• Please keep all posts on the Rittenhouse verdict here: Rittenhouse Verdict. Note the moderator warnings in the thread. The thread will be heavily moderated with a zero tolerance policy for any baiting, flaming, trolling or other rule breaks. Stick to the topic and not the other posters. Thank you.
  • This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Brexit and the Pollsters

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 29, 2015
Messages
45,404
Reaction score
11,744
Location
Olympia Wa
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Will they get it right?

Simple question, but oh so complicated.



NOTE: This thread is about the long recent history of the failure of political polling, and how they will do this time, this is not about what Britain decides to do.

Thank you.

I just dont know. I pray that no one pressures me to put money down on the question, my confidence in the elite is shot to hell.
 

Anagram

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 10, 2011
Messages
8,858
Reaction score
5,411
Location
St. Louis MO
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Conservative
Will they get it right?

Simple question, but oh so complicated.



NOTE: This thread is about the long recent history of the failure of political polling, and how they will do this time, this is not about what Britain decides to do.

Thank you.

I just dont know. I pray that no one pressures me to put money down on the question, my confidence in the elite is shot to hell.

I think at least some will get it right. But only because the polls are so spread out right now. And some don't include Northern Ireland or Gibraltar which could make a difference on the margins.

Also the polling in the last British election and the Scottish referendum was rough, but I don't think public polling in general has been all that bad recently, at least in the US.
 

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 29, 2015
Messages
45,404
Reaction score
11,744
Location
Olympia Wa
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
I think at least some will get it right. But only because the polls are so spread out right now. And some don't include Northern Ireland or Gibraltar which could make a difference on the margins.

Also the polling in the last British election and the Scottish referendum was rough, but I don't think public polling in general has been all that bad recently, at least in the US.

To my mind no consensus going in would be by definition a failure of polling to answer the questions being asked, thus polling would have failed to provide value, thus polling failed..... do you agree?
 

Anagram

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 10, 2011
Messages
8,858
Reaction score
5,411
Location
St. Louis MO
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Conservative
To my mind no consensus going in would be by definition a failure of polling to answer the questions being asked, thus having no value..... do you agree?

Yes. I just don't think it's public polling in general that's been so far off lately, just British polling.
 

Infinite Chaos

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
Messages
18,909
Reaction score
8,841
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Yes. I just don't think it's public polling in general that's been so far off lately, just British polling.

Internet polling has been very different from telephone polling till recently. Anyone could vote on internet polls but phone polling is more organised and prevents destabilising agents getting involved.
Recently, the telephone polls have started to look very much like internet polls suggesting the vote will be close. Undecided voters are still the rogue element though and most polling has recorded only those who had decided their choice.
 

joG

DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 27, 2013
Messages
43,839
Reaction score
9,638
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Independent
Will they get it right?

Simple question, but oh so complicated.



NOTE: This thread is about the long recent history of the failure of political polling, and how they will do this time, this is not about what Britain decides to do.

Thank you.

I just dont know. I pray that no one pressures me to put money down on the question, my confidence in the elite is shot to hell.

My suspicion is that the betting odds are closer to the truth.
 

katzgar

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 2, 2016
Messages
9,517
Reaction score
1,696
Location
prairieville, LA
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
if its politics the yer a peeins will screw it up, history teaches us this.
 

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 29, 2015
Messages
45,404
Reaction score
11,744
Location
Olympia Wa
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 29, 2015
Messages
45,404
Reaction score
11,744
Location
Olympia Wa
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
To their credit they said it was close but both the polsters and bookies called the wrong winner.
 
Top Bottom