CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high

[Chomsky]

Overall, 50% of registered voters back the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right at the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Among the 72% of voters who say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall, Biden's advantage over Trump widens to 53% to 46%. It is narrower, however, among those voters who live in the states that will have the most impact on the electoral college this fall.

Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%.

The movement in the poll among voters nationwide since June is concentrated among men (they split about evenly in June, but now 56% back Trump, 40% Biden), those between the ages of 35 and 64 (they tilt toward Trump now, but were Biden-leaning in June) and independents (in June, Biden held a 52% to 41% lead, but now it's a near even 46% Biden to 45% Trump divide).

Trump has also solidified his partisans since June. While 8% of Republicans or Republican-leaning independents in June said they would back Biden, that figure now stands at just 4%. And the President has boosted his backing among conservatives from 76% to 85%.

Source: (CNN) CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high

Well! Either this poll is an outlier, or there has been a huge shift since June. The numbers speak for themselves.

I personally think it's a combination of both the race both getting tighter and possibly a Biden negative leaning poll. But it might not be. Trump has been campaigning nearly daily, via his 'pandemic update' segments. And he has finally tried to show he's addressing the pandemic. So, maybe it's working?

We'll have to see if there's confirming polls during the upcoming week.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Source: (CNN) CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high

Well! Either this poll is an outlier, or there has been a huge shift since June. The numbers speak for themselves.

It's not really an outlier, Harris has Biden +4, Emerson had him +4, Zogby had him +3, Rasmussen had him bouncing around between +2 and +6, CNBC has him +6

 

[Chomsky]

It's not really an outlier, Harris has Biden +4, Emerson had him +4, Zogby had him +3, Rasmussen had him bouncing around between +2 and +6, CNBC has him +6

Yeah, but he's doing around +8 in the RCP aggregator, with the last several polls showing +7, +9, +10.

But if it is 4 pts nationally, that puts the battle-grounds at parity, which means the election would be at a dead heat.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Yeah, but he's doing around +8 in the RCP aggregator, with the last several polls showing +7, +9, +10.

But if it is 4 pts nationally, that puts the battle-grounds at parity, which means the election would be at a dead heat.

This is an exact replay of 2016. At least, it feels like it to me.

 

[Greenbeard]

This is an exact replay of 2016. At least, it feels like it to me.

The 170K dead and double digit unemployment feel a little different.

 

[buck]

I have to believe that the rioting, attacks on cops, defund the police and more spotlight on blm had some impact on the narrowing. But no mention of tell. Of it in the article? Seems unlikely,, but time will tell.

 

[apdst]

The 170K dead and double digit unemployment feel a little different.

Too bad for you those aren't Trump's fault.

 

[Chomsky]

This is an exact replay of 2016. At least, it feels like it to me.

Not to me. Then, the two candidates had many periods of tightening & loosening over the year. And by 'tightening & loosening', they actually touched parity multiple times. But here, Biden has maintained a pretty steady & consistent lead. Up 'till now, if the poll is accurate?

 

[Carolina]

Too bad for you those aren't Trump's fault.

Except it is. We didn't need the Man at rallies and on TV telling the Nation that Corona was a hoax and it would simply vanish by Summer.

 

[Cardinal]

The 170K dead and double digit unemployment feel a little different.

How so?

 

[Chomsky]

I have to believe that the rioting, attacks on cops, defund the police and more spotlight on blm had some impact on the narrowing. But no mention of tell. Of it in the article? Seems unlikely,, but time will tell.

I still would need to see several polls going forward confirming this tightening. The polls of the past several days on RCP show +7, +9, +10. And those are between the 12-14th. So only several days old.

 

[Cardinal]

Source: (CNN) CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high

Well! Either this poll is an outlier, or there has been a huge shift since June. The numbers speak for themselves.

I personally think it's a combination of both the race both getting tighter and possibly a Biden negative leaning poll. But it might not be. Trump has been campaigning nearly daily, via his 'pandemic update' segments. And he has finally tried to show he's addressing the pandemic. So, maybe it's working?

We'll have to see if there's confirming polls during the upcoming week.

