsi blew it when he usurped powers that he had no authority to usurp but the Egyptian people gave him a chance to make some meaningful changes. Things have gotten worse for them in almost every way possible and it has become evident that Morsi is only interested in retaining power and forcing his Islamist rule upon a fairly secular society.
 

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Already a thread on this but your post is more current so I’ll comment.

I think the military will remove President Morsi, install a temporary government and take a more active role in protecting the legitimacy of the process than they did last time around. I don’t expect immediate action from the military but I do expect them to gradually get more involved in things and assert their power more forcibly in the coming days or weeks.

Morsi blew it when he usurped powers that he had no authority to usurp but the Egyptian people gave him a chance to make some meaningful changes. Things have gotten worse for them in almost every way possible and it has become evident that Morsi is only interested in retaining power and forcing his Islamist rule upon a fairly secular society.
May the same fate follow to all those whom impose religious dictatorships!
 

cpwill

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Meh. Morsi isn't in trouble for being an Islamist. He's in trouble because he was unable to deliver the goods. Egypt's economy has drizzled downwards since the elections.


I think the military will remove President Morsi, install a temporary government and take a more active role in protecting the legitimacy of the process than they did last time around. I don’t expect immediate action from the military but I do expect them to gradually get more involved in things and assert their power more forcibly in the coming days or weeks.
I don't know. The Stratfor guys think that the military doesn't want to rule - it just wants to be left alone with its' power and privileges. That strikes me as pretty plausible.

Morsi blew it when he usurped powers that he had no authority to usurp but the Egyptian people gave him a chance to make some meaningful changes. Things have gotten worse for them in almost every way possible and it has become evident that Morsi is only interested in retaining power and forcing his Islamist rule upon a fairly secular society.
:confused: the party that got the most votes next to the Muslim Brotherhood was the al Nour party - the Salafists who are even more Islamist than the MB. "A Fairly Secular Society"?
 

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Meh. Morsi isn't in trouble for being an Islamist. He's in trouble because he was unable to deliver the goods. Egypt's economy has drizzled downwards since the elections.
I agree with you, in part, if you consider a part of “the goods” to be a legitimate constitutional referendum. My position is that the people of Egypt have a natural right to overthrow Morsi, even though he was democratically elected. I’d be interested in your views on this issue.



I don't know. The Stratfor guys think that the military doesn't want to rule - it just wants to be left alone with its' power and privileges. That strikes me as pretty plausible.
I never said the military wants to rule. I think the military wants a legitimate government. Morsi broke his social contract with the people and became illegitimate almost as soon as he was elected. Democratic elections don’t define legitimacy do they?


:confused: the party that got the most votes next to the Muslim Brotherhood was the al Nour party - the Salafists who are even more Islamist than the MB. "A Fairly Secular Society"?
Yes, it's a fairly secular society considering its location and demographics. I’m interested in why you might disagree with this. Just because the radical groups were more organized in getting votes out doesn’t mean most Egyptians are radical Islamists. In the end however, it's all about legitimacy and Morsi has none right now.
 

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repeat post
 
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cpwill

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I agree with you, in part, if you consider a part of “the goods” to be a legitimate constitutional referendum. My position is that the people of Egypt have a natural right to overthrow Morsi, even though he was democratically elected. I’d be interested in your views on this issue.
Like him or not, Morsi won in a legitimate election, and was the legitimate constitutional choice of the Egyptian people. Mobs in the street do not have a natural right to overthrown the legally expressed will of the Egyptian populace.

Look, I don't like Morsi, I was one of the first to say that the MB would take over and it would go badly. But what we have just established is a new standard - if you can get enough people in the streets and destroy the right amount of property, you can overturn an election and overthrow the government you don't like. We just gave everyone who can bring a mob to bear in Cairo a veto over governance.

I never said the military wants to rule. I think the military wants a legitimate government. Morsi broke his social contract with the people and became illegitimate almost as soon as he was elected.
That is incorrect. Morsi was always an Islamist, the people knew precisely who they were getting. He is, in fact, the only actor in this three-part play that has a claim to legitimacy.

Democratic elections don’t define legitimacy do they?
So long as they are (and Egypt's broadly were) free from fraud, yes.

Yes, it's a fairly secular society considering its location and demographics.
:shrug: if you meant in comparison to - say - Saudi Arabia, I would agree with you. If you were saying in comparison to Morsi.... not quite as much, no. Egypt is not a fairly secular society. For example, pew studies in 2010 found that Egyptians were more likely to support Hamas and Hezbollah than Palestinians.

I’m interested in why you might disagree with this. Just because the radical groups were more organized in getting votes out doesn’t mean most Egyptians are radical Islamists. In the end however, it's all about legitimacy and Morsi has none right now.
No, what Morsi lacks now is the level of popularity he previously enjoyed. That is not the same as "legitimacy". Millions marched against President Obama, too. That doesn't make him not the rightful president of the U.S.
 

