Can we have an electric car dominated society soon?

[Lord of Planar]

The lithium-ion batteries in EVs include heaters to keep them above freezing when they are in operation. Of course those heaters also require power, and that also has to be factored into the battery drain. You also never want to charge a frozen lithium-ion battery. Doing so even once will result in a sudden, severe, and permanent capacity loss on the order of several dozen percent or more, as well a similar and also permanent increase in internal resistance. You will effectively destroy your battery if you attempt to charge it when it is too cold. If it is too hot, it will not accept a charge, you will also damage the battery, and it could start a fire.

I know.

From dead cold, how long and how much power does it take to warm the batteries?

These true believers don't understand such concepts.

 

[Davin]

Yeah.......

I'd love to see a few hundred thousand happy Norwegian help this guy dig out your minerals for you.

Just curious, do you REALLY think this person is digging out material that is ONLY used in EV vehicles? Let's test your education.

 

[Glitch]

I know.

From dead cold, how long and how much power does it take to warm the batteries?

These true believers don't understand such concepts.

I do not know the answer to your question.

I have to keep my lead-acid battery in a battery-blanket 24/7 when not in use. Otherwise the security system on my vehicle will drain the battery in ~3 days during the Winter, or in about 10 days during the Summer. I keep another battery on constant trickle-charge, just in case the battery in my vehicle is not up to the task.

 

[countryboy]

I know.

From dead cold, how long and how much power does it take to warm the batteries?

These true believers don't understand such concepts.

What's the big deal? If your battery dies, can't the AAA just bring you a gallon of electricity to get you to the electricity station?

 

[Andyh2299]

There have been numerous peer-reviewed studies done. EVs powered by either coal power plants or corn-based ethanol pollute considerably more than ICE vehicles.

And the ones that don't

 

[Andyh2299]

Don't fear it. Economic warfare will work in our favor. If we continue to trade our wealth to China, we will most certainly lose our economic status.

The problem is Americans are too damn lazy. We can send jobs to Mexico or Vietnam but there is a lot more crime and nor the mid level management skills.

 

[Glitch]

And the ones that don't

As I posted, just the manufacture EV creates more pollution and is more harmful to the environment than similarly-sized ICE vehicles. Their extra weight also contributes to that pollution and increases the cost of road maintenance.

 

[Lord of Planar]

What's the big deal? If your battery dies, can't the AAA just bring you a gallon of electricity to get you to the electricity station?

LOL...

I like that.

A gallon of electricity!

 

[Lord of Planar]

As I posted, just the manufacture EV creates more pollution and is more harmful to the environment than similarly-sized ICE vehicles. Their extra weight also contributes to that pollution and increases the cost of road maintenance.

Yes, the tires in particular.

One of the toxic thing all cars emit, battery or IC, is aerosols of rubber from the tires and brake dust.

There was a common misconception that electrics create more brake dust because they are stopping more mass, but this ignores that most the stopping is done with regenerative braking, and the brake pads actually get less wear than an IC.

The tires are a different matter. Electric car weigh so much more than a regular car, and the cost and life of the tires reflect that. they create so much more ribber in aerosol form that regular cars.

 

[Glitch]

Yes, the tires in particular.

One of the toxic thing all cars emit, battery or IC, is aerosols of rubber from the tires and brake dust.

There was a common misconception that electrics create more brake dust because they are stopping more mass, but this ignores that most the stopping is done with regenerative braking, and the brake pads actually get less wear than an IC.

True, and those vehicles that also incorporate a fly-wheel can use that braking energy to further charge the battery through the use of an alternator. There is still some energy loss between acceleration and deceleration, which is reflected in the form of heat so it is not 100% efficient, but much of the energy expended to accelerate the vehicle can be recuperated when decelerating.

The tires are a different matter. Electric car weigh so much more than a regular car, and the cost and life of the tires reflect that. they create so much more ribber in aerosol form that regular cars.

They also include different materials in their construction, but they both contain similar petroleum products in their manufacture. So EVs will not eliminate our need for oil or fossil fuels in general, unless we want to make them entirely out of wood. They just eliminate our need to keep refilling them with fossil fuels, but they still have all the plastic and other petroleum products that can be found on any other ICE vehicle.

