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Clinton closing in on Trump... in SOUTH CAROLINA! (1 Viewer)

Threegoofs

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I took a look at the 538 map, and was surprised to see SC not as red as usual.

Sure enough, when you look at the numbers, its about a 58% chance of going to Trump, with a 42% chance for Clinton.

Other reliably red states have percentages like 75-90% of going with Trump... but SC seems like it will be the next state to flip if things continue to go South (pun sorta intended, but makes no sense) for Trump.

I would have thought Texas (70% for Trump) or Missouri (65%) would be closer to flipping, but no... South Carolina will be the next domino to fall.

Capture.JPG
 
I took a look at the 538 map, and was surprised to see SC not as red as usual.

Sure enough, when you look at the numbers, its about a 58% chance of going to Trump, with a 42% chance for Clinton.

Other reliably red states have percentages like 75-90% of going with Trump... but SC seems like it will be the next state to flip if things continue to go South (pun sorta intended, but makes no sense) for Trump.

I would have thought Texas (70% for Trump) or Missouri (65%) would be closer to flipping, but no... South Carolina will be the next domino to fall.

View attachment 67205402

I think 538's model is overstating the chances of Clinton in SC in the absence of any polls. SC has been closer than other states the last few elections, but SC's voters are particularly inelastic and will almost definitely end up with somewhere between a 5-15% Trump victory.

More likely Trump would have a better chance in Montana or Missouri.
 
I took a look at the 538 map, and was surprised to see SC not as red as usual.

Sure enough, when you look at the numbers, its about a 58% chance of going to Trump, with a 42% chance for Clinton.

Other reliably red states have percentages like 75-90% of going with Trump... but SC seems like it will be the next state to flip if things continue to go South (pun sorta intended, but makes no sense) for Trump.

I would have thought Texas (70% for Trump) or Missouri (65%) would be closer to flipping, but no... South Carolina will be the next domino to fall.

View attachment 67205402
I'm with Anagram: Interesting to note, but not going to happen.
 
And Trump is closing on Hillary in Pennsylvania. It's a little early for polls to be meaningful. The Little Endians and the Big Endians haven't been clearly defined yet. There's a lot of smearing the evil minions have yet to accomplish. Give it some time.
 
According to RCP he is. I don't think any of it means much now. I don't think the swings are nearly as wide as have been reported lately. The difference in belief required to switch from one candidate to the other just seems a little too large for so much vacillation.

You're right there's still too much time left to be drawing conclusions, but he is down 8 in Pennsylvania in both two and four way contests on RCP averages.
 
You're right there's still too much time left to be drawing conclusions, but he is down 8 in bother two and four way contests on RCP averages.

Yeah. I think Trump is lucky he's not down more, but his supporters are loyal, anyway. He'll step in it again, and Hillary has who knows what hanging over her head. The circus we expected is the one we're getting, that's for sure. Maybe the polls are volatile because the populace is. Beats me. I've never seen anything quite like this. It's political dark comedy.
 
I think 538's model is overstating the chances of Clinton in SC in the absence of any polls. SC has been closer than other states the last few elections, but SC's voters are particularly inelastic and will almost definitely end up with somewhere between a 5-15% Trump victory.

More likely Trump would have a better chance in Montana or Missouri.

Two polls were listed in the link.


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And Trump is closing on Hillary in Pennsylvania. It's a little early for polls to be meaningful. The Little Endians and the Big Endians haven't been clearly defined yet. There's a lot of smearing the evil minions have yet to accomplish. Give it some time.

PA is a swing state. The OP's post was to call attention to the fact that Trump is having trouble in a decidedly red state. SC is not a swing state.
 
PA is a swing state. The OP's post was to call attention to the fact that Trump is having trouble in a decidedly red state. SC is not a swing state.

PA has voted democrat in every presidential election since 1992.
 
PA is a swing state. The OP's post was to call attention to the fact that Trump is having trouble in a decidedly red state. SC is not a swing state.

Not really. It may be this time, though.
 
Not really. It may be this time, though.

