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Both Parties Shift to the Extremes

The Republican party is no longer a diverse political party. The Democratic party is still diverse and still has a conservative base at the state house levels.
 
This should answer your question. Since I worked for Perot in 1992 and 96, Republicans have always blamed him for Bush's defeat. That's hogwash. I have saved this since even today, there is always someone blaming him for Bush's defeat.

As for 1992 and Ross Perot, Clinton beat Bush by 6 million votes, Perot received 19 million. To win Bush would have to receive 13 million votes out of Perot’s 19. That is 68% which is very unrealistic. Exit polls show Perot drew 25% of his 19 million votes from Republicans, 20% from Democrats and 55% from independents and first time voters.

So Perot drew 1 million more votes from Republicans than he did Democrats, but that still would have left Clinton with a 5 million vote victory instead of six. What is interesting is how independents voted in in 1992. 38% voted for Clinton, 32% for Bush and 30% for Perot.

Exit Poll Data and the Perot Vote
Now, let’s briefly consider the 1992 exit poll data and the actual composition of the Perot vote. According to the exit poll data, 38% of the Perot voters said they would have voted for Clinton in a two-way race, 38% would have voted for Bush, 24% would not have voted. Perot won 30% of independents, 17% of Republicans, and 13% of Democrats. Put another way, of his 19% popular vote share, 8 percentage points came from independents, 6 from Republicans, and 5 from Democrats. Fully 53% of Perot’s vote came from self-defined moderates, 27% from conservatives and 20% from liberals; so about 10 points of his 19% came from self-described moderates, with 5 points coming from conservatives and 4 points from liberals. We also know from the exit polls that the Perot voters were angrier at the political system than supporters of the other candidates. Do these Perot supporters really look like voters that would have gone heavily to incumbent Bush in a two-candidate race?

Perot, Bush, Clinton

That may be true, but its hard to say with certainty.

I believe Bush would have won.
 
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