 

[Greenbeard]

The main issue is the price of the cars.
Once they lick that problem, they will begin to be adopted at a record pace, and the market will be forced to come up with ways to better deal with recycling.
And not only will they be forced to deal with that, they will also be forced to invent newer and better battery formulas that aren't as hazardous and that do not require as much effort to remanufacture or recycle.

Quite the kicker in this WSJ article from last week: Electric Vehicles Are Shattering the Barrier to Adoption that Could Matter Most

For car buyers, a new reality is setting in: You don’t necessarily have to pay more to go electric. The automobile industry may never be the same.

As this transition unfolds, it could soon put buyers of gas-powered vehicles in an unprecedented position: They’ll have to pay a premium to stick with last-generation technology.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Quite the kicker on this WSJ article from last week: Electric Vehicles Are Shattering the Barrier to Adoption that Could Matter Most

Oh it's all happening, for sure.
I personally would love to see it happening faster, but I've been through this kind of cycle too many times to count.
Not with cars, with broadcast grade video production equipment.

Vacuum tube image sensors >>>>> solid state image sensor chips
Two piece camera+VTR >>>>>>> one piece camcorders
Pure composite analog video >>>>>> Y/C and then later, component video
Analog video>>>>>>> digital video
Standard definition >>>>>>>>>> High definition
MPEG based video codecs >>>>>>>>> MPEG-4 based codecs
TAPE >>>>>>>>>>> solid state media storage

Of particular interest was the price wars between videotape and solid state storage media.
SD memory cards used to be incredibly expensive and then suddenly one day the price of SD cards fell through the floor even as they kept getting faster and faster and faster, and BIGGER.
The prices STILL went through the floor, and within six months everyone STOPPED MAKING camcorders that used tape.

 

[Glitch]

Quite the kicker in this WSJ article from last week: Electric Vehicles Are Shattering the Barrier to Adoption that Could Matter Most

When Alyeska Pipeline Service Company replaces its fleet of ICE vehicles with EVs, I will consider replacing my Toyota, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm hanging on to my 1987 Nissan 4x4 pick-up, however. It pre-dates when we started using computers in vehicles, so it is safe from G5+ geomagnetic storms. I may have to replace the battery, but it will fair much better than my more modern 2009 Toyota which will become completely inoperable.

 

[Lord of Planar]

When Alyeska Pipeline Service Company replaces its fleet of ICE vehicles with EVs, I will consider replacing my Toyota, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm hanging on to my 1987 Nissan 4x4 pick-up, however. It pre-dates when we started using computers in vehicles, so it is safe from G5+ geomagnetic storms. I may have to replace the battery, but it will fair much better than my more modern 2009 Toyota which will become completely inoperable.

I don't know if the news feeds I see are just pushing the solar storms because they are unusual, or just because I have clicked on them. I have seen where we have had some strong ones durning the last year or two.

Are we seeing outside of normal, or am I just seeing hype?

 

[Glitch]

I don't know if the news feeds I see are just pushing the solar storms because they are unusual, or just because I have clicked on them. I have seen where we have had some strong ones durning the last year or two.

Are we seeing outside of normal, or am I just seeing hype?

Between now and sometime in 2025 we are reaching the peak of Solar Cycle 25, so there is going to be more solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 is also likely to be much bigger than the previous solar cycle. In 2012 we got very, very lucky, and missed the CME that was produced by an X-40 solar flare by just 9 days, otherwise it would have been that G5+ geomagnetic storm and the Carrington Event of 1859 all over again, only much worse considering our dependence on electronics today.

Let's not forget that NOAA scientists were predicting a big Solar Cycle 24:


This is what actually happened:



Solar Cycle 25 is more likely to be like Solar Cycle 23 than Solar Cycle 24, which was rather minimal compared to prior solar cycles.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Between now and sometime in 2025 we are reaching the peak of Solar Cycle 25, so there is going to be more solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 is also likely to be much bigger than the previous solar cycle. In 2012 we got very, very lucky, and missed the CME that was produced by an X-40 solar flare by just 9 days, otherwise it would have been that G5+ geomagnetic storm and the Carrington Event of 1859 all over again, only much worse considering our dependence on electronics today.

