Covid: new vaccines needed globally within a year, say scientists

Survey of experts in relevant fields concludes that new variants could arise in countries with low vaccine coverage

The planet could have a year or less before first-generation Covid-19 vaccines are ineffective and modified formulations are needed, according to a survey of epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease specialists.

Scientists have long stressed that a global vaccination effort is needed to satisfactorily neutralise the threat of Covid-19. This is due to the threat of variations of the virus – some more transmissible, deadly and less susceptible to vaccines – that are emerging and percolating.

The grim forecast of a year or less comes from two-thirds of respondents, according to the People’s Vaccine Alliance, a coalition of organisations including Amnesty International, Oxfam, and UNAIDS, who carried out the survey of 77 scientists from 28 countries. Nearly one-third of the respondents indicated that the time-frame was likely nine months or less.
============================================================================
The current round of deletion mutant variants have the loss of just a small number of amino acids in the spike protein causes a major change in the 3D structure of this protein & the loss of a significant number of the epitopes that the 'wild type' virus vaccine recognize. This means the vaccines will become increasingly less effective against the current vaccines. Like the annual flu, the shots are mixtures of vaccines raised from different flu virus strains. New vaccines will have to be developed to handle the increasing number of these variants.

Life as we knew it is forever over.

noonereal said:

Life as we knew it is forever over.

Click to expand...

Get stuck or go extinct with a ventilator tube down your throat when you pass.

We may survive but life after will change significantly. Remember that the horrible Spanish Flu of 1918-9 gave rise to the excesses of the Roaring Twenties. But I can easily see a tremendous increase in illegal drug use. I hear drug overdose calls for EMTs on my scanner every day in suburban Phila. That pattern will not end by itself.

JacksinPA said:

Covid: new vaccines needed globally within a year, say scientists

Survey of experts in relevant fields concludes that new variants could arise in countries with low vaccine coverage

www.theguardian.com

Survey of experts in relevant fields concludes that new variants could arise in countries with low vaccine coverage

The planet could have a year or less before first-generation Covid-19 vaccines are ineffective and modified formulations are needed, according to a survey of epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease specialists.

Scientists have long stressed that a global vaccination effort is needed to satisfactorily neutralise the threat of Covid-19. This is due to the threat of variations of the virus – some more transmissible, deadly and less susceptible to vaccines – that are emerging and percolating.

The grim forecast of a year or less comes from two-thirds of respondents, according to the People’s Vaccine Alliance, a coalition of organisations including Amnesty International, Oxfam, and UNAIDS, who carried out the survey of 77 scientists from 28 countries. Nearly one-third of the respondents indicated that the time-frame was likely nine months or less.
============================================================================
The current round of deletion mutant variants have the loss of just a small number of amino acids in the spike protein causes a major change in the 3D structure of this protein & the loss of a significant number of the epitopes that the 'wild type' virus vaccine recognize. This means the vaccines will become increasingly less effective against the current vaccines. Like the annual flu, the shots are mixtures of vaccines raised from different flu virus strains. New vaccines will have to be developed to handle the increasing number of these variants.

Click to expand...

Covidiots worldwide helped make these mutations more problematic.

Phys251 said:

Covidiots worldwide helped make these mutations more problematic.

Click to expand...

These variants arise naturally when there is active replication of the virus. The only way to stop that for happening is to get vaccinated. Let the anti-vaxxers commit viral suicide.

JacksinPA said:

Covid: new vaccines needed globally within a year, say scientists

Survey of experts in relevant fields concludes that new variants could arise in countries with low vaccine coverage

www.theguardian.com

Survey of experts in relevant fields concludes that new variants could arise in countries with low vaccine coverage

The planet could have a year or less before first-generation Covid-19 vaccines are ineffective and modified formulations are needed, according to a survey of epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease specialists.

Scientists have long stressed that a global vaccination effort is needed to satisfactorily neutralise the threat of Covid-19. This is due to the threat of variations of the virus – some more transmissible, deadly and less susceptible to vaccines – that are emerging and percolating.