The swing states are agreed on. Check out the political swing state maps. There's one in Politico site. PA is a swing state for prez elections. SC is not.
 
PA has voted democrat in every presidential election since 1992.

According to Politico, PA is a swing state, now. (aka battleground states) PA was solidly in Obama's column, but after that, a tossup.

2012:

Swingstate2012-swing-state-map-300x238.jpg

2016:

swingstate2016-electoral-map-projections.jpg
 
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The swing states are agreed on. Check out the political swing state maps. There's one in Politico site. PA is a swing state for prez elections. SC is not.

I said PA could likely be a swing state. It just hasn't been swing-ish for many recent national elections.
 
I said PA could likely be a swing state. It just hasn't been swing-ish for many recent national elections.

It isn't determined, I think, by HOW it ultimately votes. What matters is the degree of tossup BEFORE the election, so that it COULD go either way. The fact that one party eeks out a win ultimately isn't determinative, I think.
 
According to RCP he is. I don't think any of it means much now. I don't think the swings are nearly as wide as have been reported lately. The difference in belief required to switch from one candidate to the other just seems a little too large for so much vacillation.

RCP's latest polls have Clinton up by (in reverse chronological order) 13, 11, 9 and 3 in PA
RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election 2016 State Polls
 
It isn't determined, I think, by HOW it ultimately votes. What matters is the degree of tossup BEFORE the election, so that it COULD go either way. The fact that one party eeks out a win ultimately isn't determinative, I think.

Well, here are the latest PA polls.

I guess if you're delusional or dont understand the meaning of 'swing', you could consider these numbers as swing state numbers...

PA.jpg

And over at 538, they show Clinton with a 86.2% chance of winning the state.
 
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Well, here are the latest PA polls.

I guess if you're delusional or dont understand the meaning of 'swing', you could consider these numbers as swing state numbers...

View attachment 67205465

And over at 538, they show Clinton with a 86.2% chance of winning the state.

Swing states are usually talked about relative to the nation at large though. She's up that high in Pennsylvania, but only a tiny bit more than her national margin. If Trump were to do something so catastrophically stupid that Hillary were to win Tennessee for instance, I don't think people would suddenly start considering Tennessee a swing state even though it swung in this election.
 
According to Politico, PA is a swing state, now. (aka battleground states) PA was solidly in Obama's column, but after that, a tossup.

2012:

View attachment 67205459

2016:

View attachment 67205460

As I mentioned, since 1992 Pennsylvania has voted democrat in presidential elections. It's entrance into the swing state club is relatively recent. I'm willing to bet that neither of us need Politico to figure that out, but I understand the need to support one's arguments, so have at it. I feel pretty safe in saying that Clinton will not take SC. If she wins SC, I'll fall on my sword and buy a really, really good bottle of whiskey. Of course I'll drink it too, but you can count on my reporting regarding it's quality. I'll also do the same if she loses. I believe in fair treatment no matter what.
 
RCP's latest polls have Clinton up by (in reverse chronological order) 13, 11, 9 and 3 in PA
RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election 2016 State Polls

Yep. You're right. Like me, my information is old now. I should admit now that I am not paying attention to politics much of late. I can step in fresh horse turds and not get nearly as disgusted as I can reading or watching politics. Besides, the horse poop thing is inadvertent. With the political scene of late, it's important to realize that you're intentionally observing.
 
As I mentioned, since 1992 Pennsylvania has voted democrat in presidential elections. It's entrance into the swing state club is relatively recent. I'm willing to bet that neither of us need Politico to figure that out, but I understand the need to support one's arguments, so have at it. I feel pretty safe in saying that Clinton will not take SC. If she wins SC, I'll fall on my sword and buy a really, really good bottle of whiskey. Of course I'll drink it too, but you can count on my reporting regarding it's quality. I'll also do the same if she loses. I believe in fair treatment no matter what.

I agree and I wouldn't even call PA a swing state now. Im from PA in the last 14 elections PA voted democrat 10 times, the republican presidents they voted for were Regan, Bush 1 and Nixon. Trump won't be getting PA.
 

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