Brexit: What has the UK gained and lost?

[Cardinal]

It's a week later and now that that things have settled down a bit (and by "things" I mean "my stock portofiolio here in the United States") Leave voters woke up with an enormous hangover next to a fat stripper they don't remember, thinking "Oh God, what have I done?" They got busy and decided to find out what their awful life decision just cost them. After learning, many appeared to be miffed.

Anger over 'Bregret' as Leave voters say they thought UK would stay in EU | UK Politics | News | The Independent

So what did UK citizens lose?

1. UK citizens could vacation, live, and work anywhere in the EU. And the best part is that if you liked where you went, you could just...stay there. No problems. UK retirees are known for settling down in the warmer areas, such as Portugal, Spain, France and Greece. In fact the ease with which UK citizens could just go, live and work anywhere they wanted is as familiar to them as open travel is for those in the US moving through the states. Better than the United States, however, is the free healthcare you could expect anywhere you happen to be. UK citizens are also protected outside the EU by having access to an EU consulate regardless of whether a UK one is available.

2. UK expats may have to come home, 4.5 million of them to be exact. Remember those retirees and whoever else getting away to Portugal, Spain, France and Greece? Their status is in limbo, but under current EU laws the only reason they're allowed there in the first place was because of the EU.

EU Facts: What does leaving the EU mean for expats? 

3. Jobs. UK's tariff-less exports to the single market support an estimated 3.1 million jobs in the UK, while the EU also subsidize UK's agriculture sector. The estimated number of jobs if Brexit became just a bad dream would increase by as much as 790,000 through 2030.

4. Equal consumer protection throughout the EU. All EU sellers are required to abide by a level of transparency and fair treatment regardless of the nationality of the customer. Also, say goodbye roaming charges.

5. The UK relies daily on the EU criminal justice system in order to crack down on terrorism and human trafficking.

6. Businesses. Already HSBC, vodaphone and Easy Jet are discussing moving to the European homeland in order to still have access to the tariff-less single largest market on earth.

According to 71% of all members of the Confederation of British Influence (CBI), and 67 per cent of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the EU has had an overall positive impact on their business.

The CBI estimates that the net benefit of EU membership is worth 4-5% of GDP to the UK, or £62bn-£78bn per year.

In 2014, the ONS reported that the EU, which is the world’s biggest economy, accounted for 44.6 per cent of all UK exports of goods and services, and 53.2 per cent of the UK’s imports of goods and services.

Meanwhile, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) shows the overall contribution to our economy from exports to the EU was £187 billion last year, and that it could rise by almost half again to £277 billion a year by 2030.

7. Influence. The UK, tariffs or not (and it will definitely be facing tons of tariffs moving forward), is going to still have to do business with the EU. The EU is the world's largest economy, but the UK is going to business with them on the EU's terms. The UK will have no vote. Also, the UK will have significantly less influence with regards to military, judicial and criminal justice topics. Also it will no longer be the "pipeline" of influence between Washington and the EU that it is now. That doesn't mean London is getting shut out by Washington, of course, but it will mean that the US will have to spread out its ties more broadly, leaving London less centralized.

continued....

 

[Cardinal]

8. Scotland. Scotland has made it clear that its interests would be better served being inside the EU and exposed to its tariff-less single market.

9. Purchasing power. As the pound is down to $1.34 from $1.47, and economists say that it still has a ways to go. There is one very simple, glaring reason for this: article 50 hasn't been invoked yet. Although no reversal of the referendum is being seriously considered, invoking article 50 will be the second shock to the pound and the markets.

HSBC 'to move jobs to Paris if UK leaves single market' - BBC News
UK firms mull moves in wake of Brexit
What has the European Union ever done for us? | UK Politics | News | The Independent

So what new freedoms did UK citizens gain?

1. Control of their borders (immigration). Wrong.

One of the key figures in engineering the Brexit said the number of people coming to Britain will not go down – and said Vote Leave never promised it would.

Daniel Hannan, Conservative, made the admission to BBC Newsnight presenter Evan Davis, who said the free movement of labour was ‘completely at odds with what the public think they’ve just voted for’.

Hannan said withdrawing from the EU would remove ‘legal entitlements to live in other countries, to vote in other countries and to claim welfare and to have the same university tuition’.

Brexit won't reduce immigration, explains Vote Leave campaigner | Metro News

Also, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has made it absolutely clear that there would be "no nuances" in any future trade deal with the UK, stating the "freedom of movement" would be a factor in any future deal.

2. A better NHS. A little bit, but less than half of what people were told.

Perhaps no promise was more audacious — and mendacious, critics say — than the £350-million-a-week claim. Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London who was the frontman of the Brexit campaign, toured Britain in a bus emblazoned with the slogan: “We send the E.U. £350 million a week, let’s fund our N.H.S. instead,” a reference to the country’s widely revered National Health Service.

Hours after proclaiming “independence day” for Britain, Nigel Farage, the leader of the fiercely anti-European U.K. Independence Party, conceded that the £350 million figure was a “mistake.” Asked by the BBC on Sunday about the spending pledge, Iain Duncan Smith, a former Conservative Party leader who campaigned for Brexit, said the Leave side had merely promised “to spend the lion’s share of that money” on the health service.