The grim forecast of a year or less comes from two-thirds of respondents, according to the People’s Vaccine Alliance, a coalition of organisations including Amnesty International, Oxfam, and UNAIDS, who carried out the survey of 77 scientists from 28 countries. Nearly one-third of the respondents indicated that the time-frame was likely nine months or less.
============================================================================
The current round of deletion mutant variants have the loss of just a small number of amino acids in the spike protein causes a major change in the 3D structure of this protein & the loss of a significant number of the epitopes that the 'wild type' virus vaccine recognize. This means the vaccines will become increasingly less effective against the current vaccines. Like the annual flu, the shots are mixtures of vaccines raised from different flu virus strains. New vaccines will have to be developed to handle the increasing number of these variants.

Click to expand...

So...it's true...COVID is just like the flu. Every year I get my new flu shot...so, every year I'll get my new COVID shot.

Life goes on and so it goes...

Boy, COVID is the gift that just keeps on giving for statists and totalitarians everywhere.

Me: "OK. I'll wear the stupid mask."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Not good enough. Now you can't travel anywhere."
Me: "Rats. Well, at least I can still live and work locally."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Now your businesses are locked down for a few months."
Me: "Crud. Well, I can endure a few months."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Now they're locked down indefinitely."
Me: "Oh man. Well, at least I get to spend time with family and friends."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. No social gatherings. No friends over for dinner."
Me: "@#$%. Well at least the pandemic will end when vaccinations roll out."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Even though vaccines are super effective (tm), none of the restrictions can be lifted. Also, are you wearing three masks now?"
Me: "#%#$% #$%^%^&. At least they can't keep this up forever."
State: "Ha ha. Watch us! A new vaccine every year! Lockdowns forever! ALL HAIL THE POWER OF COVID!"
Me: "It's only slightly more lethal than the @@#$@#$%ing FLU! THIS IS INSANE!"
State: "You seem a bit feverish. COVID, maybe?"

JacksinPA said:

Get stuck or go extinct with a ventilator tube down your throat when you pass.

We may survive but life after will change significantly. Remember that the horrible Spanish Flu of 1918-9 gave rise to the excesses of the Roaring Twenties. But I can easily see a tremendous increase in illegal drug use. I hear drug overdose calls for EMTs on my scanner every day in suburban Phila. That pattern will not end by itself.

Click to expand...

Oh yes, it is a clear choice, vaccine or ventilator. Are you aware of the actual percentage of covid cases that wind up on a ventilator? Is it like 0.001%?

COTO said:

Boy, COVID is the gift that just keeps on giving for statists and totalitarians everywhere.

Me: "OK. I'll wear the stupid mask."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Not good enough. Now you can't travel anywhere."
Me: "Rats. Well, at least I can still live and work locally."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Now your businesses are locked down for a few months."
Me: "Crud. Well, I can endure a few months."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Now they're locked down indefinitely."
Me: "Oh man. Well, at least I get to spend time with family and friends."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. No social gatherings. No friends over for dinner."
Me: "@#$%. Well at least the pandemic will end when vaccinations roll out."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Even though vaccines are super effective (tm), none of the restrictions can be lifted. Also, are you wearing three masks now?"
Me: "#%#$% #$%^%^&. At least they can't keep this up forever."
State: "Ha ha. Watch us! A new vaccine every year! Lockdowns forever! ALL HAIL THE POWER OF COVID!"
Me: "It's only slightly more lethal than the @@#$@#$%ing FLU! THIS IS INSANE!"
State: "You seem a bit feverish. COVID, maybe?"

Click to expand...

Yep, that about describes it.

Phys251 said:

Covidiots worldwide helped make these mutations more problematic.

Click to expand...

Maybe a supreme being is planning on culling the herd of morons who reject science?

COTO said:

Boy, COVID is the gift that just keeps on giving for statists and totalitarians everywhere.

