China imports zero U.S. soybeans in November for first time since trade war started

[Cardinal]

So Trump has single-handedly crippled the entire American soybean market. As I said in another thread, isolationism only works if everybody else is also isolationist.

China was the largest buyer of American soybeans, and since China has new suppliers now they're not coming back.

BEIJING — China's soybean imports from the United States plunged to zero in November, marking the first time since the trade war between the world's two largest economies started that China, the world's largest soybean buyer, has imported no U.S. supplies.

Instead, China has leaned on Brazilian imports to replace the U.S. cargoes, customs data showed on Monday.

China brought in 5.07 million metric tons of soybeans from Brazil in November, up more than 80 percent from 2.76 million metric tons a year ago, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Meanwhile, U.S. imports plunged from 4.7 million metric tons in November 2017 and were down from 67,000 metric tons in October.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...-first-time-trade-n951556?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

They can switch to corn and get paid for not planting it

 

[digsbe]

Great, we must de-couple from the Chinese economy and begin a cold war to destabilize and destroy their nation from within. The communist government in China will start WW3 if left unchecked and are our modern day "Nazis."

I know this is just another partisan "let's hate Trump" hit piece, but if you want to bash him over soybeans maybe praise him since China is now importing some American rice? You know, in all fairness... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ce-imports-ahead-of-trade-talks-idUSKCN1OR0LB

 

[Infinite Chaos]

I believe Brazilian soybeans are better quality and have a higher protein content anyway - and China is possibly going to import more US gas and rice? (Not in huge quantities yet)

 

[Cardinal]

Great, we must de-couple from the Chinese economy and begin a cold war to destabilize and destroy their nation from within. The communist government in China will start WW3 if left unchecked and are our modern day "Nazis."

I know this is just another partisan "let's hate Trump" hit piece, but if you want to bash him over soybeans maybe praise him since China is now importing some American rice? You know, in all fairness... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ce-imports-ahead-of-trade-talks-idUSKCN1OR0LB

Um...decoupling is precisely what leads to an increase in the possibility of war since we'll have no intertwined markets to discourage a war.

 

[Mycroft]

So Trump has single-handedly crippled the entire American soybean market. As I said in another thread, isolationism only works if everybody else is also isolationist.

China was the largest buyer of American soybeans, and since China has new suppliers now they're not coming back.



https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...-first-time-trade-n951556?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

Beijing resumed buying U.S. cargoes earlier this month, after the two countries agreed on Dec. 1 to a truce in their trade war. But, the hefty tariffs on U.S. cargoes remain in place.

That's the problem with cherry-picked snapshots. Things change.

But, of course, you like cherry-picking, don't you? When it supports your agenda, anyway. When it doesn't, you'll break out your broad brush.

 

[digsbe]

Um...decoupling is precisely what leads to an increase in the possibility of war since we'll have no intertwined markets to discourage a war.

The Chinese economy is a debt fueled ponzi scheme, if anything we must decouple to protect ourselves when they face their inevitable crash/recession.

Empowering China and contributing to GDP growth there further empowers them which leads to an enhanced military, growing global influence, and a strengthening global threat to world peace. Would you purchase something or try to enhance the economy of Nazi Germany back in the 40's? The world must no longer be silent and capitulate on China. Their government is evil and is devoid of any kind of benevolent intentions.

 

[Jetboogieman]

Um...decoupling is precisely what leads to an increase in the possibility of war since we'll have no intertwined markets to discourage a war.

It would be pretty hard for the US to pull it off anyway, if Chinas Belt and Road initiative works, it'll be virtually impossible for the US to count on it's Traditional Allies to follow its lead, which it would really need to really hurt Beijing again, if Belt and Road yields the kind of results Beijing wants and since Trump tore up the only economic counterweight to the Belt and Road, the TPP, well... This is what happens when you have a child play the Geo-Political game.