Let's not forget that NOAA scientists were predicting a big Solar Cycle 24:
View attachment 67440075

This is what actually happened:

View attachment 67440076

Solar Cycle 25 is more likely to be like Solar Cycle 23 than Solar Cycle 24, which was rather minimal compared to prior solar cycles.

Thanx. I haven't been following solar variations. The sunspots don't nesessarly indicate everything goinf on with the sun. I'm going to bet that this is nothing unusual, and its just the way news feeds hype something once you chick on it once.

 

[Glitch]

Thanx. I haven't been following solar variations. The sunspots don't nesessarly indicate everything goinf on with the sun. I'm going to bet that this is nothing unusual, and its just the way news feeds hype something once you chick on it once.

I follow the solar weather pretty closely during the Winter. It is really the only opportunity I have to see the aurora, but since I live so close to the coast I'm usually frustrated by overcast skies. You need the really clear skies of interior Alaska to get a good view of the northern lights.

The University of Alaska at Fairbanks has a good web site at:

Aurora Forecast | Geophysical Institute

Forecasts of auroral activity, updated daily.

www.gi.alaska.edu

NOAA, of course, has its own space weather center.

Homepage | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov

Between the two of them I can get a good idea of what to expect.

 

[Lord of Planar]

I follow the solar weather pretty closely during the Winter. It is really the only opportunity I have to see the aurora, but since I live so close to the coast I'm usually frustrated by overcast skies. You need the really clear skies of interior Alaska to get a good view of the northern lights.

The University of Alaska at Fairbanks has a good web site at:

Aurora Forecast | Geophysical Institute

Forecasts of auroral activity, updated daily.

www.gi.alaska.edu

NOAA, of course, has its own space weather center.

Homepage | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov

Between the two of them I can get a good idea of what to expect.

I figured you would. I could look it up, just not up there in my priority list.

Cyclical situation normal, huh?

 

[Glitch]

I figured you would. I could look it up, just not up there in my priority list.

Cyclical situation normal, huh?

That depends on who you listen too. After NOAA completely botched their Solar Cycle 24 prediction they are not making any predictions about Solar Cycle 25. However, NASA is making predictions and they are claiming that Solar Cycle 25 will have between 30% to 50% less solar activity that Solar Cycle 24. In other words, NASA is predicting yet another grand minimum, similar to the Dalton Minimum between 1790 and 1830.

The next Grand Solar Minimum has (very likely) begun: NASA predicts lowest solar cycle in 200 years

Finally, it looks as if the GSM is on. First, this is not a 100% conformation that the Next Grand Solar Minimum has already begun, even though the data strongly indicates that the trends will conti…

abruptearthchanges.com

They also cite the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, but unlike the Dalton Minimum, those other two solar minimums were calculated centuries after the fact and not actually observed. We have been recording solar cycles since 1755 and during all that time there has only been one observed solar minimum.

Considering that NASA is literally placing the lives of astronauts on the line with their prediction, lets hope they get it right. If they are wrong the moon landing they are scheduling for 2025 could go terribly wrong.

 

[Simpletruther]

A large percentage of electric power is still produced from fossil fuels. So the shift to electric cars is not so much a revolution, as a demand for revolution.

I'm more interested in the revolution which will come with self-driving cars. Granting equal mobility to everyone, at only slighter greater cost, will achieve what even the best public transport has failed to achieve. Government will be able to issue "autonomous taxi vouchers" to the elderly and disabled. And to the poor also: poor people need transport to attend job interviews, and one of the questions they will be asked is whether they have their own car. If they can say unequivocally Yes, they can afford autonomous taxis to work, they're on a level footing with applicants who say Yes they own a car.

Ideally, self-driving cars and vans can fill the needs of delivery which currently adds to congestion on our roads. But before that happens there will be multiple vans, only partly full, actually making congestion worse. To hurry the transition I would tax all vehicles by miles traveled. And if autonomous vehicles prove themselves, then also institute roads and freeways where driver-vehicles suffer an added tax. Bad driving is the main cause of congestion: it forces good drivers to be more 'defensive' not to mention causing accidents.

A lot of people enjoy driving, but I think most of them would gladly trade it away, in exchange for getting where they are going more quickly, more reliably, and with less chance of dying.

They keep pushing it back though. Yea I was hoping it would be here by now.

