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Bush was very careful in riding the coattails of 9/11. Did he or did he not say Iraq (Saddam) was tied to 9/11? Doesn't matter. It worked. Like you say, those predisposed to believing it did.The arguments for invading Iraq the second time around were obvious bullshit to everybody with a functioning cortex. People believed the arguments if they were predisposed to believing them.
Iraq had been in the crosshairs of neocons prior to W's election. George was a willing participant. Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz ran the show.