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Brexit Result?

Brexit Result?


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What do you think the result of the EU Membership Referendum will be tomorrow? Personally, I see that the polling' pretty tight, with Leave just slightly ahead, but often the undecideds break for the status quo so I'm thinking Remain wins by a hair.
 

joG

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What do you think the result of the EU Membership Referendum will be tomorrow? Personally, I see that the polling' pretty tight, with Leave just slightly ahead, but often the undecideds break for the status quo so I'm thinking Remain wins by a hair.

Like with any toss of coin, I might be wrong. ;)
 

KevinKohler

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Leaving isn't part pf the plan.



They'll stay.
 

clownboy

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No "I don't know, it will be close" option. Here's what we do know, whichever side wins it will be very close. We know that whichever side wins, almost half the voting population will still want the other result, and they're not going to change their minds even though they lost a vote.
 

Beaudreaux

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Although there's a heck of a lot of emotion on the pro-Brexit side, I feel that common sense, cooler heads, and economic self preservation will prevail at the end of the day.
 

Ben K.

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As close as it is, you can only go by previous experience and default to the status quo when it comes to a referendum.

And, what's the weather forecast?
 

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What do you think the result of the EU Membership Referendum will be tomorrow? Personally, I see that the polling' pretty tight, with Leave just slightly ahead, but often the undecideds break for the status quo so I'm thinking Remain wins by a hair.

when it comes to massive national changes like this, inertia is a significant factor. i haven't followed this story closely, but my guess is that there's a degree of "what will happen if we actually do this?" that might tip it to remain. i'm curious to see how it turns out, though.
 

Hawkeye10

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I dont think that "leave" is far enough ahead to overcome the force of last minute fear of change motivating people to choose "stay". THe "stay" forces have been counting on this, and I dont think they are wrong.

I am guessing stay 55/45.
 

DarkWizard12

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the leave campaign was gaining serious momentum untill the unfortunate shooting. The fact that the leave campaign didn't immediately collapse shows they have staying power. Whatever the result, I think there will be another referendum, especially if the public does vote for leave by a slim margin.

This is going to be a 51/49 poll, just you all see.
 

Carjosse

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No "I don't know, it will be close" option. Here's what we do know, whichever side wins it will be very close. We know that whichever side wins, almost half the voting population will still want the other result, and they're not going to change their minds even though they lost a vote.

No, but it will silence it for one generation if the Quebec referendums are anything to go by.
 

Carjosse

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I say going to say that remain will win mainly because of their momentum the last few days and last minute panic for the status quo. People are naturally risk averse, and voting leave is a vote for the unknown.
 

Hawkeye10

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No, but it will silence it for one generation if the Quebec referendums are anything to go by.

And not the only one. On big questions like this often there is only one chance per generation to make a change, we are talking 20-30 years in between. We can not live well in turmoil, so we instinctively avoid it.
 

Aberration

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From my experience Brits very much hold to "better the devil you know".

I think they should exit. I dont think they will though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

JANFU

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What do you think the result of the EU Membership Referendum will be tomorrow? Personally, I see that the polling' pretty tight, with Leave just slightly ahead, but often the undecideds break for the status quo so I'm thinking Remain wins by a hair.

Did not see your poll on this.Can you close my thread pls.
 

Carjosse

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And not the only one. On big questions like this often there is only one chance per generation to make a change, we are talking 20-30 years in between. We can not live well in turmoil, so we instinctively avoid it.

Also learning from Quebec, after a while the only people who supported independence will be dying. That is what is happening in Quebec, the older generation, the one that supported Quebec sovereignty, is now dying off and if there was to be another referendum for some reason the No side would readily win.
 

Hawkeye10

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Also learning from Quebec, after a while the only people who supported independence will be dying. That is what is happening in Quebec, the older generation, the one that supported Quebec sovereignty, is now dying off and if there was to be another referendum for some reason the No side would readily win.

Ya but you cant predict which way it will go, I saw reporting that the old want to stay and the young want to go, which of true is the opposite of what had been expected all those years ago when the EU was being put together. The theory was at the time that all they needed to do was was to get the SOB up and running and it would FOR SURE show everyone how great it was (thus the shortcuts on the foundation which are now threatening its existence) , no one would even consider leaving.

That is not what happened.
 

Carjosse

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Ya but you cant predict which way it will go, I saw reporting that the old want to stay and the young want to go, which of true is the opposite of what had been expected all those years ago when the EU was being put together. The theory was at the time that all they needed was to get the SOB up and running and it would show everyone how great it was, no one would even consider leaving. That is not what happened.

I have been hearing the exact opposite. It also makes sense that the youth would want to stay while the old want to leave. The youth rely on an EU driven economy for jobs, they take advantage of European free movement, they are more sympathetic to migrants and refugees, etc. The older generation however are the ones most likely to be anti-immigrant, lose their jobs to migrants, generally work in older industries less tied to the EU, do not really take advantage of free movement, etc. UK youth also do not support UKIP or the Conservative party, the only parties with really any members supporting leave.
 

Hawkeye10

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I have been hearing the exact opposite. It also makes sense that the youth would want to stay while the old want to leave. The youth rely on an EU driven economy for jobs, they take advantage of European free movement, they are more sympathetic to migrants and refugees, etc. The older generation however are the ones most likely to be anti-immigrant, lose their jobs to migrants, generally work in older industries less tied to the EU, do not really take advantage of free movement, etc. UK youth also do not support UKIP or the Conservative party, the only parties with really any members supporting leave.



I just checked and you are right:
Brexit: Who’s Voting What - WSJ.com

However my point that we were not supposed to be facing a real chance that people would not want to be part of the EU stands.
 

JANFU

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I just checked and you are right:
Brexit: Who’s Voting What - WSJ.com

However my point that we were not supposed to be facing a real chance that people would not want to be part of the EU stands.
If they leave their will be huge economic consequences. Just in banking alone.
Then you have Scotland who is firmly in the remain camp.
If they left they are on the outside with no voice.
The exit camp has been using, or really misusing migration and numbers.
 

Hawkeye10

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If they leave their will be huge economic consequences. Just in banking alone.
Then you have Scotland who is firmly in the remain camp.
If they left they are on the outside with no voice.
The exit camp has been using, or really misusing migration and numbers.

We dont really know, the best we have are educated guesses.

However since the educated guess is that they stay maybe we dont need to worry about it anymore....17/5 is not close, and you and I know that DP members tend to be smarter than the average bear.
 
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Apocalypse

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They will remain but we'll keep hearing about it in the future.
 

clownboy

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Although there's a heck of a lot of emotion on the pro-Brexit side, I feel that common sense, cooler heads, and economic self preservation will prevail at the end of the day.

Not sure about "cooler heads", but those folks over there are really, really used to a nanny state. And the nanny is threatening their entitlements if they vote Leave. In fact it highlights how ****ed over they've been by the whole EU crap that a half of them poll out as wanting to leave, even though they've been raised and controlled by the state.
 

clownboy

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the leave campaign was gaining serious momentum untill the unfortunate shooting. The fact that the leave campaign didn't immediately collapse shows they have staying power. Whatever the result, I think there will be another referendum, especially if the public does vote for leave by a slim margin.

This is going to be a 51/49 poll, just you all see.

That's why the first thought upon reading that news was - MI6 false flag.
 

Carjosse

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Not sure about "cooler heads", but those folks over there are really, really used to a nanny state. And the nanny is threatening their entitlements if they vote Leave. In fact it highlights how ****ed over they've been by the whole EU crap that a half of them poll out as wanting to leave, even though they've been raised and controlled by the state.

The hell you on about? What does this have to do with anything?
 
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