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By how much % will Trump lose to or beat Clinton by in November?

By how much will Trump lose to or beat Clinton by in November?

  • He will lose to Clinton by anywhere between less than 1% to 5%.

    Votes: 11 10.9%

  • He will lose to Clinton by anywhere between 5% to 10% to Clinton.

    Votes: 35 34.7%

  • He will lose to Clinton by anywhere between 10% to 15% to Clinton.

    Votes: 17 16.8%

  • He will lose to Clinton by 15% or more.

    Votes: 7 6.9%

  • He will beat Clinton by anywhere between less than 1% to 5%

    Votes: 8 7.9%

  • He will beat Clinton by anywhere between 5% to 10%

    Votes: 5 5.0%

  • He will beat Clinton by anywhere between 10% to 15%

    Votes: 2 2.0%

  • He will beat Clinton by 15% or more.

    Votes: 1 1.0%

  • A 3rd party candidate will win the presidency this year.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I don't know.

    Votes: 15 14.9%
  • Total voters
    101
Fiddytree said:
She may get him with maybe 3-4%. As much as Republicans have been fighting, the vast majority come around to support their nominee and some stay home.
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Which is also why most of the polls right now are likely inflating the votes for Hillary. These are registered voter polls that tend to overpredict for democrats (who are less likely to vote). Likely voter polls do indeed have the race "much tighter."
 
Taylor said:
Which is also why most of the polls right now are likely inflating the votes for Hillary. These are registered voter polls that tend to overpredict for democrats (who are less likely to vote). Likely voter polls do indeed have the race "much tighter."
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The convention bump (for both parties) is a direct result of amped-up potential partisans being more willing to answer phone calls about polls, because they are more energized about politics.
 
Painter said:
A long time ago I predicted Trump would win the Presidency by a small margin.
I still support that prediction.

I also predict that if my first prediction is wrong and that if Trump is polling badly before the election that Trump will drop out in the final week.
I say this because the man is a quitter for sure, but
he would rather die than be a loser.
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If that's true he'll be dead before the election.

:lol:
 
I'm going to go huge on this one, and say that Trump will lose by 10-15% of the popular vote. Could be more. He'll get walloped with EVs
 
Taylor said:
The average of the RV polls is about 8. The average of the likely voter polls is 4.3. That is a sizable difference.
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The ABC poll also has likely voters and a margin of 8 even though the RV is the only one listed there. That brings the difference to less than 3 points, which is not a sizable difference.
 
I think it will be more of a repudiation of Trump than any love for Hillary. But since so many Republicans will sit on their hands or vote 3rd party..she will win large.
 
Fiddytree said:
The convention bump (for both parties) is a direct result of amped-up potential partisans being more willing to answer phone calls about polls, because they are more energized about politics.
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The LA Times tracking poll is designed to control for this by tracking the same voters throughout the election cycle (thus, they claim, any shifts are due to actual changes in voter preferences). Not surprisingly, this poll hasn't been as volatile as others, but did show some movement toward Trump following the RNC and is now shifting back toward Clinton after the DNC.

One interesting finding was that right after the RNC, Trump and Clinton had huge (double digit) leads among older and younger voters, respectively - but this has basically evaporated following the DNC. Most of the change seems to come from female voters. Would love more details on what exactly has made Trump more palatable (or Clinton less palatable) to younger women while at the same time made Clinton more palatable (or Trump less palatable) to older women. Can of course make lots of guesses.
 
Anagram said:
Well they asked in the very first question there how likely they are to vote. Your link doesn't have the crosstabs, but they obviously have the information about how likely voters feel.
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In other words, you have no idea where the numbers come from, whether they refer to a 2-way race or a 4-way race, or what the margin of error is on the sub-sample - but somehow feel justified in averaging it across real LV polls.
 
Taylor said:
In other words, you have no idea where the numbers come from, whether they refer to a 2-way race or a 4-way race, or what the margin of error is on the sub-sample - but somehow feel justified in averaging it across real LV polls.
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I know exactly where the numbers came from. They asked the likely voter question and who they were going to vote for. We have the percentage of likely voters so if you really want me to I can calculate the margin of error on that poll for you.

