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CDC warns eight COVID-19 infections are missed for every one counted

Lursa

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I can’t source something that doesn’t exist.

But the fact you don’t have a single example should tell you something.
You didnt ask for an example.

You made a very specific claim. If you need to backpedal to reassess, just admit it.
 

Phys251

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Not really.

Without the measles vaccine 'ever,' that herd immunity would have been reached. Now, we have a huge population that have been vaccinated...and thus never exposed. When someone is NOT vaccinated (like the kids of some improperly informed parents), they are still vulnerable. And get the measles.

If we had never vaccinated, that herd immunity would have been achieved but with a higher death rate and over a longer period. Measles is a very ancient disease...by the time we had a vaccine for it, it was already a fairly innocuous disease except for the very youngest humans. I got it, I got sick, I survived. The vaccine was a great thing...it saved lives but even more it saved $$ in medical costs and missed school time.
Threegoofs was right. Herd immunity is achieved when the disease dies out as a direct result of immunizing a sufficient fraction of the susceptible population.
 

Antiwar

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Isn't it strange when particular conservatives who usually don't post good comments post good comments on a particular topic?
 

Integrityrespec

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“The record surge in coronavirus cases across the US is likely far worse, with an estimated eight infections unreported for every one infection counted, according to a government report — which would put the true tally closer to 100 million.”

Which means the death rate is about equal to the common cold.
You have been scammed with this China flu hoax.
With all the claims of cases and deaths I find it remarkable that in almost a year of Covid 19 I don't know first hand a single person who has tested positive nor passed away. Why is that?
 

Lursa

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Threegoofs was right. Herd immunity is achieved when the disease dies out as a direct result of immunizing a sufficient fraction of the susceptible population.
That assumes the microbe is extinct.

If small pox was re- introduced today, there would be little to no herd immunity. Herd immunity is about the number of individuals in a population that are protected by immunity, enough so that the chain of infection is broken, that the microbe cannot find enough food to breed, and 'effectively' disappears. That is dying out, yes, but not 'no longer existing'. It doesnt mean it cant arise again in the correct circumstances. If you look at his initial statements, that's what he was referring to.

It can also still exist in its reservoir. Small pox and measles are so ancient that their reservoirs are unknown--or--those viruses have mutated so far from their initial hosts that they have speciated.
 

Threegoofs

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It's hard to get your head around it, but that's exactly what those people are calling for. They are called a death cult because they have earned the name, and I'm not going to sugarcoat words because they are too emotionally fragile to handle it. 🤷‍♂️
I’m pretty sure genocide doesn’t usually involve putting *yourself* at risk. It’s indiscriminate.
 

Threegoofs

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With all the claims of cases and deaths I find it remarkable that in almost a year of Covid 19 I don't know first hand a single person who has tested positive nor passed away. Why is that?
Because you don’t know many people?

I know tons of people who were positive, many who were sick, and a couple with hospitalizations and one death.
 

Threegoofs

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That assumes the microbe is extinct.

If small pox was re- introduced today, there would be little to no herd immunity. Herd immunity is about the number of individuals in a population that are protected by immunity, enough so that the chain of infection is broken, that the microbe cannot find enough food to breed, and 'effectively' disappears. That is dying out, yes, but not 'no longer existing'. It doesnt mean it cant arise again in the correct circumstances. If you look at his initial statements, that's what he was referring to.

It can also still exist in its reservoir. Small pox and measles are so ancient that their reservoirs are unknown--or--those viruses have mutated so far from their initial hosts that they have speciated.
It’s just not a thing.

If it was, you’d be able to furnish an actual example, and hopefully, many more.
 

Phys251

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I’m pretty sure genocide doesn’t usually involve putting *yourself* at risk. It’s indiscriminate.
Counterexample: Maximilien Robespierre.
 

iguanaman

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“The record surge in coronavirus cases across the US is likely far worse, with an estimated eight infections unreported for every one infection counted, according to a government report — which would put the true tally closer to 100 million.”

Which means the death rate is about equal to the common cold.
You have been scammed with this China flu hoax.
How many deaths does the common cold cause every year? You are right about one thing. The covid 19 virus is at least as contagious as a cold and far more deadly. Covid pneumonia is killing 1000's of us every day.
 