I feel like this tightening of the polls is accurate, and if it's similar to the margins in 2016, it forces me to wonder if the personal hatred of Clinton was as much of a factor as most of us assumed it to be. If this is true, then it means that right wing populism and the rise of right wing authoritarianism is a force wholly independent of the respective candidates.

 

[apdst]

Except it is. We didn't need the Man at rallies and on TV telling the Nation that Corona was a hoax and it would simply vanish by Summer.

He didn't say the kung flu was a hoax, nor did he cause the pandemic.

 

[Chomsky]

I feel like this tightening of the polls is accurate, and if it's similar to the margins in 2016, it forces me to wonder if the personal hatred of Clinton was as much of a factor as most of us assumed it to be. If this is true, then it means that right wing populism and the rise of right wing authoritarianism is a force wholly independent of the respective candidates.

In the larger sense, that could be right.

But I'm at a loss to see what dynamics changed, to cause this. BLM & the pandemic are still chugging along as they've been for weeks. The stimulus and Post Office were the only things of note, recently added.

Then there's the very recent polls of +7, +9, +10, with the +10 Friday. How do we reconcile them? I suppose by the +4'ish polls ReubenSherr mentioned earlier in the thread?

I'm going to wait-out a few more polls, to make a call on this.

 

[Cardinal]

In the larger sense, that could be right.

But I'm at a loss to see what dynamics changed, to cause this. BLM & the pandemic are still chugging along as they've been for weeks. The stimulus and Post Office were the only things of note, recently added.

Then there's the very recent polls of +7, +9, +10, with the +10 Friday. How do we reconcile them? I suppose by the +4'ish polls ReubenSherr mentioned earlier in the thread?

I'm going to wait-out a few more polls, to make a call on this.

Waiting it out certainly can't hurt. But in light of the facts, you really do have to wonder how the gap between Biden and Trump can be as tight as it is if a larger philosophical shift to right wing authoritarianism isn't the cause. A state media mouthpiece like Fox News only goes so far in explaining it.

The rise of right wing authoritarianism is a force taking its place around the globe. There's no reason to think we're above it all.

 

[CimpleMan]

The Democrats are relying on hatred/dislike for Trump. The Republicans are relying on hatred/dislike for Democrats. Both party's reliance on hatred/dislike to motivate voters is disturbing for me.

Hoping the race to the bottom in this election will motivate the losing party to change something going forward. Dreading this election....

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[Chomsky]

Waiting it out certainly can't hurt. But in light of the facts, you really do have to wonder how the gap between Biden and Trump can be as tight as it is if a larger philosophical shift to right wing authoritarianism isn't the cause. A state media mouthpiece like Fox News only goes so far in explaining it.

The rise of right wing authoritarianism is a force taking its place around the globe. There's no reason to think we're above it all.

Well, I'm not denying that can't be it.

As to the mechanics and concerning the pandemic, I wonder if the large constant and consistent misinformation campaign may be paying off? I personally feel it's hard to believe Trump could be seen as successful in terms of the pandemic. Unless the pandemic is seen as not very important by some.

 

[Chomsky]

The Democrats are relying on hatred/dislike for Trump. The Republicans are relying on hatred/dislike for Democrats. Both party's reliance on hatred/dislike to motivate voters is disturbing for me.

Hoping the race to the bottom in this election will motivate the losing party to change something going forward. Dreading this election....

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yep. Just when we thought it couldn't get worse than 2016, we get this.

 

[MSgt]

Source: (CNN) CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high

Well! Either this poll is an outlier, or there has been a huge shift since June. The numbers speak for themselves.

I personally think it's a combination of both the race both getting tighter and possibly a Biden negative leaning poll. But it might not be. Trump has been campaigning nearly daily, via his 'pandemic update' segments. And he has finally tried to show he's addressing the pandemic. So, maybe it's working?

We'll have to see if there's confirming polls during the upcoming week.

No.

The absolute tragedy is that the "46%" who support Trump can't actually define to the majority of America why they do. All of their answers revolve around the irrational idea of why they hate "the left." Support is mostly built around a delusion of Trump, while ignoring the obvious damage, with the rest of them focusing on avoiding who they actually are.

I increasingly hate that I gave these pieces of ****s twenty years of service. They didn't deserve it. Jokes on me and the rest of us who Trump (and his loyalists) denigrates on a routine basis while traitors to the uniform suck his crank.

