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China won't be the next superpower, India will


DP Veteran
May 6, 2016
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Political Leaning
There are many people who believe that China will be our next superpower; that the chinese yuan will be the next world currency. However, there are several things which may keep that from happening.

1.china is surrounded by nations which it has rivalries with. It also has no other close allies than pakistan and mayyyyybe north korea? That's why it's building artificial islands on the south china sea, to assert its dominance over east asia

2. their economy is so dependent on exports that if other nations get better stuff than china, the country will go into a recession

3. the government is problematic. Corruption is high, freedom of religion is restricted, and the economy is mostly controlled by the government

And the most important reason why is because of their economy. Their gdp growth has stopped increasing. Don't get me wrong, it's still more than twice as high as america's but it was only like 6.9% compared to 7.4% in 2014 and 7.7% in 2013. At this rate, it will still surpass the US by 2025 but it will likely get as low as america's growth in 20 years. You know how the economy is controlled by the government? Well now, the people got more freedom and didn't understand economics because of how long the government regulated prices and they treated the stock market like a horsetrack race to bet on. This has created an economic bubble; the gdp growth is going down as the bubble is getting bigger. By 2035, china's working age population will have dwindled quite a bit, the gdp growth will be much slower, and the bubble will likely pop. The horrible financial situation will cause unrest, the people's republic of china will collapse giving way for taiwan, and tibet will be independent. This may sound far fetched but it's exactly what happened to the soviet union abeit more slowly. In 2040, china will be the detroit of asia.

India is one of the poorest countries in the world so how will it become superpower? Well, china was in that same exact spot in the 70s that india is now. In the 80s, living standards in china rose because china relaxed its socialism and opened up trade. India is also beginning to increase its living standards as its gdp growth for 2015 was 7.3%. Like china, india has a large working age population. All of the issues which india is facing were the same issues which china faced back in the 70s and 80s (many are still around but are much weaker). In the 30s when the PRC is replaced by the republic of china, india will undergo a skyscraper boom and we will se much more "made in india" than "made in china". In addition to all of the things which made china great, india is surrounded by countries whom it can form an alliance with, the economy will be more free market, and although corruption will always exist, india is a democracy; the most stable countries are democracies.
In 2050, mumbai is predicted to be the world's most populous city at 42 million (delhi being in 2nd place) with tokyo, the current recordholder, at 32 million. The india government is sponsoring a project known as the Delhi-Mumbai indistrial corridor. The project will include 24 industrial regions, eight smart cities, two airports, five power projects, two mass rapid transit systems and two logistical hubs. Japan sees potential and is investing in the project. If india can avoid nuclear war with pakistan and solve its religious tensions, the future will belong to india.
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