Consequences of U.S. leaving Iraq (1 Viewer)

[alphamale]

Suppose the U.S. "declares victory" and leaves Iraq one month after the elections. What is the likely result of this?

 

[Kandahar]

Immediate civil war, probably followed by the dissolution of the country into three states: A semi-democratic Kurdistan, a rogue and/or autocratic Sunni state, and a semi-theocratic Shiite state.

Not a pretty picture. With that said, it's still a prettier picture than our continued presence.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Al qaeda takes over and establishes a base for worldwide assaults.

aQ will never "take over" Iraq. However, they have already established training bases.


Iraq becomes essentially a satellite of Iran.

Yes and no. Culturally their certainly are many profound ties between Iran and many Iraqis. The major political parties spent quite a bit of formative time in Iran and were/are beneficiaries of Iranian support. However, Iran's supoort is seen as a matter of convenience on Iran's part and the quality of Iraqi of gratitude reflects this. There're differences in how Iraqi, Shia clerics see their position v how the Iranian regime sees the role of clerics.

"Although Al Dawa and SCIRI operated in Iran from 1980 onwards, they remain Iraqi nationalists, and their “gratitude” to Iran is often limited – particularly because of Iran’s history of treating them on an opportunistic basis. ... members of both parties resent past pressure to recognize the authority of Iran’s supreme leader."
​

However, since the Iranians are in a position to bring about many "circumstances of convenience" that would cause it to be beneficial in a realpolitik sense for Iraqis of influence to be beholden to Iranians, the limitations of their gratitude may often wind up moot- especially in the short to mid-term, until Iraq is healthier and more self-sufficient.


The democratic process goes forward and stability is established eventually.

Eventually


Shiites establish a dictatorship.

Arguably, this has already occured in some places.


A long period of civil war.

By some accounts, the civil war has already begun.


Other.

Some of all of the above

 

[Trajan Octavian Titus]

What if we had left Germany or Japan before their elections? I say we shouldn't leave until after the elected gov't asks us to which I seriously doubt they will. Face it for good or ill we're in this one for the long hall get over your instant gratification fixation and start looking towards the long term, shoot talk of leaving Japan and Germany didn't even start until the 90's and we're still there now in 2005. And what's the deal here wasn't there already elections in Iraq longer than a month ago?

 

[Simon W. Moon]

What if we had left Germany or Japan before their elections? ... shoot talk of leaving Japan and Germany didn't even start until the 90's and we're still there now in 2005.

Umm, so?
The price of tea in China has not kept up w/ the pace of inflation in years that end in a prime number.

Face it for good or ill we're in this one for the long hall get over your instant gratification fixation and start looking towards the long term ...

What if someone's decision to withdraw troops is based on other factors? Is it possible that anyone could reach this conclusion w/o an "instant gratification fixation"?
What about someone like General Odom? He makes a case for "cutting and running" w/ nary a refernce to instant gratification. Is he merely deluded? Or does he actually make his case for the reasons he thinks he makes it?

"If I were a journalist, I would list all the arguments that you hear against pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq, the horrible things that people say would happen, and then ask: Aren’t they happening already? Would a pullout really make things worse? Maybe it would make things better."

The US invasion of Iraq only serves the interest of:

1) Osama bin Laden (it made Iraq safe for al Qaeda, positioned US military personnel in places where al Qaeda operatives can kill them occasionally, helps radicalize youth throughout the Arab and Muslim world, alienates America's most important and strongest allies – the Europeans – and squanders US military resources that otherwise might be finishing off al Qaeda in Pakistan.);

2) The Iranians (who were invaded by Saddam and who suffered massive casualties in an eight year war with Iraq.);

3) And the extremists in both Palestinian and Israeli political circles
​

Lieutenant General William E. Odom, U.S. Army (Ret.), is a Senior Fellow with Hudson Institute and a professor at Yale University. He was Director of the National Security Agency from 1985 to 1988. From 1981 to 1985, he served as Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, the Army's senior intelligence officer. From 1977 to 1981, he was Military Assistant to the President's Assistant for National Security Affairs, Zbigniew Brzezinski.
​

 

[Trajan Octavian Titus]

Umm, so?
The price of tea in China has not kept up w/ the pace of inflation in years that end in a prime number.

This has what to do with long term troop deployment on foriegn soil?

What if someone's decision to withdraw troops is based on other factors? Is it possible that anyone could reach this conclusion w/o an "instant gratification fixation"?
What about someone like General Odom? He makes a case for "cutting and running" w/ nary a refernce to instant gratification. Is he merely deluded? Or does he actually make his case for the reasons he thinks he makes it?

"If I were a journalist, I would list all the arguments that you hear against pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq, the horrible things that people say would happen, and then ask: Aren’t they happening already? Would a pullout really make things worse? Maybe it would make things better."

The US invasion of Iraq only serves the interest of:

1) Osama bin Laden (it made Iraq safe for al Qaeda, positioned US military personnel in places where al Qaeda operatives can kill them occasionally, helps radicalize youth throughout the Arab and Muslim world, alienates America's most important and strongest allies – the Europeans – and squanders US military resources that otherwise might be finishing off al Qaeda in Pakistan.);

2) The Iranians (who were invaded by Saddam and who suffered massive casualties in an eight year war with Iraq.);

3) And the extremists in both Palestinian and Israeli political circles
​

Lieutenant General William E. Odom, U.S. Army (Ret.), is a Senior Fellow with Hudson Institute and a professor at Yale University. He was Director of the National Security Agency from 1985 to 1988. From 1981 to 1985, he served as Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, the Army's senior intelligence officer. From 1977 to 1981, he was Military Assistant to the President's Assistant for National Security Affairs, Zbigniew Brzezinski.
​

Don't care what this guy has to say until the duelly elected Iraqi gov't asks us to leave we should stay until the job is done and try to make Democracy work there.

 

[Canuck]

mind your bussiness america
and let the iraq people do what ever they want
if you want to stop al queda remove all the basses as per binladen request prior to 9/11
your arrogance has brought 9/11 on
your arrogance will bring 1000 x 9/11

the first wtc bombing was with manure
the second was 707 bombs
the next will be worse and so on
WAKE UP AMERICA

 

[Trajan Octavian Titus]

mind your bussiness america
and let the iraq people do what ever they want
if you want to stop al queda remove all the basses as per binladen request prior to 9/11
your arrogance has brought 9/11 on
your arrogance will bring 1000 x 9/11

the first wtc bombing was with manure
the second was 707 bombs
the next will be worse and so on
WAKE UP AMERICA

What the hell do you think we're doing if not letting the Iraqi people make up there own mind of what they want to do through representative gov't made by and for the Iraqi people when the legitimate elected Iraqi gov't asks us to leave then you'll have a case what do you suggest leave them in anarchy so that al-qaeda can take over? Actually, what am I talking about from the posts of yours that I've read you are probably in al-qaeda or atleast a sympathizer.

And did you honestly just say to give into Bin-Ladins demands?!!!! Over my dead ****ing body mother ****er not while my lungs still draw breath and my gun holds a bullet, never will the American people capitulate to the demands of tyrants and despots!!!!!!!!!!!! We will seek them out and kill them where ever they are and where ever they hide we will find them and wipe their ilk from this earth!!!!!!

Nex ut Tyrannus y Sic Semper Tyrannus, Licentia vel Nex!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!