livefree
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Predictions....
Are the predictions of climate scientists coming true?
Here's some predictions they made some years ago. Compare them to what is currently happening.
Meteorologists See Future of Increasingly Extreme Weather Events
Harder Rain, More Snow
(excerpt)
February 1, 2006 — While raising average global temperatures, climate change could also bring more snow, harder rain, or heat waves, meteorologists say. Computer models based on climate data from nine countries indicate every place on the planet will be hit with extreme weather events, including coastal storms and floods.
Global Warming Will Bring Violent Storms And Tornadoes, NASA Predicts
(excerpts)
ScienceDaily (Aug. 31, 2007) — NASA scientists have developed a new climate model that indicates that the most violent severe storms and tornadoes may become more common as Earth's climate warms. Previous climate model studies have shown that heavy rainstorms will be more common in a warmer climate, but few global models have attempted to simulate the strength of updrafts in these storms. The model developed at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies is the first to successfully simulate the observed difference in strength between land and ocean storms and is the first to estimate how the strength will change in a warming climate, including "severe thunderstorms" that also occur with significant wind shear and produce damaging winds at the ground.
The central and eastern areas of the United States are especially prone to severe storms and thunderstorms that arise when strong updrafts combine with horizontal winds that become stronger at higher altitudes. This combination produces damaging horizontal and vertical winds and is a major source of weather-related casualties. In the warmer climate simulation there is a small class of the most extreme storms with both strong updrafts and strong horizontal winds at higher levels that occur more often, and thus the model suggests that the most violent severe storms and tornadoes may become more common with warming.
There's the predictions....here's what actually happened...
2010 Produced Record Rainfall, and It Keeps Coming
University of California at Santa Barbara - Department of Geography
January 25, 2011
(excerpts)
Asia was literally swamped by last year’s monsoonal flooding, with Pakistan being hardest hit – over one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area ended up underwater, about 2,000 people were killed, and the floods directly affected about 20 million people. Torrential summer rains killed over 800 people and displaced millions in China. In May 2010, Poland's Prime Minister described the country’s flooding as “the worst natural disaster in the nation's history.” Ongoing floods that have ravaged Australia's northeast and swamped a major city in recent months could be the country's most expensive natural disaster ever. Brazil’s flash floods and mudslides in recent weeks have claimed over 800 lives and are considered the deadliest natural disaster in the country’s history. Torrential rain since December has triggered major flooding in the Philippines, leaving over 70 people dead, 453,000 displaced, and 1.2 million people affected. The rain in Sri Lanka in recent weeks has been the heaviest in nearly 100 years of record keeping, and the resulting flooding has left over 50 dead, over 3 million affected, and thousands in refugee camps. And the list goes on, as does the flooding.
...A 4% increase in atmospheric moisture may not sound like much, but it turns out that precipitation will increase by about 8% with that 4% moisture increase. Critically, it is the extreme rainfall events that tend to supply the increased rainfall. For example, (Groisman et al., 2004) found a 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century, and a 36% rise in cold season (October - April) "extreme" precipitation events (those in the 99.9% percentile--1 in 1000 events. These extreme rainfall events are the ones most likely to cause floods” (source).
State of the Climate - Tornadoes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Climatic Data Center
April 2011
(excerpt)
April 2011 was one of the most active, destructive, and deadly tornado months on record for the United States, and could become the benchmark that future months will be compared to. According to data from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), there were 875 preliminary tornado reports during the month, and the final tornado count will approach the all-time monthly record of 542 tornadoes after all storm surveys are completed. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974, and the record for any month was May 2003, when there were 542 confirmed tornadoes. The 30-year average for number of April tornadoes is 135.
Pre-Summer roast: Record high temperatures sizzle cities across the globe
June 4, 2011
(excerpt)
HOUSTON, Tx - Can you have a summer heat wave before summer even starts? Apparently so. It looks like Thursday’s record-breaking 100-degree heat was no anomaly (though Houston got a slight “cool down” with a high of 96 Friday). Temperatures are forecast to hit a sweltering 99 degrees today and Sunday, more than two weeks before summer officially kicks off. In fact, we may be in for the hottest June on record. Accuweather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski projects the Houston area will average around 3 degrees above normal for the summer. In Jackson, Mississippi, the temperature reached 101 degrees Thursday afternoon, breaking the previous record of 99 degrees set back on June 2, 1911. Record highs were also reported in Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, Texas, Virginia and Georgia. Kuwait hit a record high of 51 C. Liverpool England also saw temperatures soar. Carlow, Ireland recorded the highest temperatures so far this year when the mercury hit 25.4C.