The shift was perhaps unsurprising, since the £350 million “independence dividend” never stood up to scrutiny. It excluded money returned to Britain through rebates and money that Britain spent to subsidize its farmers and poorer regions, according to the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies. The institute put the true figure at about £150 million.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/w...me-brexit-campaigners-begin-backpedaling.html

Also, 10% of doctors and 4% of nurses are from the EU so you can look at a likely manpower shortage.

https://www.theguardian.com/healthc...28/nhs-workers-brexit-mean-job-health-service

Obviously this is not completely comprehensive. Facts are still filtering out, though nothing too cogent as the UK's government is in complete turmoil, especially as the Conservative party seems to be playing hot potato with the issue of who is to be Prime Minister. Essentially nobody wants the spot since their entire tenure will be dominated by the issue of changing the entire course of their country for a tedious and more complex one. Cameron might be a fool who can never show his face in public again, and resigning was perhaps the smartest thing he's ever done.

 

[fmw]

What they gained was freedom from a corrupt, overbearing, over-regulating external government. That was the whole point of it.

 

[blaxshep]

What they gained was freedom from a corrupt, overbearing, over-regulating external government. That was the whole point of it.

And well worth it.

 

[Cardinal]

What they gained was freedom from a corrupt, overbearing, over-regulating external government. That was the whole point of it.

I provided a couple links and facts to support my position. Can you?

 

[fmw]

I provided a couple links and facts to support my position. Can you?

Sure but I'm too lazy to do it. I didn't come to my opinion without support.

 

[Cardinal]

Sure but I'm too lazy to do it. I didn't come to my opinion without support.

Yes you did. And I know this because not one person can demonstrate a single, tangible way in which UK citizens have more freedom. You are uninformed, and the reason for this is because, as you said, you're lazy.

 

[blaxshep]

Yes you did. And I know this because not one person can demonstrate a single, tangible way in which UK citizens have more freedom. You are uninformed, and the reason for this is because, as you said, you're lazy.

They can but high wattage toasters now. Well worth it!

 

[ocean515]

I provided a couple links and facts to support my position. Can you?

Germany, for example exports far more to the UK, than the UK exports to Germany. Shutting the door on the UK would have a significant impact on Germany's economy.

Brexit Vote Brings Germany-U.K. Trade Relationship Into Question - WSJ

As you qualified in your post, there are lots of projections, and little fact. It remains to be seen how this will play out in the long run.

 

[fmw]

Yes you did. And I know this because not one person can demonstrate a single, tangible way in which UK citizens have more freedom. You are uninformed, and the reason for this is because, as you said, you're lazy.

Well, that's one opinion to be sure.

 

[Cardinal]

Germany, for example exports far more to the UK, than the UK exports to Germany. Shutting the door on the UK would have a significant impact on Germany's economy.

Brexit Vote Brings Germany-U.K. Trade Relationship Into Question - WSJ

As you qualified in your post, there are lots of projections, and little fact. It remains to be seen how this will play out in the long run.

The benefits I listed weren't "projections." They were actual, tangible benefits.

 

[ocean515]

The benefits I listed weren't "projections." They were actual, tangible benefits.

Well, they were more like assumptions overall.

So will citizens of the UK no longer be able to vacation anywhere in the EU? It appears it will be more difficult to get a job in the EU, but lots of people outside of the EU get jobs there. Retirees? I have friends who have retired in the EU, so that door isn't shut. Will it require more red tape? Probably.

Is the EU going to cut off it's nose and not sell billions to the UK? Do you think Audi, Mercedes and Porsche are going to sit quietly as the UK market is shut off to them?

Lots of things are fluid, as all the assumptions prove.

 

[blaxshep]

Well, they were more like assumptions overall.

So will citizens of the UK no longer be able to vacation anywhere in the EU? It appears it will be more difficult to get a job in the EU, but lots of people outside of the EU get jobs there. Retirees? I have friends who have retired in the EU, so that door isn't shut. Will it require more red tape? Probably.

Is the EU going to cut off it's nose and not sell billions to the UK? Do you think Audi, Mercedes and Porsche are going to sit quietly as the UK market is shut off to them?

Lots of things are fluid, as all the assumptions prove.

The Liberals will cut them off for defying the Fourth Reich and it will be the fault of the people that voted for independence and freedom.

 

[ocean515]

The Liberals will cut them off for defying the Fourth Reich and it will be the fault of the people that voted for independence and freedom.

Perhaps. Yet, I've read a number of articles involving business leaders in the EU and their concern for the loss of exports to the UK. I read an article earlier today that German exports to the UK are twice what they import from it. That's big dollars.

I think it's likely the economic pull from one of the largest economies in the region will overcome the bruised and frightened egos of the bureaucrats in Brussels.

 

[Cardinal]

Well, they were more like assumptions overall.

So will citizens of the UK no longer be able to vacation anywhere in the EU? It appears it will be more difficult to get a job in the EU, but lots of people outside of the EU get jobs there. Retirees? I have friends who have retired in the EU, so that door isn't shut. Will it require more red tape? Probably.

