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Could Trump contest even a landslide? That depends on his fellow Republicans.

Rogue Valley

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Could Trump contest even a landslide? That depends on his fellow Republicans.

10/23/20
Could President Trump defy even a landslide against him? This is, increasingly, a serious question, as the polls have widened in favor of Democratic nominee Joe Biden and the president refuses to commit to accepting that result if he loses. The answer, if it comes to that, will depend on the response of Trump’s fellow Republicans. It’s one thing if the numbers on election night, or in the days afterward, show Biden winning handily and Senate Republicans make clear they acknowledge that reality. Then there will be no suspense over the Jan. 6 joint session of Congress that will serve as official confirmation of the result. But if Senate Republicans hesitate, waiting to see how things play out, then the responsibility will shift to Republicans in battleground states, where Trump could encourage GOP-controlled state legislatures to overturn their voters’ judgment. Here, the impact of partisan gerrymandering, and the legacy of Trump’s impeachment, both come into play. The notion of a state’s elected politicians acting to subvert the will of their own citizens should be unthinkable. But that’s, in effect, what gerrymandering is. Elections are supposed to be held for the benefit of voters so that the public obtains the officeholders it wants. Gerrymandering is premised on the contrary approach: letting incumbent politicians manipulate the electoral system to defy the popular will for partisan advantage.

The bigger challenge is whether the politicians who currently hold the reins of power truly want the outcome of the presidential election to turn on the preferences of the voters. That’s where impeachment comes in. The House’s impeachment of Trump, and the Senate’s near-party-line vote to acquit him, impose a particular responsibility on Republicans, both in state government and the Senate. Although it may seem like ancient history, the impeachment was about the election. Democrats consequently argued for conviction because, they said, he was too dangerous to be allowed to remain in office. Senate Republicans were correct to resist that move. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) argued to “let the people decide” the president’s fate in November, and I supported that approach. It does not help democracy to deprive one party of its chosen candidate. The logical consequence of that acquittal is that Alexander and his party now shoulder a responsibility to ensure that their admonition is put into practice. Letting the voters decide now really means letting the voters decide. It means that if Trump tries to secure a second term despite a landslide against him, other elected Republicans must resist that move even if they have the raw power to help Trump’s effort. It would be the ultimate violation if GOP senators repudiated this most fundamental of national values solely for the sake of retaining power.


What used to be an abstract parlor game is now a possibility.
 
The best case scenario is he rejects the outcome and leaves office as a President in Exile.

That outcome is absolutely horrific, yet it's the best outcome we can look forward to.
 
Biden is not going to win in a landslide.

Swing state polls show the race tightening.
Yes, but polls aren't perfect. Last time, the results swang towards Trump. This time, they may swing toward Biden. In reasonably close races, it doesn't take much to get the EC results to really fly. I surely wouldn't be shocked if Biden landslides. I'd be pleasantly surprised. But not shocked.
 
Yes, but polls aren't perfect. Last time, the results swang towards Trump. This time, they may swing toward Biden. In reasonably close races, it doesn't take much to get the EC results to really fly. I surely wouldn't be shocked if Biden landslides. I'd be pleasantly surprised. But not shocked.
I think it’s nearly impossible that the polls are undercounting Biden supporters.

I’ll go on record as predicting that Biden may win in a tight race, but not in a landslide.

Especially given that the Trump events are literally overflowing with supporters, and hardly anyone even showed at the Obama event, never mind the Biden events.
 
I think it’s nearly impossible that the polls are undercounting Biden supporters.

I’ll go on record as predicting that Biden may win in a tight race, but not in a landslide.

Especially given that the Trump events are literally overflowing with supporters, and hardly anyone even showed at the Obama event, never mind the Biden events.
Based upon, what?
 
Based upon, what?


