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Climate change is increasing the chances of a California 'megaflood,' experts warn - More fear porn

J

JBG

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This article, Climate change is increasing the chances of a California 'megaflood,' experts warn (link, article posted on NBC website, should be free), and a breathless, banner New York Times headline on, I think, Saturday, The Coming California Megastorm (link, may be paywalled), are drafted in full panic mode. An excerpt from the New York Times article (excerpts amount to approximately 5% of the article and should not present a copyright issue):
This "torpedo of moisture", until now, has been called "El Niño" and was identified by Spanish fisher-people off the coast of Peru. This is explained by the Royal Meteorological Society (link, excerpt below):
The NBC article concedes that this has historical precedent:
Notwithstanding, the articles make panicky predictions of the future:
The articles concede that this has happened before. There is no proof, other than blind panic, that human activity has much if any role here. Except, of course, that millions of people live there, unlike 1861-2, when the population was sparse. Just as significantly, nowhere does the research support a premise that an increase in government strangulation of the economy will prevent these nightmare scenarios. Perhaps millions of people should not be living in such fragile areas?
 
Did you read the accounts of the great flood in CA of 1861-2? They rebuilt and raised Sacramento 10 feet. 4000 people died when there wasnt even close to today's population living in that area.

Why couldnt it happen again, if similar conditions are developing?
 
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Remember all the MEGA PORN about the hurricane in the gulf, and what it could do to New Orleans? Remember the MEGA PORN about the huge earthquake and Tsunami that could hit Japan? Remember the MAGA PORN about a Pandemic?

I'd say you should maybe listen because it's proved to be more than PORN, more than several scientific predictions have already come to fruition.

My advice only, but you might want to check back on all the PORN that's come to be.....
 
JBG said:
Perhaps millions of people should not be living in such fragile areas?
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So we should abandon the region that produces 1/4 of our food? That's a huge influence on our economy...you think we should abandon it? And we export it as well...that would be more economic loss.

When instead, we should be trying to preserve viable land, resources, jobs, and lives?
 
How do we know that shutting down the economy will have such salubrious results?
 
JBG said:
How do we know that shutting down the economy will have such salubrious results?
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Address my posts directly and answer my questions before asking me questions please.
 
My first thought was what we dubbed "The Columbus Day Storm" (Typhoon Freda) in 1962. It was pretty violent where I lived.

You know, I remember incidents like that... 60 years ago, and just laugh my ass off when people claim our activities are causing them.





Columbus Day storm of 1962 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org
 
Lursa said:
Address my posts directly and answer my questions before asking me questions please.
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I don't take orders from anonymous discussion board posters. Taking this as a more polite request, I will state that I do not believe we should "abandon" any part of the country. I agree "we should be trying to preserve viable land, resources, jobs, and lives." I answered the way I did because I see no connection between the proposed remedy and the problem. It's sort of like saying that everyone should vaccinate for polio (which they should and is rebounding in my area) in order to halt the spread of diphtheria.
 

"Orders" dont come with a "please." Your silly self-righteous outrage is just you hiding behind the fact that you cannot "make" that "connection" and if that's the case, you arent prepared for a discussion on the subject.

JBG said:
It's sort of like saying that everyone should vaccinate for polio (which they should and is rebounding in my area) in order to halt the spread of diphtheria.
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No, it's not. Again, from your posts, you are not prepared for an informed discussion on this subject.
 
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Is that the best you can do?
 
JBG said:
Is that the best you can do?
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Do you have any capacity to actually discuss your OP topic or not? I dont care about you...the discussion isnt about you.

Thus far you have demonstrated no real understanding of your own OP. Can you do so?
 
Lursa said:
Do you have any capacity to actually discuss your OP topic or not? I dont care about you...the discussion isnt about you.

