COVID-19 will soon surpass the Spanish flu as America’s deadliest pandemic

[RetiredUSN]

We had 1/3 of the population we have now.

The Spanish flu was still deadlier by far.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I don't know why I get so bothered.

I'm an engineer by training, 5 years of learning applied advanced math and physics. The only real way to get an objective and accurate view of reality is to perform the calculations. If you fail to do so, I live in a world where things could fail, and people could suffer. I have to deal with reality.

I feel like some people here don't earn a living where their work has any consequence whatsoever. They just spout off with whatever suits their fancy, critical thinking be damned.

Unfortunately, some napkin math landed me forming some unpopular opinions here... but it's where the numbers land me.

I skew heavily liberal politically. Hell, I've just been assumed to be far, far right wing just a few posts ago.

I once had an experience with some engineers.

One of the local military units wanted to install a "jump swing" (used to teach landing techniques to parachutists) in their building. In order to do that they had to get clearance from the engineers. Well, the engineers (all graduate engineers) finally showed up, took their measurements, consulted their tables, and announced that they could NOT certify that a 12" x 18", knot free, well aged, Douglas Fir beam was able to support a load of 200 pounds (which was the minimum acceptable strength).

The reason that the engineers could not certify a 12" x 18", knot free, well aged, Douglas Fir beam as being able to support a load of 200 pounds was that their tables did not include beams of that composition and size.

It took the engineers six months to accumulate sufficient data to certify that a 12" x 18", knot free, well aged, Douglas Fir beam was able to support a load of 200 pounds - in the mean time that unit had used the same beam to suspend a 2,500 pound vehicle of the floor for a display.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

We had 1/3 of the population we have now.

The Spanish flu was still deadlier by far.

The US also did NOT have anywhere near the medical resources then that it has now.

If you are going to "normalize for population", then I suggest that it is appropriate to "normalize for ability to treat" as well.

Without committing myself (and readily admitting that this is an EWAG), I would suggest that the US has (at least) 10 times the "ability to treat" now that it had in 1918. (Remember, the first true antibiotic wasn't discovered until 1928.)

So that means that the actual factor is (EWAG) 10/3rds rather than (partially normalized to make the situation look better) 1/3rd.

 

[RetiredUSN]

1918 took a bigger bite percentage wise regardless.

 

[SheWolf]

It's already killed more than the Nazis.

No it hasn’t.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

1918 took a bigger bite percentage wise regardless.

But did it take a bigger bite considering how resistant to biting the American population is/was?

Quite frankly, the real question to be asked is "Is American doing as well in fighting COVID-19 as it could reasonably have been expected to do given the amount that the US spends on healthcare, the quality of healthcare available, and the ability of the country to fund the fight against COVID-19?".

The answer to that question is "Not by a long shot." and it is the present that presents the challenge NOT the past.

(Although I do acknowledge that "Claque Failed Casino Operator" would REALLY like to see the US revert to what it was in (an idealized) past.)

 

[fireflygmf]

I once had an experience with some engineers.

One of the local military units wanted to install a "jump swing" (used to teach landing techniques to parachutists) in their building. In order to do that they had to get clearance from the engineers. Well, the engineers (all graduate engineers) finally showed up, took their measurements, consulted their tables, and announced that they could NOT certify that a 12" x 18", knot free, well aged, Douglas Fir beam was able to support a load of 200 pounds (which was the minimum acceptable strength).

The reason that the engineers could not certify a 12" x 18", knot free, well aged, Douglas Fir beam as being able to support a load of 200 pounds was that their tables did not include beams of that composition and size.

It took the engineers six months to accumulate sufficient data to certify that a 12" x 18", knot free, well aged, Douglas Fir beam was able to support a load of 200 pounds - in the mean time that unit had used the same beam to suspend a 2,500 pound vehicle of the floor for a display.

I don't know what this says about me, but I can relate with the engineer's point of view. In certifying, he is essentially making a promise. If anything, however unlikely, were to go wrong and it was revealed he had no data and no calculation to backup his position, his *ss is grass.

 

[maxparrish]

And COVID will kill more total Americans.

It's literally what this thread is about.

"What this thread about" is the content of an article used to make a point in the OP. To that end, the article headline of "deadliest Pandemic" and the graphic tally of total deaths by some comparative causes is misleading and a poor measure of how deadly a pandemic is to a population.

In fact, in on the continuum of deadlier to deadliest pandemics even the article admits that "it doesn’t mean the coronavirus pandemic is the deadlier of the two: On a per capita basis, the Spanish flu pandemic killed a much higher percentage of the nation than COVID-19. In 1920, the U.S. population stood at 106 million, compared with 331.5 million in 2020.

And the deadliest pandemic in the Americas was that of smallpox, which killed off 60-90% of the native American population.

By every relevant measure of deadliness to a population the Spanish Flu was far worse than COVID. Unlike COVID, the S.F. was deadly to the very young (<5 yr olds), working age younger adults (20-40), as well as the old (>65). (Note, it killed my great grandmother).

