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CBO's Turd In The Punchbowl

JoeTheEconomist

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There wasn't a lot of punch in the bowl to start with, but CBO just put a massive turd in the economic punchbowl.

The Social Security bust moves two years ahead and long-range public debt level is roughly double last years projections. Last year debt levels were suppose to be improving. The CBO warns itself (the US Government) that it could unravel in the exact same say as Bear Stearns did in 2008.

When you read the CBO report you find that most of the projected improvement stemmed from the expiration of the Obama Tax-Cuts. Basically, the improvement came from taxes that we knew we would never collect. That should tell you to look at this year's assumptions which are fairly rosey as well. It assumes that younger workers will work longer, pay more, and get back less from government than any generation since the Great Depression.


Longer Summary Of The Report

CBO Budget Forecast is Gloomy For Millennials

(Full CBO Report)

CBO | The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
 

jonny5

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No need for shocking titles, but yes, once the CBO reports start taking into account the longer term costs of Obamacare, things start looking worse. I remember conservatives making this very point 4 years ago, that Obamacare specifically delayed the costs of Obamacare in order to avoid the CBO 10 year projections showing said costs.
 

Fisher

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Hold the presses--you mean that the Obamacare and War dividend savings the democrats have spent 4 of 5 times already in their budgets aren't real?
 

JoeTheEconomist

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No need for shocking titles, but yes, once the CBO reports start taking into account the longer term costs of Obamacare, things start looking worse. I remember conservatives making this very point 4 years ago, that Obamacare specifically delayed the costs of Obamacare in order to avoid the CBO 10 year projections showing said costs.

I am not sure what the shock is in the title. This report was awful. I think we become complacient in the face of prolonged bad news. We become immune to the depth of it. Bad news takes on an old-news feel such that no matter how bad the report it is just the same old news.

The big change year over year was the expiration of the Obama Tax-Cuts. The 2012 report was based on the idea that Americans would accept the return to normal after a decade of lower taxes. Obamacare is somewhat paid for here with more assumptions of tax increasing include an excise tax on premium healthcare insurance. Basically, the law to make healthcare more affordable will penalize the companies that provide it.
 

jonny5

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I am not sure what the shock is in the title. This report was awful. I think we become complacient in the face of prolonged bad news. We become immune to the depth of it. Bad news takes on an old-news feel such that no matter how bad the report it is just the same old news.

The big change year over year was the expiration of the Obama Tax-Cuts. The 2012 report was based on the idea that Americans would accept the return to normal after a decade of lower taxes. Obamacare is somewhat paid for here with more assumptions of tax increasing include an excise tax on premium healthcare insurance. Basically, the law to make healthcare more affordable will penalize the companies that provide it.

Turd in a punchbowl is shocking imagery and theres no need for it. This report is no more awful than the 100 that came before it. The financial situation of the country sucks, and nothing is going to change it until the voters kick everyone in govt out. And that's not going to happen.
 

JoeTheEconomist

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Not in the scale of things. Its been awful for a long time.

Last year the projection was that debt was growing slower than income. This year, debt is not only growing faster than income, but it is based on the idea that government will provide younger Americans a level of services consistent with the 1930s. That to me is worse.

Your response just takes me back to complacent in the face of bad news.
 

joG

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There wasn't a lot of punch in the bowl to start with, but CBO just put a massive turd in the economic punchbowl.

The Social Security bust moves two years ahead and long-range public debt level is roughly double last years projections. Last year debt levels were suppose to be improving. The CBO warns itself (the US Government) that it could unravel in the exact same say as Bear Stearns did in 2008.

When you read the CBO report you find that most of the projected improvement stemmed from the expiration of the Obama Tax-Cuts. Basically, the improvement came from taxes that we knew we would never collect. That should tell you to look at this year's assumptions which are fairly rosey as well. It assumes that younger workers will work longer, pay more, and get back less from government than any generation since the Great Depression.


Longer Summary Of The Report

CBO Budget Forecast is Gloomy For Millennials

(Full CBO Report)

CBO | The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook

If the US government goes the unraveling way of Bear Stearns it will be quite a fest. We will all want the cellar full with Campbell's Soups, water, batteries and ammunition. You bet. That will be adventure. ;)
 

joG

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Last year the projection was that debt was growing slower than income. This year, debt is not only growing faster than income, but it is based on the idea that government will provide younger Americans a level of services consistent with the 1930s. That to me is worse.

Your response just takes me back to complacent in the face of bad news.

Oh. There is little doubt. We have certainly been more like the Grasshopper than the Ant and the whiff of Fall is in the air.
 

JoeTheEconomist

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Oh. There is little doubt. We have certainly been more like the Grasshopper than the Ant and the whiff of Fall is in the air.

What troubles me is the indifference to terrible news. We are like a boxer that has been hit so many times that we can't tell the difference between a measuring jab and the right cross.
 

joG

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What troubles me is the indifference to terrible news. We are like a boxer that has been hit so many times that we can't tell the difference between a measuring jab and the right cross.

Enough hits and the man goes down. The last swipe can need only a feather.
 

jonny5

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Last year the projection was that debt was growing slower than income. This year, debt is not only growing faster than income, but it is based on the idea that government will provide younger Americans a level of services consistent with the 1930s. That to me is worse.

Your response just takes me back to complacent in the face of bad news.

Not complacent. Defeatist.
 
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