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After the mass protests demanding the ousting of Egyptian President Morsi on Sunday, the General Al-Sisi of the Army issues ultimatum to Morsi to share power or be removed forcibly. President Morsi has responded by declaring he would rather die than step down. Al-Sisi responded in kind and announced he and his forces are too ready to fight to the death.

Meanwhile, the protests, which are already larger than those that pushed out Mubarak two years ago during the Arab Spring, are getting more violent and the death toll is climbing.

The Army's deadline for Morsi to relinquish power is 4:30pm Wednesday. That's 9:30am Eastern time.

Mursi, Egypt army pledge lives in 'final hours' showdown | Reuters



"Freedom is messy." ~ Donald Rumsfeld.

And getting messier.

But it does give the news media something to do.
 

Born Free

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Like him or not, Morsi won in a legitimate election, and was the legitimate constitutional choice of the Egyptian people. Mobs in the street do not have a natural right to overthrown the legally expressed will of the Egyptian populace.

Look, I don't like Morsi, I was one of the first to say that the MB would take over and it would go badly. But what we have just established is a new standard - if you can get enough people in the streets and destroy the right amount of property, you can overturn an election and overthrow the government you don't like. We just gave everyone who can bring a mob to bear in Cairo a veto over governance.
There is a thing called "buyers remorse" in this case they now find they voted in the wrong guy. Presidents, leaders, dictators etc are ousted, impeached all the time. I don't care if Morsi is the legitimate constitutional choice, that does not mean he can drive the country into the black hole of destruction. This is exactly what the people have witnessed and are experiencing, thus they "the people" have every right to kick his ass out.

You buy an item at the store with all good intentions that it is going to do what the label says it will do. You then find it's a piece of junk, what do you do, you take it back. Same goes for Morsi.
 

cpwill

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There is a thing called "buyers remorse" in this case they now find they voted in the wrong guy. Presidents, leaders, dictators etc are ousted, impeached all the time. I don't care if Morsi is the legitimate constitutional choice, that does not mean he can drive the country into the black hole of destruction.
Um. Your location says "sunny and nice", but, exactly what country are you in, again? Of course Morsi and the MB can prove inadequate to the task of turning around Egypt's state-driven rentier economy. It is probably beyond the abilities of any actor to do so. Ironically, the MB was probably actually their best bet (and a crappy bet it was, too).

This is exactly what the people have witnessed and are experiencing, thus they "the people" have every right to kick his ass out.
They sure do. If that is allowed for in their Constitution. But most Constitutions are pretty silent on the right to depose a President through the ritual of breaking things and burning buildings.
 

cpwill

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"Freedom is messy." ~ Donald Rumsfeld.

And getting messier.
Yup. I would like to give myself a big pat on the back for roughly predicting this two years ago. However, I would like to admit (full disclosure) that this happened much quicker than I had predicted, which may negate some of its' broader assessed effects.
 

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Like him or not, Morsi won in a legitimate election, and was the legitimate constitutional choice of the Egyptian people. Mobs in the street do not have a natural right to overthrown the legally expressed will of the Egyptian populace.
Look, I don't like Morsi, I was one of the first to say that the MB would take over and it would go badly. But what we have just established is a new standard - if you can get enough people in the streets and destroy the right amount of property, you can overturn an election and overthrow the government you don't like. We just gave everyone who can bring a mob to bear in Cairo a veto over governance.

what Morsi lacks now is the level of popularity he previously enjoyed. That is not the same as "legitimacy". Millions marched against President Obama, too. That doesn't make him not the rightful president of the U.S.

wiki said:
In political science, legitimacy is the popular acceptance of an authority, usually a governing law or a régime.
The majority of people no longer accept his authority, he is not legitimate, he's not just unpopular, if people no longer accept him as a leader and he refuses to comply with their demands he's pretty much a dictator.

Obama is the legitimate leader because the majority of people accept him as their legitimate leader regardless of how much they like or dislike him.

Mursi promised before getting elected that if there comes a time when the people in Egypt would rise up against him as they did Mubarak he would step down and he would not let people die, and now he's basically going to start war in order to hang on to his position.
 

nota bene

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Yup. I would like to give myself a big pat on the back for roughly predicting this two years ago. However, I would like to admit (full disclosure) that this happened much quicker than I had predicted, which may negate some of its' broader assessed effects.
So do you have any amended predictions?
 

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So do you have any amended predictions?
well... I do. But not for here. I would just redirect you to the Stratfor guys, who I think generally are on top of things.

For short term stuff.

For longer term stuff?

ByzSass.jpgTimurid.jpgOttSaf.jpg

Iran will return to her traditional area of influence. Turkey is the player to watch, methinks.
 