Thus far you have demonstrated no real understanding of your own OP. Can you do so?
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My point in the OP was primary that mega-flood events are moderately common in history, and trace back to events that Spanish fisherman identified in the 1500's or 1600's. Some "mega-flood" events apparently happened in the winter of 1861-2. I personally remember news coverage of them in winter 1968-9 and, if I'm not mistaken, 1982-3. For whatever reason some intense El Niños did not have this result, including 2015-6. El Niños differ on where their warmest water occurs, and there are other atmospheric interactions.

My point is that these devastating events occur regardless of human intervention. Nothing that Abe Lincoln could have done would have avoided the result of "abandon(ing) the region that produces 1/4 of our food." Or for that matter his predecessors starting with James Buchanan and going back to George Washington. I suppose we could have shown concern in some way. Maybe mandated mask-wearing?

I don't t hing the IPPC could have helped much. See their report and its suggestions. Climate Change 2022. I'll admit to not reading much of it. A brief quote from their "recommendation" (link): "With adaptation finance needs estimated to be higher than those presented in AR5, enhanced mobilization of and access to financial resources are essential for implementation of adaptation and to reduce adaptation gaps (high confidence). Translation to commonly understood English: "We want more mah-nee."
 
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@_@ Wow. So you recognized that the signs and conditions point to another of these devastating floods, in an area now housing millions, plus a major agricultural area for the nation...something that drives the economy of the state and nation...and you choose to frame it as hysteria? "Fear porn?"

Instead of experts informing and preparing to address the dangers and try to reduce the damage and losses?

How irresponsible! Spreading 'rumors!'
 
That the area has a long history of bad periodic flooding, and they allowed millions to place housing, says something about poor planning.
 
longview said:
That the area has a long history of bad periodic flooding, and they allowed millions to place housing, says something about poor planning.
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Agreed. Same can be said for New Orleans, for the entire Mississippi Valley. Alot of it is congregation around the best agricultural land...which is richer because of the flooding.
 
Lursa said:
Agreed. Same can be said for New Orleans, for the entire Mississippi Valley. Alot of it is congregation around the best agricultural land...which is richer because of the flooding.
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I think the difference is that in places where it floods every few years they have levies, that I suspect are missing in the Central Valley of California.
 
longview said:
I think the difference is that in places where it floods every few years they have levies, that I suspect are missing in the Central Valley of California.
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Yes but even those areas refer to regular "100 yr" floods...that the levees cant hold back...and tend to happen more frequently than 100 yrs.

From the descriptions of the environmental conditions, in CA it's not something that levees can retain. It's about hard, often denuded ground (vegetation gone because of drought or fire), that wont retain water. It's about washes and drainages that become overwhelmed. There's many reasons.
 
During the dust bowl the CCC built millions of ponds in the great American desert.
 
Lursa said:
Yes but even those areas refer to regular "100 yr" floods...that the levees cant hold back...and tend to happen more frequently than 100 yrs.
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How many centuries have we witnessed them to be ably to claim their cyclical rate is 100 years? It's not an accurate description you know. Just a guess.

Please do tell...
Plus, land use changes, modifying the natural hydrological cycle.
 
Lursa said:
Where would that water come from now?
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This thread is about a flood! Droughts and floods run in cycles, the ponds help take off the peaks and valleys of the cycles!
 
Lord of Planar said:
How many centuries have we witnessed them to be ably to claim their cyclical rate is 100 years? It's not an accurate description you know. Just a guess.

Please do tell...
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Agreed. It's more a figure of speech. I didnt invent it.

Lord of Planar said:
Plus, land use changes, modifying the natural hydrological cycle.
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Yes...that's the other side of the coin here, discussing climate change and human impact
 
longview said:
This thread is about a flood! Droughts and floods run in cycles, the ponds help take off the peaks and valleys of the cycles!
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So they're holding ponds?

They are common here, in every neighborhood. They werent artificially filled, they're catchments for run off.
 
Lursa said:
So they're holding ponds?

They are common here, in every neighborhood. They werent artificially filled, they're catchments for run off.
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Well that is what they are called now, but they were just farm ponds in the 1930’s.
 
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