Me: "OK. I'll wear the stupid mask."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Not good enough. Now you can't travel anywhere."
Me: "Rats. Well, at least I can still live and work locally."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Now your businesses are locked down for a few months."
Me: "Crud. Well, I can endure a few months."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Now they're locked down indefinitely."
Me: "Oh man. Well, at least I get to spend time with family and friends."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. No social gatherings. No friends over for dinner."
Me: "@#$%. Well at least the pandemic will end when vaccinations roll out."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Even though vaccines are super effective (tm), none of the restrictions can be lifted. Also, are you wearing three masks now?"
Me: "#%#$% #$%^%^&. At least they can't keep this up forever."
State: "Ha ha. Watch us! A new vaccine every year! Lockdowns forever! ALL HAIL THE POWER OF COVID!"
Me: "It's only slightly more lethal than the @@#$@#$%ing FLU! THIS IS INSANE!"
State: "You seem a bit feverish. COVID, maybe?"

Click to expand...

COTO doesn't like common-sense, livesaving rules, but he has no problem with 500,000 dead Americans.

Phys251 said:

COTO doesn't like common-sense, livesaving rules, but he has no problem with 500,000 dead Americans.

Click to expand...

Death is a part of life.

I'd rather live ten years less in a world where I can actually live--work, interact, socialize, go to the park, go to the movies, go on vacation, breathe freely, enjoy family, enjoy friends--than my full natural lifespan in a world where I can't do any of these things.

The average number of years claimed by a COVID death is a little over two years. Hence even if I conceded that lockdowns were an effective way to stop the spread of the virus (they aren't), or that the lockdowns won't eventually kill more people than they save due to their economic impacts (I don't), I would still choose liberty over security five times over in this case, and stake my life on it.

This insanity of sacrificing living to prolong the lives of the sick and elderly by a couple of years--in a world where they're increasingly more shut in and isolated than anyone--has got to end. We've already lost far too much.

In summary, the 500,000 lives shortened by the virus is a tragedy, but the 330 million lives not lived because of unending restrictions, lockdowns, and loss of freedom is the far greater tragedy.

COTO said:

Death is a part of life.

Click to expand...

If you want to live in a society were they lose nearly 1 in 500 per year to infectious disease, you are free to move there.

There is NOTHING you can do to stop the efforts to a saner, healthier America, no matter how militant your accelerationism obviously is. Hell, you're not even American!

I'd rather live ten years less in a world where I can actually live--work, interact, socialize, go to the park, go to the movies, go on vacation, breathe freely, enjoy family, enjoy friends--than my full natural lifespan in a world where I can't do any of these things.

Click to expand...

"Full natural lifespan"?? You want a "natural world" in the Hobbesian sense, where life is nasty, brutish, and short. The thought of people being able to survive pandemics offends you on a very deep, primal level.

Which raises the question from earlier: Why don't you move to a place where that kind of shit is the norm, since you obviously hate a society where it isn't?

Phys251 said:

If you want to live in a society were they lose nearly 1 in 500 per year to infectious disease, you are free to move there.

Click to expand...

All other things being equal--and assuming this society wasn't in also lockdown--I surely would.

Unfortunately there's nowhere on Earth where "all other things" are remotely equal, and few places on Earth that aren't under identical lockdowns.

Phys251 said:

There is NOTHING you can do to stop the efforts to a saner, healthier America, no matter how militant your accelerationism obviously is. Hell, you're not even American!

Click to expand...

"Accelerationism" is a ultra-leftist political philosophy concerning the destruction of capitalism, not a position on lockdown policy.

It isn't my intent to change American policy. I'm simply arguing a position. My nationality is irrelevant.

Phys251 said:

"Full natural lifespan"?? You want a "natural world" in the Hobbesian sense, where life is nasty, brutish, and short. The thought of people being able to survive pandemics offends you on a very deep, primal level.

Click to expand...

Appeal to extremes. A world free of COVID restrictions is not "nasty, brutish, and short" by any stretch of the imagination.

Also, straw man argument. "People being able to survive pandemics" surely doesn't offend me. Loss of fundamental liberty offends me.

