In other news, for you and I, SC-01, GA-06, and OK-05 become top targets of the R’s in 2020. For SC-01, this was Rep. Scott’s CD by 70k in 2012 before he was appointed Sen. Scott in 2013. ‘Sanford’ ran unopposed in 2014 in SC-01 and won by 70k in 2016. This year — good turnout — only 40k less than 2016 — I’d say Sanford supporters turned on Arrington, who was supported in the primary by the potus.
Lots of flippable CDs that DEMs just won. The maps haven’t changed, except for a new one in Maryland, pretty much giving R’s another CD there. Both CDs D’s won this week in Illinois have been flipping for a while.
DEMs Left too many CDs on the table. Both MN losses had incumbents go for Governor, giving away one or both imo. No gains in NC, OH, and PA-01,10 and 16 is disappointing for D’s; imo. CA and FL were ‘thin’ at best.
RCP has a great list of all 435 CD % totals. I go to the green papers for actual voter totals, plus such as kgun9 for the AZ senate race. Notice how just how low the voter totals are for at least two of the Dem CDs in this race. Sinema’s CD came in fairly low also, but as I’ve said, we won’t see the Senate totals BY congressional district for a while.
Good Morning Linc, I think these results shows gerrymandering loses its effectiveness as time goes by. Sure for the first couple to three election cycles, it does do harm. But as people move, die, new voters get added to the roster, the gerrymandered district changes. Some slight and some in a huge way. My CD-6 had a PVI of R +20 in 2012, that was down to R+1 in 2018. That's a huge change in the makeup, mainly caused by folks from Atlanta moving north into Gwinnett and Cobb counties. Probably people moving out of those counties as Atlantian's move in. My assessment anyway.
The count in the house now stands at 226 Dem, 198 Rep with 11 remaining to be decided. This year's congressional candidates vote without those remaining 11 stands at Democratic 51.5% to Republican 46.8%. In 2016 when the GOP maintained their majority, the total congressional vote was Republican 49.1% to Democratic 48.0%. That is only about a four point swing, but big enough for the Dems to gain control. If the preliminary party breakdown is correct, there will be some changes when everything is final, the percentages of those who turned out to vote was Democrats 37%, Republicans 33% Independents 30%. Considering at the moment according to Gallup the Democrats make up 30% of the total electorate, Republicans 28% and independents 40%. You can see the anti Trump sentiment droves Democrats to vote more than Republicans. A plus 7 over their total make up of the electorate, Republicans a plus 5 and independents and minus 10. I don't have the party breakdown for congressional races on who turned out in 2016, so we can't compare them to 2018. I do have for the presidential race of Trump vs. Clinton for what percentage the parties made up of those who turned out. I do however have the 2014 midterm turnout percentage by party.
2014 Democrat 35%, Republican 36%, Independents 28%
2016 Democrats 36% Republicans 33% Independents 31% Presidential
2018 Democrats 37% Republicans 33% Independents 30%
I don't have how independents broke down in 2018 yet, but I assume they went Democratic by 8-10 points. Here's the history.
Independent congressional and pickup of seats.
2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republicans. Democrats picked up 33 house seats. Democrats regained control of the house.
2008 Independents voted 51-47 for Democratic congressional candidates. Democrats picked up 21 house seats.
2010 independents voted 57-41 for Republican congressional candidates. Republican picked up 63 house seats. Republican regained control of the house.
2012 Independents voted 50-49 for Republican congressional candidates. Republicans lost 8 house seats.
2014 independents voted 53-45 for Republican congressional candidates. Republicans gained 13 house seats.
2016 Independents voted 51-47 for Republican congressional candidates. Republicans lost 6 house seats.
2018 unknown, not in yet.
