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Can Trump win in 2020 relying on only his base?

independentusa

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Trump seems to make every play and speech directly to his base. Some people say it is 35%, some say 45%, but is that enough to get him another term? Can he rely on Dems drifting away from the Dem candidate if he/she is not the one they wanted as they did in 2016? What do you think?
 

AGENT J

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Trump seems to make every play and speech directly to his base. Some people say it is 35%, some say 45%, but is that enough to get him another term? Can he rely on Dems drifting away from the Dem candidate if he/she is not the one they wanted as they did in 2016? What do you think?

well theres way more factors than that

in general going by current info it seems like his base would not get it down right now

but what if theres low turn out?
what if a independent runs?
etc etc

and thats just going off of voting blocks not many other scenarios
what if jobs and markets improve/decline directly because of him?
what if theres a major catastrophe and he responses well or poorly
what if the investigations come out

all things being equal the answer is no, his base is not enough but we have no idea what the situation is going to be in 2020 why to early
 

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Trump seems to make every play and speech directly to his base. Some people say it is 35%, some say 45%, but is that enough to get him another term? Can he rely on Dems drifting away from the Dem candidate if he/she is not the one they wanted as they did in 2016? What do you think?

It isn't "only his base" enjoying the best economy in decades, and the lowest unemployment of their lifetimes.
 

Hicup

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Trump seems to make every play and speech directly to his base. Some people say it is 35%, some say 45%, but is that enough to get him another term? Can he rely on Dems drifting away from the Dem candidate if he/she is not the one they wanted as they did in 2016? What do you think?

His base is solid. What that number is, is in question, my guess is about 40% give or take, so no, it's not enough. I suspect he's going to ignore states like NY, CA, and concentrate his resources on the former Blue Wall that he demolished in 2016; and of those voters, I suspect that they will vote with their wallets. His new-found support among legal Latino voters helps him, and I suspect his black vote will increase as well, due to keeping his promise about raising their employment numbers.

To me, his best approach to solidifying even more black and poor votes is to abolish the parts of legislation that came with the Gingrich/Clinton administration requiring welfare and social safety-Net payouts to families that are in tact. Strengthen the family, make it easier for families to reproduce, and thrive, and he will win. Right now, marriage is seen primarily among young adults to be a penalty, and they're correct.



Tim-
 

Grokmaster

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His base is solid. What that number is, is in question, my guess is about 40% give or take, so no, it's not enough. I suspect he's going to ignore states like NY, CA, and concentrate his resources on the former Blue Wall that he demolished in 2016; and of those voters, I suspect that they will vote with their wallets. His new-found support among legal Latino voters helps him, and I suspect his black vote will increase as well, due to keeping his promise about raising their employment numbers.

To me, his best approach to solidifying even more black and poor votes is to abolish the parts of legislation that came with the Gingrich/Clinton administration requiring welfare and social safety-Net payouts to families that are in tact. Strengthen the family, make it easier for families to reproduce, and thrive, and he will win. Right now, marriage is seen primarily among young adults to be a penalty, and they're correct.



Tim-

He won the election handily w/o California and NY or Illinois, by winning the popular vote in 30 states, including four of the seven with populations of 10,000,000 or more, which is ALL OF THEM, except CA., NY., and Il....
 

Mr Person

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Trump seems to make every play and speech directly to his base. Some people say it is 35%, some say 45%, but is that enough to get him another term? Can he rely on Dems drifting away from the Dem candidate if he/she is not the one they wanted as they did in 2016? What do you think?

I'd bet that his average approval rating is a fairly good measure of how many people remain in his base.

It's not perfect, because someone might be a single-issue voter who somehow approves of something Trump has accomplished, say, a rich person who wants to pay less taxes no matter what it costs us down the road.
 

ultmd

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He won the election handily w/o California and NY or Illinois, by winning the popular vote in 30 states, including four of the seven with populations of 10,000,000 or more, which is ALL OF THEM, except CA., NY., and Il....

:lamo
That's a very weak argument. He barely won the EC, and every intelligent American understands that.

Drumpf (his real, German, name) has virtually no chance at reelection. He won 2016 via a literal miracle (along with help from his Russian handlers), with the one of the smallest Electoral College margins (i.e. 46th out of 54) in HISTORY......and he lost the popular vote by larger than any POTUS since the Civil War era.

His poularlity in the Rust Belt states that flipped for him in 2016, is at rock bottom. Voters in those states literally routed incumbent GOP'ers from office at all state government levels in the midterms.

And there is virtually zero chance that suppression of minority voters will succeed in 2020.

The answer to the OP is simple: NO.

Drumpf, if he's still around in 2020, will almost certainly lose the EC in a landslide, and the general popular vote by at 5+ Million votes.
 