 

[Ug make hammer]

There electric vehicles can also be used for energy storage and thereby help to speed up the transition towards renewable energy.

This is a good point (among others). Car batteries are dual-use. An obvious time to charge an electric car is overnight, when wind power sometimes exceeds total demand for electricity. There's another obvious time: it's as soon as you get home (ie around about evening peak) and this has the advantage that you can visit a restaurant or do evening shopping without "battery anxiety."

Smart metering is essential. People can overcome their anxiety, if there's a price incentive to wait until later in the evening. Even if they only partly charge their car, then schedule a full charge for whenever power is cheapest, that still advances the process of storing renewable power for when its needed.

Even taking renewable power out of the equation, it's still good for everyone to have electric cars used for demand levelling. Suppose all electricity came from gas turbines, and there was no power storage. Everyone has to pay for turbines and their staff, who are idle most of the day and night. Storing some of the power, while also saving fuel costs on an electric car, is good for everyone whether their car is electric or not.

 

[Ug make hammer]

They keep pushing it back though. Yea I was hoping it would be here by now.

Corporations are concerned about being sued for tens of millions of dollars per death. That's something which doesn't apply to bad drivers: quite often they get off because negligence is hard to prove (negligence in an action, as opposed to negligence in manufacture.) And when they do get punished, it's prison time which we know is an insufficient disincentive to others.

But corporations are also concerned about their public image and the public image of their product. These two things amount to a huge obstacle to driverless cars.

Hence "assisted driving." The car will do more and more of the actual driving, but rare incidents where they collide with a runaway pram (thinking it's just debris from a lorry) will be the fault of the driver who should have been paying attention.

It's a rather dismal prognostication, isn't it? The worst of both worlds: driving would be no fun, and though it may be safer, it wouldn't be significantly quicker.

I haven't completely given up on an arterial/capillary system though. Arterial roads would be faster and safer than currently, and they'd probably be fenced off to prevent anything but a car or lorry from getting onto them. Capillaries would be residential roads, where speed matters less and there may be children or pets (or drunks) on the road. All that remains is that the capillaries remain linked to each other, for the sake of traditionalists who insist on driving all the time. We can't let them on the arterials, because they don't have the skills or network communication to drive at high speed with short following gaps. At best they would drive slow or be erratic. At worst they would cause accidents. I acknowledge that a "two tier" road system based on the assumption that humans are worse drivers, would be extremely divisive. It would make some people very angry.

 

[ralfy]

EVs together with renewable energy involve low energy returns and quantity:

The Oil Drum | Why EROI Matters (Part 1 of 6)

theoildrum.com

Car-driving cultures on a global scale will require energy and material sources on a scale much more than the biosphere can allow. And the corporations that will depend on that are competitive and capitalist, which means there's no such thing as conservation.

 

[Bergslagstroll]

This is a good point (among others). Car batteries are dual-use. An obvious time to charge an electric car is overnight, when wind power sometimes exceeds total demand for electricity. There's another obvious time: it's as soon as you get home (ie around about evening peak) and this has the advantage that you can visit a restaurant or do evening shopping without "battery anxiety."

Smart metering is essential. People can overcome their anxiety, if there's a price incentive to wait until later in the evening. Even if they only partly charge their car, then schedule a full charge for whenever power is cheapest, that still advances the process of storing renewable power for when its needed.

Even taking renewable power out of the equation, it's still good for everyone to have electric cars used for demand levelling. Suppose all electricity came from gas turbines, and there was no power storage. Everyone has to pay for turbines and their staff, who are idle most of the day and night. Storing some of the power, while also saving fuel costs on an electric car, is good for everyone whether their car is electric or not.

There fossil fuel and nuclear power also get more unrealiable as climate change get worse.

How climate-related weather conditions disrupt power plants and affect people

Severe weather conditions triggered by climate change can adversely affect the operation of power plants.

phys.org

https://www.npr.org/2018/07/27/632988813/hot-weather-spells-trouble-for-nuclear-power-plants

So that you can build a more reliable grid that combines different types of renewable energy and energy storage. There consumers can also adapt their consumption to the supply of electricity.

There oil also have been an unrealibility energy source ever since the 1970's oil crisis, that comes with massive costs and risks. There Russia's horrific invasion of Ukraine is the latest example of that.