Clinton closing in on Trump... in SOUTH CAROLINA!

[humbolt]

I agree and I wouldn't even call PA a swing state now. Im from PA in the last 14 elections PA voted democrat 10 times, the republican presidents they voted for were Regan, Bush 1 and Nixon. Trump won't be getting PA.

It would be an extraordinary event if Trump took PA. I wouldn't completely rule it out, but it seems very unlikely. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh politics dominate the state. Trump might sweep places like Sinnemahoning, though.

 

[Threegoofs]

It would be an extraordinary event if Trump took PA. I wouldn't completely rule it out, but it seems very unlikely. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh politics dominate the state. Trump might sweep places like Sinnemahoning, though.

Given that Kansas is now closer than PA.... I think unlikely is a bit of an understatement.

 

[humbolt]

Given that Kansas is now closer than PA.... I think unlikely is a bit of an understatement.

The election is months off, and the electorate is volatile. Trump has as much of a chance in PA as Hillary has in SC.

 

[AGENT J]

It would be an extraordinary event if Trump took PA. I wouldn't completely rule it out, but it seems very unlikely. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh politics dominate the state. Trump might sweep places like Sinnemahoning, though.

I think it would be sad and Id bet the frame tractor and auntie em it doesnt happen.

 

[humbolt]

I think it would be sad and Id bet the frame tractor and auntie em it doesnt happen.

I used to run 30 miles a day in Sinnemahoning training for cross country. Those hills will get you in shape. Running a standard cross country course after that was like a short sprint.

 

[Threegoofs]

I think 538's model is overstating the chances of Clinton in SC in the absence of any polls. SC has been closer than other states the last few elections, but SC's voters are particularly inelastic and will almost definitely end up with somewhere between a 5-15% Trump victory.

More likely Trump would have a better chance in Montana or Missouri.

Just want to point out that we now DO have a new poll in SC.

The results are Trump holding a lead by only 2% (538 adjusts that margin to 1% based on poll bias, etc).

Thats pretty darn close.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_81116.pdf

 

[upsideguy]

PA is a swing state. The OP's post was to call attention to the fact that Trump is having trouble in a decidedly red state. SC is not a swing state.

I'm not sure why Pennsylvania is described as a swing state. PA hasn't swung in almost 30 years.

Pennsylvania has been to Republicans what Lucy and the Football has been to Charlie Brown...



It seems to be the Democrats sucker punch...convince the Republicans to waste a lot of money there, then pull the rug out and win by 5-10 points

 

[upsideguy]

I think 538's model is overstating the chances of Clinton in SC in the absence of any polls. SC has been closer than other states the last few elections, but SC's voters are particularly inelastic and will almost definitely end up with somewhere between a 5-15% Trump victory.

More likely Trump would have a better chance in Montana or Missouri.

...at 10.8%, I think 538s model is overstating Trump's chances of winning the White House...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

[Threegoofs]

I'm not sure why Pennsylvania is described as a swing state. PA hasn't swung in almost 30 years.

Pennsylvania has been to Republicans what Lucy and the Football has been to Charlie Brown...

View attachment 67205768

It seems to be the Democrats sucker punch...convince the Republicans to waste a lot of money there, then pull the rug out and win by 5-10 points

Oh... But THIS year it will be different! Believe me!