Are the predictions of climate scientists coming true?
Here's some predictions they made some years ago. Compare them to what is currently happening.
Meteorologists See Future of Increasingly Extreme Weather Events
Harder Rain, More Snow
(excerpt)
February 1, 2006 — While raising average global temperatures, climate change could also bring more snow, harder rain, or heat waves, meteorologists say. Computer models based on climate data from nine countries indicate every place on the planet will be hit with extreme weather events, including coastal storms and floods.
Global Warming Will Bring Violent Storms And Tornadoes, NASA Predicts
(excerpts)
ScienceDaily (Aug. 31, 2007) — NASA scientists have developed a new climate model that indicates that the most violent severe storms and tornadoes may become more common as Earth's climate warms. Previous climate model studies have shown that heavy rainstorms will be more common in a warmer climate, but few global models have attempted to simulate the strength of updrafts in these storms. The model developed at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies is the first to successfully simulate the observed difference in strength between land and ocean storms and is the first to estimate how the strength will change in a warming climate, including "severe thunderstorms" that also occur with significant wind shear and produce damaging winds at the ground.
The central and eastern areas of the United States are especially prone to severe storms and thunderstorms that arise when strong updrafts combine with horizontal winds that become stronger at higher altitudes. This combination produces damaging horizontal and vertical winds and is a major source of weather-related casualties. In the warmer climate simulation there is a small class of the most extreme storms with both strong updrafts and strong horizontal winds at higher levels that occur more often, and thus the model suggests that the most violent severe storms and tornadoes may become more common with warming.
There's the predictions....here's what actually happened...
2010 Produced Record Rainfall, and It Keeps Coming
University of California at Santa Barbara - Department of Geography
January 25, 2011
(excerpts)
Asia was literally swamped by last year’s monsoonal flooding, with Pakistan being hardest hit – over one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area ended up underwater, about 2,000 people were killed, and the floods directly affected about 20 million people. Torrential summer rains killed over 800 people and displaced millions in China. In May 2010, Poland's Prime Minister described the country’s flooding as “the worst natural disaster in the nation's history.” Ongoing floods that have ravaged Australia's northeast and swamped a major city in recent months could be the country's most expensive natural disaster ever. Brazil’s flash floods and mudslides in recent weeks have claimed over 800 lives and are considered the deadliest natural disaster in the country’s history. Torrential rain since December has triggered major flooding in the Philippines, leaving over 70 people dead, 453,000 displaced, and 1.2 million people affected. The rain in Sri Lanka in recent weeks has been the heaviest in nearly 100 years of record keeping, and the resulting flooding has left over 50 dead, over 3 million affected, and thousands in refugee camps. And the list goes on, as does the flooding.
...A 4% increase in atmospheric moisture may not sound like much, but it turns out that precipitation will increase by about 8% with that 4% moisture increase. Critically, it is the extreme rainfall events that tend to supply the increased rainfall. For example, (Groisman et al., 2004) found a 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century, and a 36% rise in cold season (October - April) "extreme" precipitation events (those in the 99.9% percentile--1 in 1000 events. These extreme rainfall events are the ones most likely to cause floods” (source).
State of the Climate - Tornadoes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Climatic Data Center
April 2011
(excerpt)
April 2011 was one of the most active, destructive, and deadly tornado months on record for the United States, and could become the benchmark that future months will be compared to. According to data from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), there were 875 preliminary tornado reports during the month, and the final tornado count will approach the all-time monthly record of 542 tornadoes after all storm surveys are completed. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974, and the record for any month was May 2003, when there were 542 confirmed tornadoes. The 30-year average for number of April tornadoes is 135.
Pre-Summer roast: Record high temperatures sizzle cities across the globe
June 4, 2011
(excerpt)
HOUSTON, Tx - Can you have a summer heat wave before summer even starts? Apparently so. It looks like Thursday’s record-breaking 100-degree heat was no anomaly (though Houston got a slight “cool down” with a high of 96 Friday). Temperatures are forecast to hit a sweltering 99 degrees today and Sunday, more than two weeks before summer officially kicks off. In fact, we may be in for the hottest June on record. Accuweather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski projects the Houston area will average around 3 degrees above normal for the summer. In Jackson, Mississippi, the temperature reached 101 degrees Thursday afternoon, breaking the previous record of 99 degrees set back on June 2, 1911. Record highs were also reported in Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, Texas, Virginia and Georgia. Kuwait hit a record high of 51 C. Liverpool England also saw temperatures soar. Carlow, Ireland recorded the highest temperatures so far this year when the mercury hit 25.4C.