Coronavirus: fully effective vaccine unlikely to be created before next year, expert says

Coronavirus: fully effective vaccine unlikely to be created before next year, expert says | South China Morning Post

French epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet says that despite ‘unprecedented effort’ a vaccine is still not like before next year

He said the main risks for the appearance of new virus clusters were in confined spaces

There is little chance of a 100 per cent effective coronavirus vaccine by 2021, a French expert warned Sunday, urging people to take social distancing measures more seriously.

“A vaccine is several years in development,” said epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet, a member of the team of scientists advising the government on the crisis, speaking on BFMTV television.

“Of course, there is an unprecedented effort to develop a vaccine, but I would be very surprised if we had that was effective in 2021,” he added.
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He said that the next stage in development would be a partially effective vaccine sometime next year.

I think this guy is an optimist. No vaccine for a coronavirus (MERS, SARS) has ever been made. And the virus has a means for turning off the manufacture of proteins called antibodies by your immune system. An infection can progress quickly enough to defeat any vaccine.

I keep saying that our best bet in the near term is anti-viral drugs: two are known to block entry of the virus into your cells, and others can inhibit 2 protease enzymes that the virus needs to multiply.

Influenza vaccines have never been "fully" or "100%" effective against all strains of the flu, and they have to be given every year, but they're a hell of a lot better than going commando.

Ahlevah said:

Influenza vaccines have never been "fully effective" against all strains of the flu, and they have to be given every year, but they're a hell of a lot better than going commando.

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As we know that there are at least 2 strains in circulation, it is likely that multiple vaccines will be needed & people will need to be revaccinated at least on a yearly basis.

All these geniuses and they can't come up with a vaccine, very disappointing. The egg heads need to do better and work harder.

JacksinPA said:

As we know that there are at least 2 strains in circulation, it is likely that multiple vaccines will be needed & people will need to be revaccinated at least on a yearly basis.

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I'm a casino dealer. We get a lot of "snow birds" in the winter. I see people from all over the world, more than a few of them obviously ill when they come in to gamble. I've always made it a point to get a flu shot every season, and can't recall the last time I had it. I suppose when I was a kid. I'll get this vaccine when it comes, and it will.

yankintx said:

All these geniuses and they can't come up with a vaccine, very disappointing. The egg heads need to do better and work harder.

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No vaccine for HIV after 40+ years. Some viruses are hard to defend against with a vaccine. And the coronavirus family has those defenses I mentioned that interfere with your immune system so it can effectively neutralize the immune response from a vaccine.

Ahlevah said:

I'm a casino dealer. We get a lot of "snow birds" in the winter. I see people from all over the world, more than a few of them obviously ill when they come in to gamble. I've always made it a point to get a flu shot every season, and can't recall the last time I had it. I suppose when I was a kid. I'll get this vaccine when it comes, and it will.

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You have faith & believe in miracles?

yankintx said:

All these geniuses and they can't come up with a vaccine, very disappointing. The egg heads need to do better and work harder.

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Actually, I'm impressed at the speed of development. Usually it takes years, if ever, to develop a vaccine. I'll only be disappointed if these vaccines don't work.

A COVID-19 vaccine may come soon. Will the blistering pace backfire? | Science News

JacksinPA said:

You have faith & believe in miracles?

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I believe in staying healthy so I can earn a paycheck.

JacksinPA said:

As we know that there are at least 2 strains in circulation, it is likely that multiple vaccines will be needed & people will need to be revaccinated at least on a yearly basis.

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How viruses typically work, if you get a virus, recover, and clear the virus, you get lasting immunity. It is how it works with chickenpox and measles. People don't get reinfected after getting the virus. That doesn't make any sense.

JacksinPA said:

No vaccine for HIV after 40+ years. Some viruses are hard to defend against with a vaccine. And the coronavirus family has those defenses I mentioned that interfere with your immune system so it can effectively neutralize the immune response from a vaccine.

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All the more reason for them to work harder.

Bucky said:

How viruses typically work, if you get a virus, recover, and clear the virus, you get lasting immunity. It is how it works with chickenpox and measles. People don't get reinfected after getting the virus. That doesn't make any sense.

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The immune system remembers the antigens in the infection so it can respond quickly. The coronavirus has a protein called nsp1 that bonds to your ribosomes & prevents the manufacture of cellular proteins (antibodies) but allows viral proteins to be made. Very tricky stuff. I spent the first 2 months in quarantine studying the coroinaviruses & they are very complex. Each virus has 29 non-structural proteins, 5 or 6 structural proteins & an assortment of accessory proteins. Many of these also interfere with your immune system. COVID-19 is a tough bugger, a sophisticated product of virus evolution. No coronavirus was known to infect anything before 2002.

yankintx said:

All the more reason for them to work harder.

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It’s just not that simple, every nation capable of doing so is mounting, in some cases multiple ventures to find a vaccine and is throwing essentially an unlimited budget behind it, if you actually look at it, it’s almost like a global arms race because anyone who can crack the nut first will be at a massive global advantage in the years to come.

Nothing to do with hard work, all the minds and resources are there but there are limits to what current medical technology and science can achieve and the longer this crisis goes on, the more strains there will be and the less likely unless it becomes much less deadly, we can completely stop it.

JacksinPA said:

The immune system remembers the antigens in the infection so it can respond quickly. The coronavirus has a protein called nsp1 that bonds to your ribosomes & prevents the manufacture of cellular proteins (antibodies) but allows viral proteins to be made. Very tricky stuff. I spent the first 2 months in quarantine studying the coroinaviruses & they are very complex. Each virus has 29 non-structural proteins, 5 or 6 structural proteins & an assortment of accessory proteins. Many of these also interfere with your immune system. COVID-19 is a tough bugger, a sophisticated product of virus evolution. No coronavirus was known to infect anything before 2002.

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so nature was developing this little virus for a while now?

Unitedwestand13 said:

so nature was developing this little virus for a while now?

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Yes. The component proteins that do the damage are upgrades of the SARS virus that blew itself out. But it took only 18 years to develop COVID-19 from non-infective coronaviruses.