"Well, we're kind of a polling industry disrupter in that we think that the way the industry is being run is very out of date and not in line with modern times, modern values and kind of modern politics to start with the day and age of, you know, mom and dad sitting around the poler waiting for the phone to ring. And this is a political survey. Oh, well, we have to take some time and answer this. I mean, this is not reality. You know, the phone rings at 6:30 at night. You got. You fixing dinner, you're washing dishes, putting kids to bed. Nobody's got time to stop what they're doing and take a 25, 30, 40 question poll. You're not getting regular people. You're getting people who are on the ideological extreme of being way too liberal, way too conservative, or worse yet, people who are bored. We're about polling average people.
 
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Cahaly explains, in another article I'm trying to locate, that lengthy phone and online surveys, conducted by other firms, favor the most liberal and most conservative voters, while Trump's support is with moderates.
I'll glance at it, but that's one guy's opinion. I don't see how you believe you can accurately predict polling skew & error.
 
I think it’s nearly impossible that the polls are undercounting Biden supporters.

I’ll go on record as predicting that Biden may win in a tight race, but not in a landslide.

Especially given that the Trump events are literally overflowing with supporters, and hardly anyone even showed at the Obama event, never mind the Biden events.
Trump's events are overflowing with supporters because his supporters, mostly, are anti-maskers and science-denying fools. They literally don't care about others and don't believe in masks or that covid is a big deal. Biden's supporters, on the other hand, are cautious people and going to the polls to early vote. I dont think you should go by the rallies/events to judge who has more supporters and who is going to vote. It's idiotic and based on your own feeling.
 

"Well, we're kind of a polling industry disrupter in that we think that the way the industry is being run is very out of date and not in line with modern times, modern values and kind of modern politics to start with the day and age of, you know, mom and dad sitting around the poler waiting for the phone to ring. And this is a political survey. Oh, well, we have to take some time and answer this. I mean, this is not reality. You know, the phone rings at 6:30 at night. You got. You fixing dinner, you're washing dishes, putting kids to bed. Nobody's got time to stop what they're doing and take a 25, 30, 40 question poll. You're not getting regular people. You're getting people who are on the ideological extreme of being way too liberal, way too conservative, or worse yet, people who are bored. We're about polling average people.
I think you need to try reading other sources and stop relying on Fox News pundits and opinion writers. You are not getting a clear picture of what's really going on, and are almost as blind as someone who sits and watches CNN and reads liberal opinion pieces 24/7. That's one dude's opinion, that's pretty much it.
 
I'll glance at it, but that's one guy's opinion. I don't see how you believe you can accurately predict polling skew & error.
Most polling firms require participants to give up 40-45 minutes of their personal time. So his argument makes sense to me, that long surveys favor the most liberal, conservative, and bored. While undercounting working class voters, or voters in the political center.

This is only my opinion, and his, of course.

But he did predict the 2016 race more accurately than anyone else.
 
I think you need to try reading other sources and stop relying on Fox News pundits and opinion writers. You are not getting a clear picture of what's really going on, and are almost as blind as someone who sits and watches CNN and reads liberal opinion pieces 24/7. That's one dude's opinion, that's pretty much it.
???

Fox News has nothing to do with Trafalgar polling.

Are you implying that you view both liberal and conservative media regularly? I highly doubt it.
 
Trump's events are overflowing with supporters because his supporters, mostly, are anti-maskers and science-denying fools. They literally don't care about others and don't believe in masks or that covid is a big deal. Biden's supporters, on the other hand, are cautious people and going to the polls to early vote. I dont think you should go by the rallies/events to judge who has more supporters and who is going to vote. It's idiotic and based on your own feeling.


Keep in mind, we are at the beginning of an uptick in COVID infections... Will be interesting to see how this impacts the number of voters who show up the polls on Nov 3rd.
 
Trump >318

Will Biden heed Hillary's admonishment and not conceed?
 
Trump >318

Will Biden heed Hillary's admonishment and not conceed?

Well Eriech, we could always wager a signature that lasts for a month. Winner dictates the siggy sentence (about the election).
 
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