Here. 538 has the crosstabs listed. So you can see for yourself. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
 
Anagram said:
I know exactly where the numbers came from. They asked the likely voter question and who they were going to vote for.
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Okay, so we have a random national sample of 1,002 adults. 81% say they are certain to vote and 9% say the will probably vote. Show me exactly how we derive likely voters.

Anagram said:
Here. 538 has the crosstabs listed. So you can see for yourself. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
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Well, I can certainly see for myself that these numbers differ from what you just quoted from the Washington Post (who sponsored the poll) - "among likely voters, the Democratic nominee leads by 51 percent to 44 percent".

Now, it's suddenly 47 percent to 39 percent!
 
Taylor said:
Okay, so we have a random national sample of 1,002 adults. 81% say they are certain to vote and 9% say the will probably vote. Show me exactly how we derive likely voters.
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89% likely/certain to vote. 815 RV. 815*.89= 725 voters. With a sufficiently large population, (which the entire U.S. certainly is) 725 polled results in a margin of error of 3.64 with a 95% confidence interval.


Well, I can certainly see for myself that these numbers differ from what you just quoted from the Washington Post (who sponsored the poll) - "among likely voters, the Democratic nominee leads by 51 percent to 44 percent".

Now, it's suddenly 47 percent to 39 percent!
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The first one is a two way matchup, 538 uses the four way for its calculations.

Additionally, in between our posts a new Likely Voter survey has come out showing Hillary up 13%. That evens up the LV/RV averages.
 
Anagram said:
89% likely/certain to vote. 815 RV. 815*.89= 725 voters. With a sufficiently large population, (which the entire U.S. certainly is) 725 polled results in a margin of error of 3.64 with a 95% confidence interval.
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But your link says 682, not 725.

The real margin of error is higher than 3.64. The pollsters estimate 3.5 for their full sample of 1,002 and 4.0 for their registered voter sample. Online calculators don't do the job because polls like this one don't use standard random sampling procedures.
 
Taylor said:
But your link says 682, not 725.

The real margin of error is higher than 3.64. The pollsters estimate 3.5 for their full sample of 1,002 and 4.0 for their registered voter sample. Online calculators don't do the job because polls like this one don't use standard random sampling procedures.
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You're right about the MoE adjustment, due to it not being a random sample but it's not going to be a big one. The weighting process in public surveys doesn't change the MoE by more than a percentage point generally.

As to why the numbers don't match up, maybe they used the even more stringent certain to vote to determine likely voters. We don't have the full crosstabs to show exactly how they got to 682, but I see no reason whatsoever not to take them at their word. Since they have information about who's a likely voter, and since they have the information about how they would vote, we absolutely 100% know they have the information for the likely voter numbers they put in the press release.
 
jamesrage said:
I think the second the republicans nominated Trump they gift wrapped the election and handed it to Clinton along with male strippers and a collection of fine pant suits for her victory party....
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Heh

I don't think the result is quite that certain, in part because Trump has defied many current expectations of electoral politics, and yes there are lots of people who strongly dislike Clinton.

That said, I find it highly amusing to watch Republicans and conservatives repeatedly hope that Trump will finally clean up his act. He usually manages to stay quiet for a few days and read from the teleprompter, then completely loses his mind because George Clooney bad-mouthed Trump in a tweet. Or, because the media ignored him for a few days.
 
I frankly have no idea.

At a guess, I think/hope Trump will not become president.

But this election cycle has been so insane I'm not sure or even partially convinced about anything.
 
Taylor said:
Which is also why most of the polls right now are likely inflating the votes for Hillary. These are registered voter polls that tend to overpredict for democrats (who are less likely to vote). Likely voter polls do indeed have the race "much tighter."
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Not really.... Trump is just crashing...


The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly | FiveThirtyEight

plane-going-down.jpg
 
Taylor said:
Your story/article is irrelevant to the point that was made.
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I see, you are you not believing the polls..... I think we heard this from the Romney camp right up until, in fact, after the election was called...



Sorry, I realize that sometimes reality is tough to take...

Everything looks fine.jpg
 
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