Can Ukraine win?

[Acadia]

It's not a maybe.

Of course it's a maybe. I'm not saying I'm for the "no-fly zone", but it's a maybe. No one knows what would happen.
Unless they've somehow got a time machine and traveled into the future and then came back to tell us.

 

[Jredbaron96]

Of course it's a maybe. I'm not saying I'm for the "no-fly zone", but it's a maybe. No one knows what would happen.

It's the corner stone of modern Russian nuclear doctrine, not something you roll the dice on.

 

[Acadia]

It's the corner stone of modern Russian nuclear doctrine, not something you roll the dice on.

What's Russia's nuclear doctrine? Is this recent doctrine?
I ask because the West/NATO is coalescing in a way Putin did not see, or expect.
He's a dead man walking. Figuratively, or literally.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

Putzin is insane. And if the rumors of him having a terminal illness are true, that makes him, a man with nothing to lose, even more dangerous.

A lot of speculation in your post. Maybe accurate. Maybe not.

Putin has a long history of bullying and bluffing.

Unless he has really lost his mind, I seriously doubt that he would employ nuclear weapons.

I wouldn’t put it past him to employ chemical and/or biological weapons though. Another war crime to add to the growing list.

 

[Jredbaron96]

What's Russia's nuclear doctrine? Is this recent doctrine?

Since 2009 the Russians have concluded that in a war with NATO their conventional forces would be unable to withstand the NATO onslaught and their only hope was to "de-escalate" by targeting single nuclear strikes as a warning, forcing NATO to determine whether continuing the war was worth nuclear annihilation.

There's no way to strike Russia without having some kind of blowback; the Russian nuclear arsenal is tied to a dead-hand switch that will automatically fire even if the entire Russian chain of command is wiped out.

In Ukraine Russia has a way to strike with nuclear weapons against Ukrainian targets in a way that would not automatically result in a full scale exchange, something NATO doesn't have.

 

[independentusa]

I listened to a little of those two idiots that took over the Rush Limbaugh show this morning and now I'm wondering how many people feel like those defeatist dumb asses do.
They think if Ukraine starts to win Putin will use tactical nukes and the Ukraine along with the world will back down. If that is your attitude I'd have to ask why support Ukraine at all? Why not just hand Putin the keys to Ukraine and the rest of Europe too while you're at it?
Damn I miss Rush.

Most experts are now worried about Putin using biological or chemical weapon, not nukes.

 

[The AntiDonald]

I listened to a little of those two idiots that took over the Rush Limbaugh show this morning and now I'm wondering how many people feel like those defeatist dumb asses do.
They think if Ukraine starts to win Putin will use tactical nukes and the Ukraine along with the world will back down. If that is your attitude I'd have to ask why support Ukraine at all? Why not just hand Putin the keys to Ukraine and the rest of Europe too while you're at it?
Damn I miss Rush.

For all practical purposes, Ukraine has been winning since it began. They have thrown Putin totally off his guard. Sure they are losing buildings and innocent people, but when compared to the overall numbers Putin sent to do his dirty work, they are winning.

When Putin has to resort to bombing children's hospitals, it shows he is losing his grip. Putin and only Putin has ruined his countries' economy. And it's not gotten that bad yet. I would call that losing.

 

[Acadia]

Since 2009 the Russians have concluded that in a war with NATO their conventional forces would be unable to withstand the NATO onslaught and their only hope was to "de-escalate" by targeting single nuclear strikes as a warning, forcing NATO to determine whether continuing the war was worth nuclear annihilation.

There's no way to strike Russia without having some kind of blowback; the Russian nuclear arsenal is tied to a dead-hand switch that will automatically fire even if the entire Russian chain of command is wiped out.

In Ukraine Russia has a way to strike with nuclear weapons against Ukrainian targets in a way that would not automatically result in a full scale exchange, something NATO doesn't have.

So like an all-or-nothing response?

 

[Roadvirus]

Most experts are now worried about Putin using biological or chemical weapon, not nukes.

It would be the last thing he'd do. The war would come right to his doorstep.

 

[Acadia]

For all practical purposes, Ukraine has been winning since it began. They have thrown Putin totally off his guard. Sure they are losing buildings and innocent people, but when compared to the overall numbers Putin sent to do his dirty work, they are winning.

When Putin has to resort to bombing children's hospitals, it shows he is losing his grip. Putin and only Putin has ruined his countries' economy. And it's not gotten that bad yet. I would call that losing.

Ukraine's leadership and resolve are proving more than Putin bargained for. He's killing innocents so Zelensky relents.

 

[Jredbaron96]

So like an all-or-nothing response?

Essentially. Moscow sees NATO intervention in Ukraine as the first step towards an invasion of Russia itself.

 

[Chainsawmassacre]

For all practical purposes, Ukraine has been winning since it began. They have thrown Putin totally off his guard. Sure they are losing buildings and innocent people, but when compared to the overall numbers Putin sent to do his dirty work, they are winning.

When Putin has to resort to bombing children's hospitals, it shows he is losing his grip. Putin and only Putin has ruined his countries' economy. And it's not gotten that bad yet. I would call that losing.

Despite that Putin is gaining and holding ground.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

How? Do you think NATO would attack? The US would attack Russia? What would the result of that be?
Further escalation, leading to all out nuclear conflict?

If Putin used nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the effects would likely be felt in neighboring NATO countries, triggering article 5.

