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China's Trade Talks Overtures

anatta

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Original article by WSJ on China offering fentanly concessions to start trade talks


Beijing is considering a Fentanyl offer to the US and potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. Kailey Leinz reports on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)
~~~

China's Commerce Ministry says it is evaluating the possibility of trade talks with the US, following senior US officials' expressions of willingness to talk about tariffs.They urge the US to show "sincerity" towards China, and Beijing has quietly started exempting around $40 billion worth of US goods from tariffs, in an apparent effort to soften the blow of the trade war.Despite hurdles, the economic fallout from the confrontation may be giving new momentum to efforts to bring both sides to the negotiating table,
with some experts predicting the start of negotiations within a few weeks. Bloomberg's Enda Curran reports. (Source: Bloomberg)
 
Translation: China may consider picking up the phone if Donald calls, but they haven’t and don’t plan to initiate contact. They have been crystal clear about this.
 
phoenix2020 said:
Translation: China may consider picking up the phone if Donald calls, but they haven’t and don’t plan to initiate contact. They have been crystal clear about this.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I read "following senior US officials' expressions of willingness to talk about tariffs."
 
anatta said:
Beijing has quietly started exempting around $40 billion worth of US goods from tariffs, in an apparent effort to soften the blow of the trade war.
Click to expand...
China is apparently responding to DJT's tariff exemption on imported Chinese electronics.
Trump's tariff threats will continue to dissipate and China will respond in kind.
 
We are at an interesting point in the China 'negotiations'. China was already economically vulnerable due to it's own internal economic issues, and now they are already feeling the added heat from Trumps tariffs shutting down jobs there. On the other hand, lots of pre tariff stockpiling means that the US is still a few weeks away from the true impact of the China tariffs seriously impacting consumers. Whilst Trump can't now stop most of that impact hitting, he could minimise it by striking a quick deal with China. The question now is really about how much pressure the CCP and Xi are really under. You can bet that they will want to just ride this out and divorce themselves as much as possible from the US, but it is looking questionable now whether they really have that option without major internal unrest.

I don't read much into China lifting tariffs on $40B of essential goods. That is probably just a pragmatic, common sense move. Don't punish your own economy with tariffs on things that you still have to buy from the US until you can find alternative sources. Doesn't mean that you aren't going to keep looking for those alternative sources, and in a China world that just means a word in your ear from the CCP saying that whilst the tariffs are lifted for now, you better not still be buying from the US in a year from now unless we want you to. Putting tariffs on stuff that you have to buy from US/China (for now) is just harming consumers and hurting your own economy. China has been steadily decreasing it's reliance on exports to the US since Trumps first term, and will surely continue to do so after these tariff discussion play out.

On the other side of this the US farming sector is taking a considerable hammering from China shifting it's agricultural imports to alternative countries. There is little in that sector that China can't source from elsewhere, and they are actively doing so. That puts real pressure on the GOP as losing these Chinese markets can easily be permanent as other countries lift their production to supply the new demand from China. Losing the faith of the rural sector could be disastrous for the GOP who rely on that significantly to keep control of the Senate. The other point about China sourcing it's agricultural imports from other countries is that it is a significant bargaining chip for them to get access to these other markets for their own exports. Most nations put high value on their own farming sectors for food security reasons, so gaining access to large new export markets is highly prized. It not only makes their own farming more sustainable, but feeds more money into the large supply chains that are associated with farming.

Going to be interesting to see how this all plays out. If China stalls any agreement for another month or so, it will be Trump who starts to seriously squirm I expect.
 
Breitbart news reports, the United States appears to be ratcheting up the pressure. The U.S. ended tariff exemptions on Friday for goods shipped from China worth less than $800, a move which could have significant ramifications on consumers’ purchasing habits.


There’s a lot of posturing going on, said one academic observer. Ja-Ian Chong of the National University of Singapore said it remained unclear whether any progress can be made, despite the mounting economic need for both sides to make a deal.
“Neither side wishes to look weak,” he said.
 

The start of negotiations? Negotiations have not even started yet? And it is not expected to begin until a few more weeks have passed an after most Chinese-produced inventory has been sold off?
 
Felis Leo said:
The start of negotiations? Negotiations have not even started yet? And it is not expected to begin until a few more weeks have passed an after most Chinese-produced inventory has been sold off?
Click to expand...
what do you think has been happening? China has been calling tariffs coercion and refused to negotiate.
Now the tone has shifted to trade ( not just tariff) talks. Lots of posturing , but key movement on goods by China and USA just started to tariff lower costs goods (post 7)

Compare to a couple days ago
Beijing has vowed to fight a trade war to the bitter end if needed, with a video posted on social media this week by its foreign ministry vowing to “never kneel down!”
Click to expand...
 

I half-expect Donald Trump to end most tariffs in the next three to six months. Then, when our economy recovers after shortages are straightened out over the next year, he will take credit for improving the economy after having destroyed it. And he will then say he ended the Biden Tariffs.
 
Felis Leo said:
I half-expect Donald Trump to end most tariffs in the next three to six months.
Click to expand...
I do, too.

When that happens, that'll mean that Trump, the EU, other countries and the Chinese have come to an agreements each can live with.

In other words...he will have succeeded.
 
It is very clear from the reporting that America has been doing the calling and China is willing to talk...however, not until Trump moves 9n the tariffs. I expect things will move in the next few weeks but not until Trump moves on his stupid tariffs.

As for the removal of some tariffs, that happened a while ago. It was meant to help certain critical sectors. America did the same thing with semi conductors etc.
 
I think the negotiations with China will take a LONG time (many months) with a lot of little steps along the way - from both sides. I expect some of the incremental steps from one or both sides will ease pressures and other steps from one or both sides will increase pressures. It's going to be very interesting to watch it play out.

Here on DP, where it seems like there is a need for hourly or daily proclaiming of some final conclusion narrative - when, in actuality, the process is still at step 1, 5, 10, or 50 out of 100, I think there will be endless comments about caving, who initiated each and every call, and that all that tiny unimportant stuff clearly means someone "won" or "lost".

All these trade deals and most especially the one with China will take lots of conversation, negotiation, incremental steps, and shifts and changes (like Trump describes as going over, under or around roadblocks/obstacles).

The one thing I think is now completely obvious - Trump and his team's motivation, determination, time, and concerted efforts to fix/change the U.S. trade balances and relationships with much of the world.
 
.......as opposed to the daily parroting of all the pending deals, phone ringing off the hook, leaders lined up to talk to him at the Pope's funeral. As if that is somehow different.
 
China has to move as well. Tariffs on less then $800 dollars are going to shrink their exports. Yes it's not a quick process though.
But it has started - the point of this thread- after a couple of days ago there was just bluster
 
anatta said:
China has to move as well. Tariffs on less then $800 dollars are going to shrink their exports. Yes it's not a quick process though.
But it has started - the point of this thread- after a couple of days ago there was just bluster
Click to expand...
I totally agree.
 
anatta said:
Beijing is considering a Fentanyl offer to the US and potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. Kailey Leinz reports on Bloomberg Television.
Click to expand...
And this is a good start to progress. Trump talks very often about his huge concerns with the Fentanyl issue and China!!!
 
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