 

[Cardinal]

The Chinese economy is a debt fueled ponzi scheme, if anything we must decouple to protect ourselves when they face their inevitable crash/recession.

Empowering China and contributing to GDP growth there further empowers them which leads to an enhanced military, growing global influence, and a strengthening global threat to world peace. Would you purchase something or try to enhance the economy of Nazi Germany back in the 40's? The world must no longer be silent and capitulate on China. Their government is evil and is devoid of any kind of benevolent intentions.

Your point is moot because it's a global economy and as the case with Soybeans demonstrates, they'll just get their supplies elsewhere. So now they have their soybeans and we don't have 12 billion dollars of their soybean money. If that's a check in the "win" column for you, then...okay, I guess.

 

[digsbe]

Your point is moot because it's a global economy and as the case with Soybeans demonstrates, they'll just get their supplies elsewhere. So now they have their soybeans and we don't have their soybean money. If that's a check in the "win" column for you, then...okay, I guess.

Are you going to actually respond to any of the arguments I've made at all? I think you are failing to understand that this is largely a national security issue as well.

 

[Lovebug]

Um...decoupling is precisely what leads to an increase in the possibility of war since we'll have no intertwined markets to discourage a war.

So what is the solution? Let unfair trade run amok? What is the end game here? Being at China's mercy? It seems we are almost there already.

 

[Lovebug]

Great, we must de-couple from the Chinese economy and begin a cold war to destabilize and destroy their nation from within. The communist government in China will start WW3 if left unchecked and are our modern day "Nazis."

I know this is just another partisan "let's hate Trump" hit piece, but if you want to bash him over soybeans maybe praise him since China is now importing some American rice? You know, in all fairness... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ce-imports-ahead-of-trade-talks-idUSKCN1OR0LB

Thanks for posting about the rice import.

 

[Cardinal]

Are you going to actually respond to any of the arguments I've made at all?

What argument? That decoupling prevents us from strengthening China? We now have one microcosm of decoupling that did nothing to weaken them and just robbed us of $12 billion instead. If you saw this story as a demonstration of something that disempowers China, then you really picked an odd case to go with.

 

[Cardinal]

Thanks for posting about the rice import.

It's a very odd victory for him to post seeing as he just expressed a desire for decoupling. It does, in fact, completely contradict his position in this thread. Methinks Digsbe hasn't entirely thought through his position on this topic.

The increased rice trade story does nothing to improve the crippling of the American soybean market, and it really just continues to demonstrate how important trade with China is.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

So what is the solution? Let unfair trade run amok? What is the end game here? Being at China's mercy? It seems we are almost there already.

The USA is almost 100% dependent upon Chinese manufacturing, and in the end, it doesn't matter if China endures pain by decoupling from us, because in the end, China operates a command state economy, which means that their leadership won't think twice about forcing the Chinese people, even the wealthy elites, to make large sacrifices. That's what happens in a society like China's, it's what they do.
The Chinese are still communists and they're still a dictatorship, therefore they love the notion of a communist "five year plan".

And if that plan amounts to strategies designed to cripple America's economy to teach America a lesson, then that is what they will do, and the first place they will start IS our Chinese manufacturing. And they don't have to just cut it off instantaneously either. They could gradually slow it all down, or they could "accidentally on purpose" find that there are "glitches" in the system that "caused them to hold or delay shipment" on various items which are critical to our economy...oopsie.

People keep saying that China could not survive such a hit to their economy. Nonsense. China could survive even if all 1.5 billion of them had to go back to one bicycle, one bowl of rice, one kid, one pair of black silk pajamas and a hat. They'd only have to do it for a couple of years to crush our economy and leave them as the economic superpower.