Phys251 said:

Which raises the question from earlier: Why don't you move to a place where that kind of shit is the norm, since you obviously hate a society where it isn't?

Click to expand...

False dilemma. Just because my nation's COVID policy is unwise doesn't mean my only options are to reverse my opinion or else move to another nation.

COTO said:

All other things being equal--and assuming this society wasn't in also lockdown--I surely would.

Click to expand...

Doesn't seem like it. Seems more like you hate a world where healthcare is a thing. Where defeating diseases is a thing. Maybe you've swallowed the accelerationist propaganda?

Phys251 said:

Doesn't seem like it. Seems more like you hate a world where healthcare is a thing. Where defeating diseases is a thing. Maybe you've swallowed the accelerationist propaganda?

Click to expand...

1. Again: You are grossly misusing the term "accelerationist". It does not mean what you intend it to mean here.

2. Your logic is tantamount to arguing that if I oppose having a digital tracking chip embedded in every Canadian, I hate a world where missing children and elders can be found, and where tracking down bail jumpers is a thing.

Can you not understand that as much as I value the ability to track missing or fugitive people, I value the dignity and sovereignty of not being chipped like an animal more?

By the same token, I value prolonging the lives of the sick and elderly individuals who succumb to COVID, but I value the ability for tens of millions (or in the US, hundreds of millions) of people to work, play, socialize, congregate, travel, exercise, shop, commute, and live freely more. Especially since nothing we've done to date has given the slightest indication of permanently solving the problem. Your ideal world where we "defeat the disease" and there's anything left standing by the end of it simply doesn't exist.

There has to be a line in the sand where we say, "We tried. We sacrificed. We failed. And the cost was far too high." For me, that line came months ago, when the "second wave" started and it was obvious that the lockdowns had (predictably) failed to stamp out the disease. Now that mass vaccination is also failing to end the threat, there's simply no excuse for the lockdown insanity.

COTO said:

Again: You are grossly misusing the term "accelerationist". It does not mean what you intend it to mean here.

Click to expand...

Your defensiveness of your accelerationism is strong evidence for its existence, on top of all the other accelerationist crap you have already spewed.

JacksinPA said:

The planet could have a year or less before first-generation Covid-19 vaccines are ineffective and modified formulations are needed, according to a survey of epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease specialists.

Click to expand...

So we'll just roll the current year's covid vaccine into the annual flu shot. No big deal.

Phys251 said:

Your defensiveness of your accelerationism is strong evidence for its existence, on top of all the other accelerationist crap you have already spewed.

Click to expand...

Great.

Hence if I call you a puppy murderer and you explain how your actions in no way resemble puppy murder, your defensiveness "is strong evidence for [the] existence" of your puppy murdering ways.

I'm glad we've sorted out that logic.

I don't understand you. I've seen you make reasonable arguments, particularly in the global warming threads. You can be a capable debater when you want to be. In this thread, I don't know if it's deliberate but you're wasting my and everyone's time.

Vaccines forever. At least 10 or 20 year. If we can't not trust the mega billion dollar drug companies to singularly be concerned with the health of everyone on earth who can give or get them billions of dollars are pure humanitarians of perfect truthfulness and motive. We know this because of their perfect conduct in regards to opiods, weight lose drugs, and their fully charitable prices on their drugs - all are living saints as pure as Jesus Christ himself.
And most of you actually believe they are the definition of perfect ethics at all times in all ways motivates solely by their personal and corporate goodness. I don't. I am highly suspicious and skeptical of the ethnics of Big Pharma and their marriage with the government via massive political contributions.
I actually believe law firm ads on TV stating a federal court just ruled for millions in damages to one person for extreme tortious acts by a drug company are telling the truth. I don't think all the federal and state court jurors are idiots and all of them were all wrong.
Don't get me wrong, I take 4 prescriptions a day for my heart. The Dr. wrote scripts for 5. After reading the potential benefit verses the potential negative side effects, I decided not to take 1 of the 5. The warning mentioned death too much and I would rather be dead than suffer a couple of the worse possible side effects. Once I see the word "stroke" I am not putting that in my body. I bet not 1 in 100 people even read the warning stapled to the bag with the prescription with all that tiny print. I go well beyond that.

