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California Recall Live Updates: Voters Determine Gavin Newsom’s Fate

Tender Branson

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On Election Day, voters are deciding whether to remove the governor from office and, if so, who should replace him.

merlin_194691948_a9180d12-531c-4070-b077-ce712a21a7f8-superJumbo.jpg

Voters handed in ballots at a vote center in San Francisco’s City Hall on Monday.
Credit: Jim Wilson/The New York Times


Post live updates and your thoughts and predictions here.
 

Tender Branson

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My prediction:

56.3% KEEP Gov. Newsom in office
43.7% Recall him from office

Turnout: 60-62% of registered voters (22.5 million) - or ca. 13-14 million ballots cast
 

Tender Branson

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BTW:

CA counts votes very slowly.

It will take 5 (!) weeks until all votes are counted and the election gets certified.
 

radioman

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On Election Day, voters are deciding whether to remove the governor from office and, if so, who should replace him.



Post live updates and your thoughts and predictions here.
Voted against the recall, and voted for former SD mayor Faulconer as a back up.
Newsom.....whom I don't care for.....holds on to the governorship.
GOP can find and nominate someone to run against Newsom in 14 months.
 

Common Sense 1

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This should be a easy win for the democrats who out number the republicans by a large number of registered voters.

People do have the choice to leave the state and that is happening.
 

radioman

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BTW:

CA counts votes very slowly.

It will take 5 (!) weeks until all votes are counted and the election gets certified.
Yeah, but most votes...95%...will be tallied within a few days.
Big state, lots of voters.
 

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My prediction:

56.3% KEEP Gov. Newsom in office
43.7% Recall him from office

Turnout: 60-62% of registered voters (22.5 million) - or ca. 13-14 million ballots cast

You really think that voter turnout for a special election will rival that of a presidential election?

The 2016 presidential election had 14.1 million voters. This election will have less than half that
 

Juggernaut74

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electoral-vote.com had a pretty good write up this morning on the absentee ballots filed so far.


”And since we're at it, we might as well run the numbers one last time. There have now been 8,722,954 ballots submitted; 4,509,992 by registered Democrats; 2,233,539 by registered Republicans, and 1,979,423 by independents/third-party registrants. The last five polls of the race, all from the last week, report an average of 88% of Democrats want to keep the Governor, an average of 85% of Republicans want to toss him overboard, and an average of 53% of independents/third-party voters want to keep him. If we assume that the votes already received comport with those basic percentages, then Newsom has 5,352,918 votes to retain (61.4%) versus 3,370,036 to recall (38.6%), or a cushion of 1,982,882 votes. There are only 3,115,746 registered Republicans left in the entire state, with 2,648,384 of those theoretically being pro-recall. That means that either (1) at least 74.8% of the remaining pro-recall Republicans have to vote today, accompanied by absolutely nobody else, or (2) the polls (six or seven of them in the last week) have to all be way, way, way off. If one of those two things does not come to pass, then Newsom will survive, and Elder will go back to his snake oilery.”
 

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Sadly, we all know what the results will be in this solid blue state.

But at least it felt good marking my ballot for Mr. Elder.
You actually want someone else to become guv with a vote tally of +/- 20%?
Cali's recall system needs re-vamping.
It would be better to have the top vote getter in the recall.....Elder, probably.... go up against Newsom in a head-to-head contest.
Elder will have an opportunity to unseat Newsom in Nov 2022.
 

Tender Branson

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You really think that voter turnout for a special election will rival that of a presidential election?

The 2016 presidential election had 14.1 million voters. This election will have less than half that

Nah.

There are already 9 million returned ballots as of today, and there are still ballots coming in for another week (if postmarked by today) to be counted.

And there’s the Election Day voters today as well, voting in precincts.

It may probably not be 13 or 14 million, but certainly 12 or more.

The fact that the recall has high ballot returns is because of 2 reasons:

A) between 2016 and 2020, CA started to send mail ballots to every registered voter, making it more convenient to vote.

B) the recall generates high emotions on both sides, increasing enthusiasm to vote.
 

Tender Branson

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There’s also a 3rd reason why turnout is pretty good:

C) Between 2016 and 2020, the number of registered voters in CA increased a lot because of some sort of automatic voter registration once citizens turn 18. Also: 16/17-year olds are pre-registered to vote, meaning they don’t need to register for an election, after turning 18.

That is already the case in most European countries, but not in many US states. There are a couple ten million US citizens above 18, who are eligible, but not automatically registered to vote. A tragedy.
 

The Mark

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There’s also a 3rd reason why turnout is pretty good:

C) Between 2016 and 2020, the number of registered voters in CA increased a lot because of some sort of automatic voter registration once citizens turn 18. Also: 16/17-year olds are pre-registered to vote, meaning they don’t need to register for an election, after turning 18.

That is already the case in most European countries, but not in many US states. There are a couple ten million US citizens above 18, who are eligible, but not automatically registered to vote. A tragedy.
I personally hold the opinion that voting registration should be automatic at (or as this does, before) age 18.

Additionally, it should be codified into law, if necessary the constitution, that the ability/right/whatever to vote cannot be removed until you die or cease being a citizen.
 

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That is what happens when you want to remove a highly popular Governor.
I'm not sure Newsom is all that popular.
It's just that his recall opponents were even less popular than Gavin.
 

Gimmesometruth

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This should be a easy win for the democrats who out number the republicans by a large number of registered voters.
Which shows it was a stupid thing for the GQP to attempt, not only has it cost themselves millions, there is a Guv election next year. They blew their wad prematurely.
 

Hamish Howl

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lol, republicans. Time to start ugly-crying about election fraud.
 

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WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAa

Republicants fails again. Hucking Filarious.
 

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lol, republicans. Time to start ugly-crying about election fraud.
Ha-ha.....it's already happening......


Looks like this will be the GOP shtick from now on.
Complaining "We wuz robbed...." before the votes are even tallied.
Yet another part of Donald Trump's legacy.
 

Hamish Howl

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Ha-ha.....it's already happening......


Looks like this will be the GOP shtick from now on.
Complaining "We wuz robbed...." before the votes are even tallied.
Yet another part of Donald Trump's legacy.

If they want to look like whiny losers, I'm okay with it.
 

Hatuey

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Republicans are turning church antics into everyday politics. The whole world is against me, but I survived to tell the tale, and here is exactly what happened...

Suddenly, methheads with stolen mail and drunk Irish-American women are drinking in court with Ghouliani.

What happened to us?
 

OscarLevant

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My prediction:

56.3% KEEP Gov. Newsom in office
43.7% Recall him from office

Turnout: 60-62% of registered voters (22.5 million) - or ca. 13-14 million ballots cast


I think it was 67 to 33. Newsom kicked his butt.
 

yankintx

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Looking very bad for the Republican crowd.

Newsom leads 67% to 33% with 9 million votes counted.

That is what happens when you want to remove a highly popular Governor.

Serves them right.
The Republicans chose a terrible nominee. They handed this to the Dems on a platter.
 
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