And remember, if they do it using the "soft approach", then our own corporate hierarchy would respond with that uniquely American crutch used to explain just about anything they don't want to take responsibility for: "UNCERTAINTY"

Uncertainty...investors would be feeling too much uncertainty to want to rebuild our own manufacturing, and they would feel too much uncertainty about being able to manufacture at a cost comparable to Chinese imports. Uncertainty, it works as a justification for US manufacturing to just sit still with its thumb up its keister.

 

[Jetboogieman]

The USA is almost 100% dependent upon Chinese manufacturing, and in the end, it doesn't matter if China endures pain by decoupling from us, because in the end, China operates a command state economy, which means that their leadership won't think twice about forcing the Chinese people, even the wealthy elites, to make large sacrifices. That's what happens in a society like China's, it's what they do.
The Chinese are still communists and they're still a dictatorship, therefore they love the notion of a communist "five year plan".

And if that plan amounts to strategies designed to cripple America's economy to teach America a lesson, then that is what they will do, and the first place they will start IS our Chinese manufacturing. And they don't have to just cut it off instantaneously either. They could gradually slow it all down, or they could "accidentally on purpose" find that there are "glitches" in the system that "caused them to hold or delay shipment" on various items which are critical to our economy...oopsie.

People keep saying that China could not survive such a hit to their economy. Nonsense. China could survive even if all 1.5 billion of them had to go back to one bicycle, one bowl of rice, one kid, one pair of black silk pajamas and a hat. They'd only have to do it for a couple of years to crush our economy and leave them as the economic superpower.

I am not nearly as sure about what you say, the instability in China that could be caused by a large economic downturn could be catastrophic for the government, the massively growing middle class has flexed its muscles, slightly mind you, but in recent years Beijing has been forced to respond to certain things, particularly pollution, but if all their progress is suddenly threatened, don't count on them to remain silent.

People have been willing to go along with the current Government due to the economic conditions, if that suddenly went away, you'd probably be surprised what you might see, China is as vulnerable as anyone to the shifting forces of the global economy and they may have their own housing bubble in the near future that could cause issues.

There are large scale problems such as the looming demographic time bomb that literally no one is talking about, as a result of aging population and unintended consequences of the one child policy that has the potential to cause massive problems for the Chinese economy.

The other aspect is whether in a situation in which there was large scale unrest... How would Xinping react, would he pull a Tienanmen square to restore order at all costs?

An interesting question anyway.

 

[iguanaman]

The Chinese economy is a debt fueled ponzi scheme, if anything we must decouple to protect ourselves when they face their inevitable crash/recession.

Empowering China and contributing to GDP growth there further empowers them which leads to an enhanced military, growing global influence, and a strengthening global threat to world peace. Would you purchase something or try to enhance the economy of Nazi Germany back in the 40's? The world must no longer be silent and capitulate on China. Their government is evil and is devoid of any kind of benevolent intentions.

You have zero understanding of history. Hitler's rise to power was enabled by the harsh settlement Germany endured after their defeat in WWI. The high unemployment and depressed economy was a key element in the Nazi takeover of the Govt. China's dependence on trade with the U.S. reduces any chance of conflict between us. Trumps actions against China are weakening that dependence and increasing the chances of Chinese aggression while reducing our influence in Asia. Trade wars have never benefited any nation that has attempted them.

 

[Jetboogieman]

You have zero understanding of history. Hitler's rise to power was enabled by the harsh settlement Germany endured after their defeat in WWI. The high unemployment and depressed economy was a key element in the Nazi takeover of the Govt. China's dependence on trade with the U.S. reduces any chance of conflict between us. Trumps actions against China are weakening that dependence and increasing the chances of Chinese aggression while reducing our influence in Asia. Trade wars have never benefited any nation that has attempted them.

I don't know if that's necessarily the best example, the rise of the Nazis was multifaceted and poor economic conditions don't always lead to authoritarian governments, and since there's one already in place in China (that by the way has been recently putting minorities in concentration cam.... I mean schools), it's difficult to say what a dramatic economic downturn would do to the government.