COTO said:

Boy, COVID is the gift that just keeps on giving for statists and totalitarians everywhere.

Me: "OK. I'll wear the stupid mask."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Not good enough. Now you can't travel anywhere."
Me: "Rats. Well, at least I can still live and work locally."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Now your businesses are locked down for a few months."
Me: "Crud. Well, I can endure a few months."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Now they're locked down indefinitely."
Me: "Oh man. Well, at least I get to spend time with family and friends."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. No social gatherings. No friends over for dinner."
Me: "@#$%. Well at least the pandemic will end when vaccinations roll out."
State: "Ha ha. Nope. Even though vaccines are super effective (tm), none of the restrictions can be lifted. Also, are you wearing three masks now?"
Me: "#%#$% #$%^%^&. At least they can't keep this up forever."
State: "Ha ha. Watch us! A new vaccine every year! Lockdowns forever! ALL HAIL THE POWER OF COVID!"
Me: "It's only slightly more lethal than the @@#$@#$%ing FLU! THIS IS INSANE!"
State: "You seem a bit feverish. COVID, maybe?"

Click to expand...

In a bad year "The Flu" will kill around 60,000 people in the US.

COVID-19 has killed less than 570,000 Americans.

Now evrewunknoz that "57" is less than "60" so COVID-19 isn't even as bad as "The Flu" is in a bad year - right?

Phys251 said:

If you want to live in a society were they lose nearly 1 in 500 per year to infectious disease, you are free to move there.

There is NOTHING you can do to stop the efforts to a saner, healthier America, no matter how militant your accelerationism obviously is. Hell, you're not even American!



"Full natural lifespan"?? You want a "natural world" in the Hobbesian sense, where life is nasty, brutish, and short. The thought of people being able to survive pandemics offends you on a very deep, primal level.

Which raises the question from earlier: Why don't you move to a place where that kind of shit is the norm, since you obviously hate a society where it isn't?

Click to expand...

You forgot the " solitary, poor, " bit.

COTO said:

All other things being equal--and assuming this society wasn't in also lockdown--I surely would.

Unfortunately there's nowhere on Earth where "all other things" are remotely equal, and few places on Earth that aren't under identical lockdowns.


"Accelerationism" is a ultra-leftist political philosophy concerning the destruction of capitalism, not a position on lockdown policy.

It isn't my intent to change American policy. I'm simply arguing a position. My nationality is irrelevant.


Appeal to extremes. A world free of COVID restrictions is not "nasty, brutish, and short" by any stretch of the imagination.

Also, straw man argument. "People being able to survive pandemics" surely doesn't offend me. Loss of fundamental liberty offends me.


False dilemma. Just because my nation's COVID policy is unwise doesn't mean my only options are to reverse my opinion or else move to another nation.

Click to expand...

Unwise?

Having results that are 17.12 times better than the US results sounds pretty good to me.

TU Curmudgeon said:

Unwise?

Having results that are 17.12 times better than the US results sounds pretty good to me.

Click to expand...

Considering the majority of Canadian provinces didn't lock down as tightly as the average US state, and no Canadian province whatsoever locked down as hard as NY or CA, you might question why your more aggressive lockdown measures didn't prevent your outcome from being 17 times worse.

In fairness, I've read that the reason the US is so hard hit is because your population is extraordinarily overweight and unhealthy, not necessarily because your governors locked away half your 80+ year-old population away to die in death trap nursing homes.

TU Curmudgeon said:

In a bad year "The Flu" will kill around 60,000 people in the US.

COVID-19 has killed less than 570,000 Americans.

Now evrewunknoz that "57" is less than "60" so COVID-19 isn't even as bad as "The Flu" is in a bad year - right?

Click to expand...

I said COVID only slightly more lethal than the flu, referring to its rate of lethality. Obviously it's more infectious, and just as obviously the lockdowns have failed to prevent it from spreading like wildfire.