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Brexit and the Pollsters

Hawkeye10

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Will they get it right?

Simple question, but oh so complicated.



NOTE: This thread is about the long recent history of the failure of political polling, and how they will do this time, this is not about what Britain decides to do.

Thank you.

I just dont know. I pray that no one pressures me to put money down on the question, my confidence in the elite is shot to hell.
 
Will they get it right?

Simple question, but oh so complicated.



NOTE: This thread is about the long recent history of the failure of political polling, and how they will do this time, this is not about what Britain decides to do.

Thank you.

I just dont know. I pray that no one pressures me to put money down on the question, my confidence in the elite is shot to hell.

I think at least some will get it right. But only because the polls are so spread out right now. And some don't include Northern Ireland or Gibraltar which could make a difference on the margins.

Also the polling in the last British election and the Scottish referendum was rough, but I don't think public polling in general has been all that bad recently, at least in the US.
 
I think at least some will get it right. But only because the polls are so spread out right now. And some don't include Northern Ireland or Gibraltar which could make a difference on the margins.

Also the polling in the last British election and the Scottish referendum was rough, but I don't think public polling in general has been all that bad recently, at least in the US.

To my mind no consensus going in would be by definition a failure of polling to answer the questions being asked, thus polling would have failed to provide value, thus polling failed..... do you agree?
 
To my mind no consensus going in would be by definition a failure of polling to answer the questions being asked, thus having no value..... do you agree?

Yes. I just don't think it's public polling in general that's been so far off lately, just British polling.
 
Yes. I just don't think it's public polling in general that's been so far off lately, just British polling.

Internet polling has been very different from telephone polling till recently. Anyone could vote on internet polls but phone polling is more organised and prevents destabilising agents getting involved.
Recently, the telephone polls have started to look very much like internet polls suggesting the vote will be close. Undecided voters are still the rogue element though and most polling has recorded only those who had decided their choice.
 
Will they get it right?

Simple question, but oh so complicated.



NOTE: This thread is about the long recent history of the failure of political polling, and how they will do this time, this is not about what Britain decides to do.

Thank you.

I just dont know. I pray that no one pressures me to put money down on the question, my confidence in the elite is shot to hell.

My suspicion is that the betting odds are closer to the truth.
 
if its politics the yer a peeins will screw it up, history teaches us this.
 
To their credit they said it was close but both the polsters and bookies called the wrong winner.
 
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