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nota bene

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Thanks for the Stratfor tip. I'll look.
 

cpwill

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The majority of people no longer accept his authority, he is not legitimate, he's not just unpopular, if people no longer accept him as a leader and he refuses to comply with their demands he's pretty much a dictator.
We know that he is unpopular. We know that millions have marched against him. The same could easily be said of our own president. Is he illegitimate? No.

In a representative government, legitimacy is conferred by elections. Not mobs in the street. Not military coups. Free and Fair elections, one of which propelled Morsi into power. You don't have to like the result to recognize the superiority of the model to available alternatives.
 

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We know that he is unpopular. We know that millions have marched against him. The same could easily be said of our own president. Is he illegitimate?
No he is just an unpopular legitimate leader, you are no Obama supporter yet you recognize him as your leader, no? so does the majority of Americans I presume.
 

azgreg

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Um. Your location says "sunny and nice", but, exactly what country are you in, again? Of course Morsi and the MB can prove inadequate to the task of turning around Egypt's state-driven rentier economy. It is probably beyond the abilities of any actor to do so. Ironically, the MB was probably actually their best bet (and a crappy bet it was, too).
But that does not mean the people give up, no they continue to fight on for a better existence, rather than follow a failed leader. That is self preservation.

They sure do. If that is allowed for in their Constitution.
They sure do, weather it's allowed or not. The power of the people can change the constitution. You seem to think that because it's law that somehow that gives Morsi the right to change the constitution and turn the country into a dictatorship.

But most Constitutions are pretty silent on the right to depose a President through the ritual of breaking things and burning buildings.
Sure they are silent because it's meaningless, the people can oust a President by execution, a very simple act. And I might add it may be soon Morsi's head may be on a stick paraded down the streets of Egypt, makes no difference what's in the constitution. And lets not forget Morsi has done many none democratic acts as president. Meaning he is a dictator. Off with his head.

Surprise

Egyptian Military Ousts Morsi, Suspends Constitution

Egyptian Military Ousts Morsi, Suspends Constitution

Yes I do live in a place that is sunny and nice all year long.
 

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We know that he is unpopular. We know that millions have marched against him. The same could easily be said of our own president. Is he illegitimate? No.

In a representative government, legitimacy is conferred by elections. Not mobs in the street. Not military coups. Free and Fair elections, one of which propelled Morsi into power. You don't have to like the result to recognize the superiority of the model to available alternatives.
Guess what the people of Egypt suspended the constitution in favor of having a dictator destroy their country. That my friend is freedom. Freedom of the people. We have impeached our own presidents, kicked their ass out. And yes they were elected by the people, so what. It goes to show all that constitution stuff means nothing when the people have had enough of their destructive leaders. Good for the people of Egypt and down with Mosi with his head on a stick.
 

Μολὼν λαβέ

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I was of the understanding Obama was supposed to have the world love us again. Not so much in Egypt

Doug Ross @ Journal: 15 Photos From the Tahrir Square Protests You'll Never See In Legacy Media. #Egypt #Morsi #Obama
:shrug:
I would like to think that with my election and the early decisions that we've made, that you're starting to see some restoration of America's standing in the world.

Barack Obama

My job to the Muslim world is to communicate that the Americans are not your enemy. We sometimes make mistakes. We have not been perfect. But if you look at the track record, as you say, America was not born as a colonial power, and that the same respect and partnership that America had with the Muslim world as recently as 20 or 30 years ago, there's no reason why we can't restore that.

Barack Obama

Wasn't Obama going to make the world like the USA again. Instead he's created more anti-American sentiment.

Drone strikes in Yemen and Pakistan, Bengazi, and now the Arab Spring.

Is this Obama's "Road map for peace?"

I wonder how Obama will spin this? Bush's fault?
 

cpwill

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Guess what the people of Egypt suspended the constitution in favor of having a dictator destroy their country. That my friend is freedom.
No, my friend, that is what our Founders referred to as "the tyranny of the mob".

We have impeached our own presidents, kicked their ass out.
two things :

1. We have never kicked a president out. One upon realizing he would likely be impeached has resigned.
2. Impeachment is a legal process. It is Constitutional. What just happened is the equivalent of if the Army had decided that the anti-war protesters authorized them to remove President Bush from power and install themselves instead.

Good for the people of Egypt and down with Mosi with his head on a stick.
Morsi is no jewel. But the real loser today is not Morsi, it's representative government and the rule of law.

Look, whoever is going to take over after this will be no better able to fix Egypt's problems. They are unlikely to be able to wrest control of the economy from a now-empowered military to turn it around and provide a decent (or, at least, improving) standard of living to the Egyptian people, and they will see their numbers do the same that Morsi did. Except that now we have just established that the way to respond to no longer liking the people in charge is not to form opposition parties, develop well-thought out platforms, and contend with them for the approval of the people in the electoral process. It is instead to set buildings on fire and kill people. You think we won't see an attempted repeat of this?
 
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