Coronavirus math

[Erod]

By definition, each of us should know a dozen or more people soon that have coronavirus.

The media tells us upwards of 100 million will contract it. It's a pandemic that's out of control. Hundreds of thousands will die.

There are 327 million in the US. So a quarter of us will contract this virus by thre math presented to us. Some will get sick. Others will die.

We will know many of these people personally. The math says so.

The media reminds us every 10 seconds on the air of what the scary numbers are. It reminds me of 9/11 warnings of water contamination, power grid attacks, and Anthrax mail. Boogeymen around every corner.

So far, I know no one. I know no one who knows no one. And I travel heavily, so directly or indirectly, I should eventually hear about hundreds and hundreds of cases through my network of friends and colleagues.

These next 3-4 weeks will tell us a lot about this disease, a lot about the media, a lot about our government, and a lot about our medical community.

A lot of credibility will be earned or lost.

 

[trouble13]

By definition, each of us should know a dozen or more people soon that have coronavirus.

The media tells us upwards of 100 million will contract it. It's a pandemic that's out of control. Hundreds of thousands will die.

There are 327 million in the US. So a quarter of us will contract this virus by thre math presented to us. Some will get sick. Others will die.

We will know many of these people personally. The math says so.

The media reminds us every 10 seconds on the air of what the scary numbers are. It reminds me of 9/11 warnings of water contamination, power grid attacks, and Anthrax mail. Boogeymen around every corner.

So far, I know no one. I know no one who knows no one. And I travel heavily, so directly or indirectly, I should eventually hear about hundreds and hundreds of cases through my network of friends and colleagues.

These next 3-4 weeks will tell us a lot about this disease, a lot about the media, a lot about our government, and a lot about our medical community.

A lot of credibility will be earned or lost.

According to their math the fatality rate is 3%-6%, which would mean 90,000-180,000 are going to die.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

[Simon W. Moon]

By definition, each of us should know a dozen or more people soon that have coronavirus.
The media tells us upwards of 100 million will contract it. It's a pandemic that's out of control. Hundreds of thousands will die.
There are 327 million in the US. So a quarter of us will contract this virus by thre math presented to us. Some will get sick. Others will die.
We will know many of these people personally. The math says so.
The media reminds us every 10 seconds on the air of what the scary numbers are. It reminds me of 9/11 warnings of water contamination, power grid attacks, and Anthrax mail. Boogeymen around every corner.
So far, I know no one. I know no one who knows no one. And I travel heavily, so directly or indirectly, I should eventually hear about hundreds and hundreds of cases through my network of friends and colleagues.
These next 3-4 weeks will tell us a lot about this disease, a lot about the media, a lot about our government, and a lot about our medical community.
A lot of credibility will be earned or lost.

According to their math the fatality rate is 3%-6%, which would mean 90,000-180,000 are going to die.
Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

today, these pessimistic projections seem optimistic

We're only up to less than 1/10 of the US infected

 

[trouble13]

today, these pessimistic projections seem optimistic

We're only up to less than 1/10 of the US infected

Its hard to believe the experts could of been wrong with them having all that science on their side.

 

[Noodlegawd]

today, these pessimistic projections seem optimistic

We're only up to less than 1/10 of the US infected

Many think the number is 3-4 times the number of confirmed cases, if not more.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Its hard to believe the experts could of been wrong with them having all that science on their side.

Are you being sarcastic?

Or are you actually describing the two posters I quoted as "experts"?

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Many think the number is 3-4 times the number of confirmed cases, if not more.

Many people think Jesus is made up, the earth is flat, we didn't land on the moon, that Buddhism is bullshit, that JFK and Elvis are still alive, that Santa Clause exists, Trump is smart, and Biden is good looking


The thing is though,
not all of those things are true.

And the number of people who believe them has zero bearing on whether or not it's true.

 

[Noodlegawd]

Many people think Jesus is made up, the earth is flat, we didn't land on the moon, that Buddhism is bullshit, that JFK and Elvis are still alive, that Santa Clause exists, Trump is smart, and Biden is good looking


The thing is though,
not all of those things are true.

And the number of people who believe them has zero bearing on whether or not it's true.

The "many" I'm referring to are epidemiologists, and they think that based on actual seroprevalence studies.

