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CNN finally admits the Sweden Strategy of Herd Immunity was right, but are still discouraging other countries from doing the same

Ethel2

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It would be nice if people understood what Herd Immunity really was, and what it would mean in the case of covid-19.
Yeah, I agree. Here is what it means:

Herd immunity BEGINS to help with highly infectious agents like Covid when at least 70% of the people in a population are immune. WIthout a vaccine here is the math:

Approximate population of the US: 300,000,000x.70 (70% immunity)=210,000,000x.02 (conservative mortality rate)=4,200,000 dead Americans.
Now, the more infectious the disease the higher the percentage that is required for herd immunity. For measles, which is a bit more infectious, about 90% of a population needs to be immune. Furthermore, no one knows how long lasting immunity will be with Covid (with measles, its lifelong). If people can catch Covid again in a year the whole concept of herd immunity is irrelevant.

Still think herd immunity is a great idea?
 

TU Curmudgeon

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I see the Chinese bot has the talking points uploaded properly, Too bad every single sentence in your rent is a lie.
Today, the Swedish rate for cases per million is 9,181 and the European average is 7,181.

I believe that a rate that is 127.85% of the average could well be described as "well above" the average.

Today, the Swedish rate for deaths per million is 583 and the European average is 242.

I believe that a rate that is 240.91% of the average could well be described as "well above" the average.

Maybe except for Germany having the lowest infection rates.
Today, the German rate for cases per million is 3,482 and that of Latvia (the lowest of the 12 countries that have a lower cases per million rate than Germany has) is 970.

I believe that the statement " Germany having the lowest infection rates" is "slightly" at divergence from reality.

That being said, I think that it is quite reasonable to ignore the rest of your post as being nothing but a LARGE crock of well aged bovine excrement.
 

OrphanSlug

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Yeah, I agree. Here is what it means:

Herd immunity BEGINS to help with highly infectious agents like Covid when at least 70% of the people in a population are immune. WIthout a vaccine here is the math:

Approximate population of the US: 300,000,000x.70 (70% immunity)=210,000,000x.02 (conservative mortality rate)=4,200,000 dead Americans.
Now, the more infectious the disease the higher the percentage that is required for herd immunity. For measles, which is a bit more infectious, about 90% of a population needs to be immune. Furthermore, no one knows how long lasting immunity will be with Covid (with measles, its lifelong). If people can catch Covid again in a year the whole concept of herd immunity is irrelevant.

Still think herd immunity is a great idea?
When did I suggest I was advocating for herd immunity?
 

TU Curmudgeon

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I don’t believe the numbers.
So what?

And even so 5000 is a very low cost for normal life.
OK, so what is the number of deaths in the US that you would consider to be "an appropriate cost for normal life"?

Just to help you out here are the projections based on the current trends (which also means that the assumption is that there will NOT be any change in those tends).

20-09-30 A2 - COVID vs Other Causes TABLE.JPG
It might interest you to know that (using current trends and the same assumption as above, the number of American deaths from COVID-19 in the one calendar year from the date of the first US COVID-19 death is likely to be between 305,200 and 337,326. That means that I would expect that your estimate of the number of American deaths which would constitute "an appropriate cost for normal life" would be somewhat in excess of 337,326 - so what IS your number of "acceptable deaths"?
 

TU Curmudgeon

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i don't think i've every been around a group of people that are so bad at math.

~ 600 is now > ~ 5,000.

my middle schooler is smarter than a bunch of people here.
Some people have difficulty counting past 20 without undoing a zipper.
 

TU Curmudgeon

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Yes I do believe life is sacred. However the government has no affirmative duty to protect your life at infinite expense. If it is a moral command to destroy people’s livliehoods over 5000 deaths then we must lock down every winter for the flu. Because every Individual life is sacred. Now I do believe every individual life is sacred, but the lives of a group of people collectively are not. And that is the only logical mindset if you are going to govern any kind of a successful society. Life is not free of risk. Those 5000 people did not have a nonforfeitable right to survive at all costs.
I see, so you ARE one of those for whom "The Right To Life" ends at birth.
 

TU Curmudgeon

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Anyone being honest will admit that it's genuinely too early to know which strategies will prove to have been most effective in reducing the long-term impacts of covid.

It may well take decades to truly assess and even realize these effects.
You might find

COVID-19 Diaries: The Land Down Under

It is official. COVID-19 can be beat. Australia has completely contained its second outbreak of COVID-19. Even CNN took notice.

This is a very important result. It absolutely proves that in a Western nation, with something of a similar culture to the U.S. and a strong tradition of individuality and personal freedom, COVID-19 can be stopped in its tracks. Australia accomplished this trick not just once but twice. The first time, it took about a month, the second time, it took a little less than two months. The critical success factor was strong government leadership. If the U.S. had behaved as Australia did, tens of thousands of lives would have been saved and we might now be going to the movies or sporting events on the weekends rather than wishing for a vaccine.
[From Electoral Vote]

of some slight interest.
 

Ethel2

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When did I suggest I was advocating for herd immunity?
I did not mean to imply that you were suggesting that at all. I was simply presenting what it would take to achieve herd immunity for the benefit of those who have not thought it through. There are some of them out there.
 

bluesmoke

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Yes we have a failed diversity experiment in the US.

Yes, discrimination and racism, bigotry and bias have societal, cultural, economic and personal consequences.
 

TU Curmudgeon

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Yes we have a failed diversity experiment in the US.
The US has, for decades, proudly billed itself as a "melting pot". You don't get much "diversity" in a "melting pot".
 
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