Phys251

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That assumes the microbe is extinct.

If small pox was re- introduced today, there would be little to no herd immunity. Herd immunity is about the number of individuals in a population that are protected by immunity, enough so that the chain of infection is broken, that the microbe cannot find enough food to breed, and 'effectively' disappears. That is dying out, yes, but not 'no longer existing'. It doesnt mean it cant arise again in the correct circumstances. If you look at his initial statements, that's what he was referring to.

It can also still exist in its reservoir. Small pox and measles are so ancient that their reservoirs are unknown--or--those viruses have mutated so far from their initial hosts that they have speciated.
It’s just not a thing.

If it was, you’d be able to furnish an actual example, and hopefully, many more.
I think we're talking past each other.

Traditionally, herd immunity assumes some nonzero level of vaccination. If a disease already had an inherent R_0 less than 1, it was destined to die out anyway.

The goal of vaccines is to get enough people inoculated so that the effective R_0 goes from >1 to <1...herd immunity.

Social distancing generally isn't factored into the discussion of herd immunity, even though it can change the effective R_0 for an infectious disease.
 

Threegoofs

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I think we're talking past each other.

Traditionally, herd immunity assumes some nonzero level of vaccination. If a disease already had an inherent R_0 less than 1, it was destined to die out anyway.

The goal of vaccines is to get enough people inoculated so that the effective R_0 goes from >1 to <1...herd immunity.

Social distancing generally isn't factored into the discussion of herd immunity, even though it can change the effective R_0 for an infectious disease.
Right. Herd immunity is a concept that is useful when discussing infectious diseases with vaccination programs.

Without a vaccine, the disease will peak and subside, but will not disappear.
 

GolfingChef

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“The record surge in coronavirus cases across the US is likely far worse, with an estimated eight infections unreported for every one infection counted, according to a government report — which would put the true tally closer to 100 million.”

Which means the death rate is about equal to the common cold.
You have been scammed with this China flu hoax.
That is why the local Children's hospital had to open some ICU beds for adults because all the rest in the city are full...that always happens in a haox.

Goodness we have a lot of ill-informed people on this forum.
 

Integrityrespec

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Damn! You got us! And the whole world was all in on it too! Pretty much every country in the world.



Nope, scientists knew that we are undercounting cases by a lot before. We used to undercount by a factor of 10x-20x. Sounds like we are now only doing so by 8x perhaps.

Everyone in the business knows about different death rates - one based on cases and another based on infections. IFR has been estimated all along accounting for the undercounts.

Anyway, death rate (IFR) is still much higher than flu and cold.
Why do CDC death rates show no rise above a normal yearly rate?
 

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You can be exposed, your system can fight off the virus, (meaning you'll have antibodies), and remain asymptomatic. Never get sick, but you can spread it.

Re: effectiveness, it depends on the viral load you encountered and caught, genetic factors, previous exposure to similar coronaviruses, the current state of your immune system, etc. The amount and type of antibodies you develop is based on all of this. Could be minimal or high.

So yes, it could definitely be less effective.
I wasn't really asking for your opinion. I was wondering if you had evidence. According to the article this thread is based on, the CDC believes that 85% of the people who were infected got sick. The fact that there have been so few known reinfections indicates that your opinion is suspect, at least in the 8-month timeframe.
 

Mongidig

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I bet you that around late January or February this thing takes a nosedive in numbers of infections. Between the vast number of people who will already be infected and the ongoing vaccinations the bug will die out quicker than expected.

Hang in there folks it's gonna get ugly for a couple months before it gets a lot better.

Whacko's please put on your masks and suck it up for couple months.
 

Tlrmln

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I bet you that around late January or February this thing takes a nosedive in numbers of infections. Between the vast number of people who will already be infected and the ongoing vaccinations the bug will die out quicker than expected.

Hang in there folks it's gonna get ugly for a couple months before it gets a lot better.

Whacko's please put on your masks and suck it up for couple months.
Wouldn't surprise me. If we're at 95 million infections already, and we need to be at about 70% (infected or vaccinated) for herd immunity, at 1.2M infections/day we're talking end of Feburary WITHOUT the vaccinations.
 
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