 

[Helix]

China imports zero U.S. soybeans in November for first time since trade war started

that is bad news for farmers. i don't like to see them suffer even if a lot of them voted for the orange idiot.

 

[iguanaman]

I don't know if that's necessarily the best example, the rise of the Nazis was multifaceted and poor economic conditions don't always lead to authoritarian governments, and since there's one already in place in China (that by the way has been recently putting minorities in concentration cam.... I mean schools), it's difficult to say what a dramatic economic downturn would do to the government.

The Chinese Govt. believes the way to stay in power is by providing economic growth and stability and see any threat to their economy as a threat to their survival. They are using the model of the U.S. postwar boom as a guide. The growth of the Chinese middle class rivals our own postwar boom. They are now the #1 market for automobiles if you don't believe me .

 

[Jetboogieman]

The Chinese Govt. believes the way to stay in power is by providing economic growth and stability and see any threat to their economy as a threat to their survival. They are using the model of the U.S. postwar boom as a guide. The growth of the Chinese middle class rivals our own postwar boom. They are now the #1 market for automobiles if you don't believe me .

Ok... Don't necessarily disagree with this, all I'm saying is I don't know if the Nazi parallel really works in this context.

 

[Mach]

Great, we must de-couple from the Chinese economy and begin a cold war to destabilize and destroy their nation from within. The communist government in China will start WW3 if left unchecked and are our modern day "Nazis."

You think this is Trump trying to "decouple" the U.S. economy from China? How is that even remotely plausible?

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

I am not nearly as sure about what you say, the instability in China that could be caused by a large economic downturn could be catastrophic for the government, the massively growing middle class has flexed its muscles, slightly mind you, but in recent years Beijing has been forced to respond to certain things, particularly pollution, but if all their progress is suddenly threatened, don't count on them to remain silent.

People have been willing to go along with the current Government due to the economic conditions, if that suddenly went away, you'd probably be surprised what you might see, China is as vulnerable as anyone to the shifting forces of the global economy and they may have their own housing bubble in the near future that could cause issues.

There are large scale problems such as the looming demographic time bomb that literally no one is talking about, as a result of aging population and unintended consequences of the one child policy that has the potential to cause massive problems for the Chinese economy.

The other aspect is whether in a situation in which there was large scale unrest... How would Xinping react, would he pull a Tienanmen square to restore order at all costs?

An interesting question anyway.

Yes, China would indeed pull a Tianannman Square, and they now have the tools to do it, too.
China now uses a "social credit score" along with an economic credit score, and if your actions are judged to be problematic by the government, your social credit score takes a hit. That means you get fired from a job, can't rent a decent place to live, or hold certain professional certifications or licenses. They can, with a few strokes at a keyboard, destroy your life instantly.

But more importantly, since 1949, China has repeatedly shown its willingness to put down social uprisings with an iron fist.
I don't think that there is enough "muscle" to flex anymore.
Besides, with their trillion dollar investment in their new "silk road" highway system, the deficit would be made up in due time anyway.
That would wind up giving China the power to move their investments away from any dependency on American orders.

For instance, by building up jobs, relations and trade with India and Africa, China can leverage positive growth impacts on both regions in a manner sure to make the American market less relevant to them.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

You think this is Trump trying to "decouple" the U.S. economy from China? How is that even remotely plausible?

No. It's not even "IF" he's "TRYING TO"...the net effect however, is the same, because his actions do HAVE the potential to decouple our economy from China, even if it's by accident, and the problem is, we're nowhere near capable of doing such a thing without HUGE pain as a result.
Trump maybe doesn't know he's doing this, but he wouldn't care even if he DID know.

 

[iguanaman]

Ok... Don't necessarily disagree with this, all I'm saying is I don't know if the Nazi parallel really works in this context.

It's common sense that a country where half of the men are out of work would be more vulnerable to the rise of an autocrat who provides easy solutions and scapegoats to take the blame.