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uptower

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Trump seems to make every play and speech directly to his base. Some people say it is 35%, some say 45%, but is that enough to get him another term? Can he rely on Dems drifting away from the Dem candidate if he/she is not the one they wanted as they did in 2016? What do you think?

If conditions were almost exactly the same as 2016 he'd have a chance:

A weak opponent - almost as unpopular as him
Russian help and an electorate not wise to it
Blue collar dissatisfaction
outsider status - no track record in govt means no blemishes
people outside base willing to overlook racism
last minute revelations that hurt opponent
republican strength in general
gerrymandering and voter suppression in just the right places
people outside base believe the myth of his business acumen
swing voters think he'll be an improvement
An electorate who think he really won't be as silly as he sounds (see no track record)

AND he'd have to have lived up to his promises - not just the ones to the base like the wall, but those with broader appeal such as on the economy and jobs


The problem for him is he'd need all of these to happen again and some are no longer possible
 

<alt>doxygen

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No.

And his "base" is actually losing members for the first time, seemingly over this Trump shutdown.

No one sees him as a great deal maker anymore.

He'll get the religious fundies and the deplorable contingent. He could commit mass murder and they'd still back him.
 

JustHanging

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Trump seems to make every play and speech directly to his base. Some people say it is 35%, some say 45%, but is that enough to get him another term? Can he rely on Dems drifting away from the Dem candidate if he/she is not the one they wanted as they did in 2016? What do you think?

Don't forget about the Russians, useful idiots like Trump don't come along every day. They'll be doing everything they can to keep him in office, and have a proven track record given 2016.
 
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Hawkeye10

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Trump seems to make every play and speech directly to his base. Some people say it is 35%, some say 45%, but is that enough to get him another term? Can he rely on Dems drifting away from the Dem candidate if he/she is not the one they wanted as they did in 2016? What do you think?

Trump can not win in 2020, he should be smart enough to know this, and he should get off the stage voluntarily .
 

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No one sees him as a great deal maker anymore.

It's become clear his only negotiating "skill" is throwing a temper tantrum and promising to do as much harm as possible until he gets his way.

Literally what we would expect of a misbehaving five year old. His parents sure dropped the ball raising him.
 

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It isn't "only his base" enjoying the best economy in decades, and the lowest unemployment of their lifetimes.

Except Trump has timed it in reverse order. Most Politicians will get their serious policy goals accomplished immediately when they have the most political capital to spend and then if they are going to try to game the system to show off economic gains will cut them into the debate later in the first term trying to head for a second. Trump spent all his early time in a retribution and ego based effort to destroy the ACA and other efforts to wipe the name of Obama from the records (that is ego for you, thinking he could wipe the name of a former President entirely from the books). Then Trump immediately cut in his firehose with an economic stimulus that was not called for. That is going to leave the sugar high economy on the wane just in time for the 2020 elections. Nicely timed Donald Duck.

Trump is and always has been a thug. He thinks like a thug and acts like a thug. The only ironic thing about Trump trying to use extortion to get his wall is that extortion, not money laundering was Trump's first and most oft used tool throughout his life.
 
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Helix

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he's probably going to lose some independents and others who don't want to be in a cult led by a fool. i hope that it's enough for him to be defeated. i'm really hoping that the Democrats make electability the top priority for choosing a candidate. their candidate will be the only one with any chance to defeat Trumpists, so they need to choose very carefully. also, Jill Stein and any other third party candidate who might pull non-Trumpist votes needs to not run this time. in any normal election, i would not call for this, but this asshole must be defeated at the polls, and every fraction of a percentage point counts.
 

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he's probably going to lose some independents and others who don't want to be in a cult led by a fool. i hope that it's enough for him to be defeated. i'm really hoping that the Democrats make electability the top priority for choosing a candidate. their candidate will be the only one with any chance to defeat Trumpists, so they need to choose very carefully. also, Jill Stein and any other third party candidate who might pull non-Trumpist votes needs to not run this time. in any normal election, i would not call for this, but this asshole must be defeated at the polls, and every fraction of a percentage point counts.

I would look at any 3rd party candidate running in 2020 with a jaundiced eye. I would not put it past Trump and his goons to encourage a 3rd party candidate to come in and steal votes. I would ignore any 3rd party candidate running in 2020 on that score alone, even if I liked the platform. We are down to the short hairs of defending the Constitution and Republic from the goon squad at this point.
 

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Trump seems to make every play and speech directly to his base. Some people say it is 35%, some say 45%, but is that enough to get him another term? Can he rely on Dems drifting away from the Dem candidate if he/she is not the one they wanted as they did in 2016? What do you think?