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

Oh, and Jesus IS made up, according to the total lack of any meaningful evidence such a person actually existed and did all the things he was claimed to have done.

 

[snakestretcher]

Its hard to believe the experts could of been wrong with them having all that science on their side.

It's a novel, previously unknown disease and unlike any other. What did you expect?

 

[snakestretcher]

Its hard to believe the experts could of been wrong with them having all that science on their side.

'Could have been wrong', or 'could've' been wrong. Glad to help.

 

[trouble13]

It's a novel, previously unknown disease and unlike any other. What did you expect?

Kudos to you my friend. You are asking the single best question on this subject that anyone has asked me yet.

Lets start with what I dont expect. I dont want a bunch of ego maniacs with pedigrees presenting their opinions as facts and when those opinions are challenged, for them to act like they cant be questioned because they are following the science. Call that whatever you like amd assign whatever motive you want to it but at the end of the day it is a distortion of the truth.

What I expect is honesty from them. From the very beginning they should of leveled with everyone and said they don't understand the nature of this virus. They dont know how it transmits, how contagious it is, how deadly it is, how to treat it, how to slow it from spreading.

They should of then made it clearly to everyone that in their professional opinion it had the potential to be a very big problem and these are the steps they recommend people take to defend against it.

I expect them to arm the public with the best information available and then leave it to the public to exercise their best judgment. How's that for a novel concept.

 

[snakestretcher]

Kudos to you my friend. You are asking the single best question on this subject that anyone has asked me yet.

Lets start with what I dont expect. I dont want a bunch of ego maniacs with pedigrees presenting their opinions as facts and when those opinions are challenged, for them to act like they cant be questioned because they are following the science. Call that whatever you like amd assign whatever motive you want to it but at the end of the day it is a distortion of the truth.

What I expect is honesty from them. From the very beginning they should of leveled with everyone and said they don't understand the nature of this virus. They dont know how it transmits, how contagious it is, how deadly it is, how to treat it, how to slow it from spreading.

They should of then made it clearly to everyone that in their professional opinion it had the potential to be a very big problem and these are the steps they recommend people take to defend against it.

I expect them to arm the public with the best information available and then leave it to the public to exercise their best judgment. How's that for a novel concept.

This was at the very early stages of the outbreak, not yet classified a pandemic by the WHO...

'Danger of getting coronavirus now is just minusculely low'

Did the new coronavirus start in a market? Is China fudging COVID-19 numbers? How close are we to a vaccine? Do masks work? Dr. Anthony Fauci answers.

eu.usatoday.com

 

[trouble13]

This was at the very early stages of the outbreak, not yet classified a pandemic by the WHO...

'Danger of getting coronavirus now is just minusculely low'

Did the new coronavirus start in a market? Is China fudging COVID-19 numbers? How close are we to a vaccine? Do masks work? Dr. Anthony Fauci answers.

eu.usatoday.com

I am not sure what you mean? you asked me what my expectation is and I answered that. I expect them to be honest about what they know and don't know. I expect them to give everyone all the information they have. I expect them to leave it in the hands of the people to make their own decisions about their health.

 

[snakestretcher]

I am not sure what you mean? you asked me what my expectation is and I answered that. I expect them to be honest about what they know and don't know. I expect them to give everyone all the information they have. I expect them to leave it in the hands of the people to make their own decisions about their health.

Fauci was being honest during that interview, and made it clear there was a lot to learn about the virus. Read it; all of it, and report back. It's quite clear that leaving people to make their own decisions has resulted in millions making the wrong decision, with over 400,000 dying as a result. Mandates with no penalty for non-compliance clearly don't work any better than a polite request.

 

[trouble13]

Fauci was being honest during that interview, and made it clear there was a lot to learn about the virus. Read it; all of it, and report back. It's quite clear that leaving people to make their own decisions has resulted in millions making the wrong decision, with over 400,000 dying as a result. Mandates with no penalty for non-compliance clearly don't work any better than a polite request.

lol @ report back....
I have listened to all the arguments and have drawn my conclusion as I am sure you have done as well. I shared my expectation with you. My only intent is to help you understand my position. I don't expect you or anyone making an appeal to authority to agree with me.