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Starting a "he said, she said" dispute... being shown the fallacy of your claims... then asserting that you're not going to get into a "he said, she said" dispute... and THEN trying to prove your "he said, she said" point again. Nice workI decline your ploy to get into a "he said", "she said" dispute
By all means, you're welcome to provide the data proving this assertion. Obviously (and particularly given your track record so far) your mere say-so is worth, if anything, a little less than nothing.maxparrish said:The ONLY relevancy, as I keep trying imprint on your stubborn brain, is that among the population of trans gender athletes known in women's sports, they are at the higher end of the bell curve WITHIN the groups they compete.
Laurel Hubbard looks set to be come the first ever transgender Olympian and by implication may likewise have been the only transgender athlete in the Commonwealth Games... so you want to look at the "average" of transgender Commonwealth or Olympic athletes to make some kind of argument? I know you've asked this before but I didn't bother responding because I figured it must have been just a poor choice of words, that surely - surely! - you would understand the problem with this. An "average" from a sample size of one is essentially meaningless, a sample of two or three not much better. On the 'bell curve' of cis females interested in athletics there are thousands of women near the top end, so those qualifying for elite competitions will cover a fair spread of ability; but the bell curve of trans female athletes has far fewer members, meaning only a handful at the top. There may be no trans qualifiers for many elite competitions (would that give you an average of zero and disprove your point?), or just one or two offering no viable averaging method for trans athletic performance generally.maxparrish said:So if that population scores above the average compared to all real women in that competitive sport grouping: be it Commonwealth games or age brackets, or any other group, then there is an advantage.
So as I said, show me the average. Show me that for every McMinnon, Hubbard, et al. there are scores, hundreds, or thousands of trans female competitors that average out the trans bell curve for a sport group - you can't because they don't exist to our knowledge.
Now if you can't grasp the statistical principle behind my assertions, I don't have the time or inclination to tutor you. But here's a hint: in all the commonwealth games how many were transgender females? What was their median placing? Was their median placing exactly the placing of biological females in the same competition?
One possible way of deriving valid conclusions about trans athletic performance would be look at straightforward averages based on viable sample sizes, which necessarily requires athletic results from physically-inclined but less elite groups. This was the approach of Timothy Roberts et al, mentioned above, using evaluation data from military service members. If trans female Air Force members (46 women from 2013 to 2018) achieve the same fitness results to cis female Air Force members after two years on hormone replacement treatment, all else being equal that strongly suggests that any residual advantages of a once-masculine physique have been effectively nullified by the disadvantages of having even lower testosterone levels than the cis women, apparently with some possible ambiguity in the case of running.
Another way of deriving valid conclusions would be comparing the averages of male athletes vs. female athletes at a certain level and see how that difference corresponds to the performance of trans athletes at that level before vs. after transitioning: For example if there's robust data indicating that elite male athletes on average are ~20% better at a given sport than women, then all we'd need is data from a few elite trans female athletes indicating a ~20% decrease in performance after transitioning to be confident that any residual advantages have been fully offset. This was the approach of Joanna Harper et al which BrotherFease has repeatedly mentioned, suggesting that as little as twelve months on hormone replacement treatment is enough to nullify any advantages.
The fact that both of these distinct methods form convergent lines of evidence confirming that trans women can indeed compete on equal footing after a year or two within the hormone guidelines should be rather persuasive to an intelligent and objective person, particularly given the total absence of any contrary evidence. But instead you want to talk about "averaging" the results from a sample size of one or two in competitions where there have been trans female qualifiers (while presumably glossing over and ignoring any competitions where they have failed to qualify)
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