First Democrats didn't drift away. Hillary Received 89% of the Democratic base vote vs. 88% of the Republican base vote Trump received. 90% being average. Obama received 92% of the democratic base vote in 2012 vs. 93% of the republican base vote for Romney. More republicans deflected Trump than Democrats did Clinton. Trump won on the independent vote. This brings me back to your question, can Trump win with his base only? No way is the answer. What percentage of the electorate that make up each party's base vote changes all the time, it's dynamic.

In Nov 2012, Democrats made up 35% of the electorate, Republicans 30%. Independents made up 33%. The democrats had a built in 5 point advantage. In Nov of 2016 that advantage was chopped to three points 30% Democratic, 27% Republican. Independents shot up to 40%. Trump winning independents 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting third party was the deciding factor. Not democrats drifting away from Hillary.

I peg Trump's base at 40%. In 2016 independents disliked Hillary much more than Trump although half disliked both major party candidates. The trick for 2020 is for the Democrats to choose a candidate that isn't as disliked by independents as much as Trump. that seems almost impossible, but the Democrats managed to do just that in 2016. Now in 2020 the Democrats have the advantage that a lot of independents have soured on Trump. I don't think he'll be able to match that 46% from independents he received in 2016 in 2020. That is unless the Democrats nominate another Hillary Clinton type candidate.

Another thing is in 2016, Hillary was the well known candidate with all the baggage. In 2020 that candidate will be Trump. Independents knew how Hillary would govern, being well known, perhaps too well known and said no way. They voted Trump and he's in the White House today. Independents didn't know how Trump would govern. Didn't know much at all about him. He was an unknown. He won't be in 2020. You'll have role reversals then.

No, looking at the numbers all around, no way can Trump win reelection. The Democratic Party is still the larger of the two major parties. Because of Trump's unsavory antics and his raunchy personality, they have regained their lost numbers. Today they stand at 32% of the electorate with the Republicans at 26% That advantage is even higher than it was in 2012. Independents don't like Trump, with a decent candidate that can attract independent voters, I wouldn't be surprised if that candidate received 55% of the vote.

There's a couple of candidates on the Democratic horizon if nominated that might let Trump back in the game. So the ball is in the democrats court. 2020 it the democrat's election to lose, but then again, so too was 2016.
 

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Trump can not win in 2020, he should be smart enough to know this, and he should get off the stage voluntarily .

OMG I partially agree, ****, the epocalypse is well nigh!
 

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I would look at any 3rd party candidate running in 2020 with a jaundiced eye. I would not put it past Trump and his goons to encourage a 3rd party candidate to come in and steal votes. I would ignore any 3rd party candidate running in 2020 on that score alone, even if I liked the platform. We are down to the short hairs of defending the Constitution and Republic from the goon squad at this point.

i don't disagree. i do feel bad about it, though, as i detest the artificially limited two party system. we're so far outside of normal at this point that priorities have changed, however.
 

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Don't forget about the Russians, useful idiots like Trump don't come along every day. They'll be doing everything they can to keep him in office, and have a proven track record given 2016.

They will but apart from his base who have already decided who to support, the Russians won't be fooling anyone this time around. Instead of reports that the Russians 'fooled' us in 2016 it will be the Russians 'are fooling' us in 2020. When blind support of Trump and spamming Pepe memes equates to being called a tool of the Russians it will become a much less fashionable exercise.
 

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Trump seems to make every play and speech directly to his base. Some people say it is 35%, some say 45%, but is that enough to get him another term? Can he rely on Dems drifting away from the Dem candidate if he/she is not the one they wanted as they did in 2016? What do you think?

Trump is going to be facing some big problems that will lower his base by at least 20% by whatever it is now (likely around 35%).

We will be either facing or in a recession. This has been predicted by almost all economic analysts (recession starting late 2019 or early 2020). GDP is expected to be down to 2.3% by 2020 and to 1.8% by 2021, meaning that he will no longer be able to beat on his chest about how good the economy is. Unemployment will definitely be higher than what it is now (presently 3.7%) due to a world-wide slow down that is occurring.

In addition, this Trade War that is presently being fought can only be a negative catalyst with the only question being how much worse. The trade war will affect both China and us and when both of the 2 biggest economies in the world are suffering, there is no place where things can be good.

This without mentioning that every single day Trump creates chaos and unhappiness as well as fear and 4 years of that will tire everyone, including his base. Even they are likely to turn toward some other Republican (such as Kasich) for direction. No one can support a liar forever.

All of this is very highly likely to happen by the next election. It is too late to stop it.
 

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Hell no Trump is to close to Putin i think even the ignorant people can see ..........
 

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Trump seems to make every play and speech directly to his base. Some people say it is 35%, some say 45%, but is that enough to get him another term? Can he rely on Dems drifting away from the Dem candidate if he/she is not the one they wanted as they did in 2016? What do you think?

No and he would not have won in 2016 without cheating by defrauding voters and using the Russian GRU for his attack dogs.
 
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