Those were not assumptions, those were benefits written out in EU rules. They are no more "assumptions" than laws clearly spelled out here in the United States. They are facts.

Yes, they can vacation in the EU, but now there will be restrictions on the amount of time they can stay as well as increased scrutiny of people moving abroad. Getting a job in the rest of the EU will be significantly more difficult. You must prove that nobody in the country is unable to fulfill the tasks of the position you want to hold. And yes, you can retire there but the number of restrictions and red tape multiply. The whole point is about freedom of movement and easing of restrictions which results in people and jobs flowing to their desired locations with absolute ease. That freedom is what made things incredibly attractive for citizens of the EU.

Is the EU going to cut off it's nose and not sell billions to the UK? Do you think Audi, Mercedes and Porsche are going to sit quietly as the UK market is shut off to them?

Addressed multiple times in detail in the OP.

Lots of things are fluid, as all the assumptions prove.

Gibberish.

 

[poweRob]

The Liberals will cut them off for defying the Fourth Reich and it will be the fault of the people that voted for independence and freedom.

Nice, nice... now one more time with extra drama and it'll be a wrap.

 

[SailaWay]

Euro Union nation has LOST TRILLIONS with MERKELS Horrendous error.. will she be thrown in jail?

each and every day since the vote.. Uk stock has beat france and germany each day with germany the worst each day

canada will benefit greatly from this as well as america with trading strong with UK.. same with austrailia

for the WEEK after the vote.... UK GAINED 2.6%....all the rest had a minus... France 5.1%.. Germany 5.6%..Spain 8.1%..Italy 9.8%.. Ireland 11.7%...Greece 12.3%... and each of the nordic states in the euro union lost and these will vote to secede from the union and the reason why they lost less..

WHAT a MONSTROUS ERROR by MERKEL...!!!

and how the very young voted shows this issue was a wisdom test for voters.. 75% of 18-25 voted to remain in union which means the others more experienced and wiser voted in a landslide to exit

and the stock markets proves who are the wiinners and losers and also shows if you let unwise people vote a nation WILL BE THE LOSER.. so soon there will be a world wide wisdom test for voters and no more liberalism..

THIS also will bring te conservative states to separate from the liberals states.... WELCOME TO THE CONSERVATIVE STATES OF AMERICA

 

[poweRob]

Euro Union nation has LOST TRILLIONS with MERKELS Horrendous error.. will she be thrown in jail?

each and every day since the vote.. Uk stock has beat france and germany each day with germany the worst each day

canada will benefit greatly from this as well as america with trading strong with UK.. same with austrailia

for the WEEK after the vote.... UK GAINED 2.6%....all the rest had a minus... France 5.1%.. Germany 5.6%..Spain 8.1%..Italy 9.8%.. Ireland 11.7%...Greece 12.3%... and each of the nordic states in the euro union lost and these will vote to secede from the union and the reason why they lost less..

WHAT a MONSTROUS ERROR by MERKEL...!!!

and how the very young voted shows this issue was a wisdom test for voters.. 75% of 18-25 voted to remain in union which means the others more experienced and wiser voted in a landslide to exit

and the stock markets proves who are the wiinners and losers and also shows if you let unwise people vote a nation WILL BE THE LOSER.. so soon there will be a world wide wisdom test for voters and no more liberalism..

THIS also will bring te conservative states to separate from the liberals states.... WELCOME TO THE CONSERVATIVE STATES OF AMERICA

Aaannnnnnd scene.

 

[ocean515]

Those were not assumptions, those were benefits written out in EU rules. They are no more "assumptions" than laws clearly spelled out here in the United States. They are facts.

Yes, they can vacation in the EU, but now there will be restrictions on the amount of time they can stay as well as increased scrutiny of people moving abroad. Getting a job in the rest of the EU will be significantly more difficult. You must prove that nobody in the country is unable to fulfill the tasks of the position you want to hold. And yes, you can retire there but the number of restrictions and red tape multiply. The whole point is about freedom of movement and easing of restrictions which results in people and jobs flowing to their desired locations with absolute ease. That freedom is what made things incredibly attractive for citizens of the EU.



Addressed multiple times in detail in the OP.



Gibberish.

Thank you for your opinion. I consider it nothing but gibberish at this point, so we are on even ground.

 

[jonesalice34]

What do you think is going to be with property markets in the UK and the EU?
I believe in the slight fall of prices in England and Spain. Spain will suffer a wane of demand for real estate from British buyers who were extremely active in this market. And in London the weak pound will play its part to attract new foreign investors. A sad thing that common people will suffer at the end.
A good piece on the topic https://tranio.com/united-kingdom/news/real-estate-markets-could-wobble-as-uk-votes-to-leave-the-eu_5152/
"the real estate market in Britain may benefit from heightened foreign interest"

 

[DA60]

One thing they have gained - for now. Is a stock market boom. The FTSE is way higher then before the Brexit vote and keeps on climbing.

I said it before and I will say it again, the potential negative effect of Brexit on Britain was WAY overrated.