So no, I wouldn't rate COVID as "the deadliest" in American history.

 

[RealityChecker]

"What this thread about" is the content of an article used to make a point in the OP. To that end, the article headline of "deadliest Pandemic" and the graphic tally of total deaths by some comparative causes is misleading and a poor measure of how deadly a pandemic is to a population.

In fact, in on the continuum of deadlier to deadliest pandemics even the article admits that "it doesn’t mean the coronavirus pandemic is the deadlier of the two: On a per capita basis, the Spanish flu pandemic killed a much higher percentage of the nation than COVID-19. In 1920, the U.S. population stood at 106 million, compared with 331.5 million in 2020.

And the deadliest pandemic in the Americas was that of smallpox, which killed off 60-90% of the native American population.

By every relevant measure of deadliness to a population the Spanish Flu was far worse than COVID. Unlike COVID, the S.F. was deadly to the very young (<5 yr olds), working age younger adults (20-40), as well as the old (>65). (Note, it killed my great grandmother).

So no, I wouldn't rate COVID as "the deadliest" in American history.

All good points. Indeed, the Wuhan virus has a ways to go to catch up with deaths caused by AIDS. And the average age of death for those dying of AIDS was far younger than it is for CoVID. So if we look at years of life lost due to a virus it will be a long long time before CoVID even approaches the loss of life caused by AIDS.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I don't know what this says about me, but I can relate with the engineer's point of view. In certifying, he is essentially making a promise. If anything, however unlikely, were to go wrong and it was revealed he had no data and no calculation to backup his position, his *ss is grass.

As an engineer, and without doing any calculations, would you say that a 12x16, knot free, Douglas Fir, beam that can support:

[1] ___more;​

​

or​

​

[2] ___ 1,750 pounds less;​

weight than an 8x12, knot free, Douglas Fir beam (which your tables say can support 2,000 pounds)?

 

[Metric Mouse]

No it hasn’t.

Duh, keep up with the OP - apparently he is only talking about Americans....

 

[Hamish Howl]

Okay, so are we talking about death rate or absolute numbers of corpses in the plague pit?

The average weight of an American is 181 pounds.

There have been 675,000 covid deaths in the USA.

That means we have generated 122,175,000 pounds of dead people, or 61,087 tons.

That is the weight of the USS Iowa, and a couple of escorting destroyers combined. Made out of corpses.

 

[Metric Mouse]

Okay, so are we talking about death rate or absolute numbers of corpses in the plague pit?

The average weight of an American is 181 pounds.

There have been 675,000 covid deaths in the USA.

That means we have generated 122,175,000 pounds of dead people, or 61,087 tons.

That is the weight of the USS Iowa, and a couple of escorting destroyers combined. Made out of corpses.

Which is deadlier, a disease that sinks an empty, retired battle ship or a disease that kills people?

 

[Hamish Howl]

Which is deadlier, a disease that sinks an empty, retired battle ship or a disease that kills people?

wut

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

U.S. deaths from COVID-19 will soon surpass Spanish Flu

At its current pace, COVID-19 would surpass the 675,000 estimated U.S. deaths caused by the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic before the end of September.

fortune.com

To be fair, US population 1918 was a little over 103 million.
Your point still carries weight however, as it is not unreasonable to predict that we will easily cross a million before this is all over, and
well over forty million suffering long term serious health consequences that will last a lifetime.

 

[RealityChecker]

For those interested in how the Chinese Communist party and the US Federal government and some US university professors created this COVID-19 pandemic. Those who do not learn from this history may have to repeat it perhaps with a far deadlier pathogen next time:

Infographic: COVID-19 Outbreak & Cover-up

In their quest to prevent another SARS-like outbreak, Chinese and Western scientists pursued new viruses from bat caves in Southern China. Their efforts would lead them to a mine in Mojiang, China, whe...

www.theepochtimes.com

 

[CaughtInThe]

For those interested in how the Chinese Communist party and the US Federal government and some US university professors created this COVID-19 pandemic.

 

[RealityChecker]

So you think it is funny that human hubris helped create a worldwide pandemic that has sickened tens of millions and already killed several million people? Did you think the Jihadist flying planes into the World Trade Center and Pentagon and killing a few thousand people was funny too?

In their quest to prevent another SARS-like outbreak, Chinese and Western scientists pursued new viruses from bat caves in Southern China. Their efforts would lead them to a mine in Mojiang, China, where six miners had fallen ill with COVID-like symptoms.

It was here that Shi Zheng-li of the Wuhan Institute of Virology found the closest known relative to COVID-19. This virus, along with thousands of other virus samples, would be brought back to several labs in Wuhan.

The Chinese labs were partially funded by Western organizations including Dr. Anthony Fauci’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Peter Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance.

When the COVID-19 pandemic erupted in Wuhan, efforts to promote a natural origins theory while dispelling any discussion of a potential lab leak were spearheaded by Fauci and involved a number of leading Western scientists.