 

[iguanaman]

Source: (CNN) CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high

Well! Either this poll is an outlier, or there has been a huge shift since June. The numbers speak for themselves.

I personally think it's a combination of both the race both getting tighter and possibly a Biden negative leaning poll. But it might not be. Trump has been campaigning nearly daily, via his 'pandemic update' segments. And he has finally tried to show he's addressing the pandemic. So, maybe it's working?

We'll have to see if there's confirming polls during the upcoming week.

I am just happy that Biden is at 50% a number Hillary was never able to get in the 2016 polls. He's at 53% in Florida too. It's a good sign. But that does not mean we don't need every vote for Biden we can get. The bigger the win the less chance of post election trouble from Trump.

 

[Cardinal]

Well, I'm not denying that can't be it.

As to the mechanics and concerning the pandemic, I wonder if the large constant and consistent misinformation campaign may be paying off? I personally feel it's hard to believe Trump could be seen as successful in terms of the pandemic. Unless the pandemic is seen as not very important by some.

Obviously I can’t explain all of it, especially after just one poll. But I can probably explain about two to three points in the shift, which is the same song and dance we’ve been seeing nonstop for the last 3.5 years: 2-4% of trump supporters see trump commit some new atrocity or fail in some new spectacular way. After a few weeks, they make their peace with the new revelation and go back to supporting him. Back up to 44% he goes.

How many times would you say that’s played out since just the Republican Primary alone?

 

[iguanaman]

No.

The absolute tragedy is that the "46%" who support Trump can't actually define to the majority of America why they do. All of their answers revolve around the irrational idea of why they hate "the left." Support is mostly built around a delusion of Trump, while ignoring the obvious damage, with the rest of them focusing on avoiding who they actually are.

I increasingly hate that I gave these pieces of ****s twenty years of service. They didn't deserve it. Jokes on me and the rest of us who he denigrates on a routine basis while traitors to the uniform suck his crank.

Thank you for your service. I can see how Trump would upset someone who served even more than us civilians. The only thing I will say is that we will soon be rid of him. I am optimistic that he cannot win another term and always have been. He does not represent America in anyway shape or form and is nothing more than a mistake that will be rectified I swear.

 

[MSgt]

I am just happy that Biden is at 50% a number Hillary was never able to get in the 2016 polls. He's at 53% in Florida too. It's a good sign. But that does not mean we don't need every vote for Biden we can get. The bigger the win the less chance of post election trouble from Trump.

The bigger the vote for Biden is the bigger the American declaration to the world is that we are far superior to the traitorous garbage that far too many American conservatives chose to represent us since 2016.

 

[iguanaman]

The Democrats are relying on hatred/dislike for Trump. The Republicans are relying on hatred/dislike for Democrats. Both party's reliance on hatred/dislike to motivate voters is disturbing for me.

Hoping the race to the bottom in this election will motivate the losing party to change something going forward. Dreading this election....

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yes you are right we are relying on how deadly and dangerous Trump has behaved during the pandemic and his world's worst status in the covid 19 war because it is true. That is the difference in the parties. One is genuinely concerned about the physical and economic health of this country under an endless pandemic which is killing 1000 + Americans a day and the other side is living in a fantasy land where Trump is a angel from heaven sent by God to destroy the evil "pedo" empire of the Democrats. Do you see a difference there?

 

[Chomsky]

Obviously I can’t explain all of it, especially after just one poll. But I can probably explain about two to three points in the shift, which is the same song and dance we’ve been seeing nonstop for the last 3.5 years: 2-4% of trump supporters see trump commit some new atrocity or fail in some new spectacular way. After a few weeks, they make their peace with the new revelation and go back to supporting him. Back up to 44% he goes.

How many times would you say that’s played out since just the Republican Primary alone?

I do agree, and that's occurred to me as well. So what we saw was a long version of one of those periods, where the Covid re-emerged & BLM went front & center? But now we see the regression back to the mean? I think can see that.

I suppose the good news then, is while Trump reverts to 44%, Biden sits at 50% - even with this new poll. But actually, that 50% doesn't matter because CNN has him essentially tied in the battlegrounds.