Even if radiation didn’t effect neighboring NATO countries, any use of the ultimate weapon of mass destruction/death would compel every civilized European country, and the United States, to crush the Russian military and remove Putin.

As for reciprocating with nuclear weapons, I believe that our country and others would not use nuclear weapons unless leadership believed it was absolutely necessary.

I could be wrong, of course. Just my opinion.

 

[Roadvirus]

Despite that Putin is gaining and holding ground.

Actually, no.

Ukraine's been able to retake a couple cities. That and they've done significant damage to the Russian invasion force.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

ven if radiation didn’t effect neighboring NATO countries, any use of the ultimate weapon of mass destruction/death would compel every civilized European country, and the United States, to crush the Russian military and remove Putin.

Thats nonsense. Putin would simply start launching missiles most likely IMO.
Russia actually has the capability to defend itself, we're not talking Iraq or Afghanistan here.

So.....I do not agree with you. Why do you feel a need to make Ukraine and Russia your business? Do you know that Ukraine is accepting walk-ins? If its that important to you.....

 

[The AntiDonald]

Despite that Putin is gaining and holding ground.

But the question is what's his end game? Does he want a desolated, uninhabited territory to be stuck with and have to rebuild? What good does that do him. His plan was for Kiev to fall within a few days so he could install a pro-Russian government. The Ukrainians have made it clear they will fight till every last one of them is dead.

Even when this conflict is over, his government is finished. The free world has seen to that. He has started his own demise and that of Mother Russia. No matter how you look at it, he loses.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

A complete reversal of Russian forces, the devastation of Russian forces in Ukraine, and an impending collapse of the Russian war effort.

Simply put, you believe that if Russian forces were defeated and expelled from Ukraine, Putin would employ nuclear weapons?

He’d have to be clinically insane to make that suicidal choice.

 

[The AntiDonald]

Simply put, you believe that if Russian forces were defeated and expelled from Ukraine, Putin would employ nuclear weapons?

He’d have to be clinically insane to make that suicidal choice.

He very well may be insane. A nuclear conflict in my mind has always been inevitable. It was always just a matter of time. I'd say we're as close to it now as we were in the 60s.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

Thats nonsense. Putin would simply start launching missiles most likely IMO.

This ^^ is nonsense, IMO.

Which country/countries would Putin “simply start launching missiles” towards? Why? What would be gained?

Russia actually has the capability to defend itself, we're not talking Iraq or Afghanistan here.

Russia isn’t untouchable. Not by a long shot.

If the United States and our allies are compelled to attack Russia, Russia would lose. Guaranteed.

So.....I do not agree with you. Why do you feel a need to make Ukraine and Russia your business?

Whether you’re willing to acknowledge it or not does not change the fact that the United States has interests around the globe, same as our first world allies. Effects from conflicts on the scale of Ukraine are felt by all.

Do you know that Ukraine is accepting walk-ins? If its that important to you.....

I have already served an entire career in our military. My dues is fully paid and my right to opine with it.

How about you?

 

[RaleBulgarian]

He very well may be insane. A nuclear conflict in my mind has always been inevitable. It was always just a matter of time. I'd say we're as close to it now as we were in the 60s.

I don’t buy into the inevitability of a nuclear war, but I do agree we may be closer to that realization than we have been in a very long time.

 

[Desert Storm]

Given that West is not going to militarily support Ukraine (beyond supplying weapons) I don't see how Ukraine can win in the next year. Maybe after 10-20 years of Afghan like resistance or after Putin dies and new Russian government is tired of years-long-conflict?

I doubt it will be 10-20 years, but otherwise you are correct. Putin cannot control a country where nobody wants Russians there. He's looking at a war he cannot win in the long run

 

[Variant]

Essentially. Moscow sees NATO intervention in Ukraine as the first step towards an invasion of Russia itself.

It's Russia who wants to hold the dragon by the tail not NATO. They can't be backed into a conflict they start.

If the line is "were going to use nukes unless we get what we want" they are going to be obliterated.

 

[Jredbaron96]

Simply put, you believe that if Russian forces were defeated and expelled from Ukraine, Putin would employ nuclear weapons?

He’d have to be clinically insane to make that suicidal choice.

It'd be insane from our perspective sure, but for Moscow it'd be the only option.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

This ^^ is nonsense, IMO.

Which country/countries would Putin “simply start launching missiles” towards? Why? What would be gained?

Russia isn’t untouchable. Not by a long shot.

If the United States and our allies are compelled to attack Russia, Russia would lose. Guaranteed.

Whether you’re willing to acknowledge it or not does not change the fact that the United States has interests around the globe, same as our first world allies. Effects from conflicts on the scale of Ukraine are felt by all.

I have already served an entire career in our military. My dues is fully paid and my right to opine with it.

How about you?

As already stated: disagree*

 

[Mach]

Direct NATO intervention would absolutely result in nuclear retaliation.

You really think so? I doubt it. Escalation from a conventional skirmish to mutual destruction of the entirety of Russia and the United States, possibly even massive damage to the world via nuclear winter, seems absurd to even suggest might occur.
I get that people fear it, but he'd be the ruler of a smoking , radioactive ruin.

There seems to be a lot of conventional warfare that could occur before nukes would be employed, because it's not like they fire off a few and say "told ya so". In theory retaliation is unloaded all of them to ensure complete devastation...mutually assured destruction.
I just can't imagine him being that insane. Maybe U.S. intelligence disagrees, I have no idea.