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Boris Johnson: UK's Next PM?

~ The pro-Brexiters already vote heavily for the Tories.

~ You have completely ignored UKIP, which was the party that ran second to Labour in its heartland. Even the most pro-Brexit areas of the North and Midlands are more likely to vote UKIP than Tory.

Those previously Labour areas were very Brexit, they felt the Labour Party was out of step with them for arguing for Remain. Some of our local Northern MPs have had death threats even.

It's early yet, if there was a general election in the next month (ignoring the chaos around us) I fear the result would be repeated but I think the economic situation in a year's time will start to tell. We still have a huge deficit to pay down and investment is going to be diverted or delayed and company HQ's may start being shifted overseas so I think the "honour the result" element in the two big parties will start to reduce.

There is (right now) a sizeable rump of about 38% of Brexit support that say they would vote the same in a new referendum, no matter the financial consequences but like I said before - you only know that when you;ve lost your job or are working less hours because production has largely shifted to mainland Europe.

Interesting page of poll results here.

A third of voters think Brexit won't happen - poll - BBC News
 
Those previously Labour areas were very Brexit, they felt the Labour Party was out of step with them for arguing for Remain. Some of our local Northern MPs have had death threats even.

It's early yet, if there was a general election in the next month (ignoring the chaos around us) I fear the result would be repeated but I think the economic situation in a year's time will start to tell. We still have a huge deficit to pay down and investment is going to be diverted or delayed and company HQ's may start being shifted overseas so I think the "honour the result" element in the two big parties will start to reduce.

There is (right now) a sizeable rump of about 38% of Brexit support that say they would vote the same in a new referendum, no matter the financial consequences but like I said before - you only know that when you;ve lost your job or are working less hours because production has largely shifted to mainland Europe.

Interesting page of poll results here.

A third of voters think Brexit won't happen - poll - BBC News

If Gove becomes PM, then it will happen. If May does, then maybe not despite what she says. Depends on how dire the economy is by the time they figure out who should be leader.
 
It's early yet, if there was a general election in the next month (ignoring the chaos around us) I fear the result would be repeated but I think the economic situation in a year's time will start to tell. We still have a huge deficit to pay down and investment is going to be diverted or delayed and company HQ's may start being shifted overseas so I think the "honour the result" element in the two big parties will start to reduce.

I think I agree with you. I think if a GE were held now UKIP would win seats in both Tory and Labour areas, maybe in the tens of seats, but the Tories would win most seats, Labour still second.

What's interesting is that none of the Tory leadership candidates are suggesting they'll try to call an election if selected. Now, that could be because they know that they would need the support of Labour MPs in order to call an early election and reckon that support would never materialise. Perhaps they're not confident that the divided state of their own party would mitigate a good result.

I suspect they are taking a punt on the results of the coming months being less disastrous as everyone is currently fearing. That's a bold bet. They must assume that by 2020 Labour will have split and declined into irrelevance, that UKIP will have disappeared into oblivion as a party with no reason to exist any more. The 'natural party of government' trope is entrenched in the Tory psyche, and I reckon that they think that by 2020 they'll be ready to march on into the deep blue yonder; permanent austerity, fortress Britain with or without Scotland, and a built-in Tory southeastern supremacy to keep their noses in the trough.
 
I think I agree with you. I think if a GE were held now UKIP would win seats in both Tory and Labour areas, maybe in the tens of seats, but the Tories would win most seats, Labour still second.

What's interesting is that none of the Tory leadership candidates are suggesting they'll try to call an election if selected. Now, that could be because they know that they would need the support of Labour MPs in order to call an early election and reckon that support would never materialise. Perhaps they're not confident that the divided state of their own party would mitigate a good result.

I suspect they are taking a punt on the results of the coming months being less disastrous as everyone is currently fearing. That's a bold bet. They must assume that by 2020 Labour will have split and declined into irrelevance, that UKIP will have disappeared into oblivion as a party with no reason to exist any more. The 'natural party of government' trope is entrenched in the Tory psyche, and I reckon that they think that by 2020 they'll be ready to march on into the deep blue yonder; permanent austerity, fortress Britain with or without Scotland, and a built-in Tory southeastern supremacy to keep their noses in the trough.

Interesting.

I am wondering if both the Tory remain and Labour remain people are playing the long game. By delaying Brexit, it causes more and more damage to the UK economy, which weakens the Brexit people. When there is enough damage done, then they call a general election and make it all about not leaving the EU or a second referendum.

Of course the x-factor is the whole xenophobia aspect, but the uncertainty will most likely mean less people coming from the EU and more people going back home, so..
 
~ that UKIP will have disappeared into oblivion as a party with no reason to exist any more ~

HUGE gamble, the only thing tying UKIP together now is the desire to leave the EU. When it comes to everyday politics there are probably huge differences but I could imagine natural Tory EU sceptic supporters flocking to UKIP. There would be a natural purge of anyone whose "other" politics were outside the new manifesto. Could be brutal, could be a natural drift.

However, I don't see UKIP going anywhere - those in the group have become accustomed to huge support.

If Gove becomes PM, then it will happen. If May does, then maybe not despite what she says. Depends on how dire the economy is by the time they figure out who should be leader.

Still has to work its way through Parliament which is largely Remain.. I accept the if but in reality, all the papers commented on his "backstabbing" and or "treachery" - he has a serious image problem to overcome because if he would do that in a heartbeat to a close colleague, what would he do to us?
 
I am wondering if both the Tory remain and Labour remain people are playing the long game. By delaying Brexit, it causes more and more damage to the UK economy, which weakens the Brexit people. When there is enough damage done, then they call a general election and make it all about not leaving the EU or a second referendum.

I agree to an extent, but I disagree that it is the delay in Article 50 notification that is causing the damage. It is the prospect of exclusion from the single market, as the Brexiters insist is preferable to maintaining free movement, that is causing panic in the markets and causing all those companies and corporations to begin formulating UK exit strategies.
 
HUGE gamble, the only thing tying UKIP together now is the desire to leave the EU. When it comes to everyday politics there are probably huge differences but I could imagine natural Tory EU sceptic supporters flocking to UKIP. There would be a natural purge of anyone whose "other" politics were outside the new manifesto. Could be brutal, could be a natural drift.

However, I don't see UKIP going anywhere - those in the group have become accustomed to huge support.
Even in the very midst of their anti-EU agitation they managed 12.7% of the vote in the General Election of 2015. You seriously believe that their support will rise now that they have achieved the only thing they were set up to achieve? With EU membership now a non-issue, what will they campaign on? Immigration? Sure. What else?



Still has to work its way through Parliament which is largely Remain.. I accept the if but in reality, all the papers commented on his "backstabbing" and or "treachery" - he has a serious image problem to overcome because if he would do that in a heartbeat to a close colleague, what would he do to us?
He's done it already, it's just that the full impact of his treachery on the country will take some time to become evident.
 
I agree to an extent, but I disagree that it is the delay in Article 50 notification that is causing the damage. It is the prospect of exclusion from the single market, as the Brexiters insist is preferable to maintaining free movement, that is causing panic in the markets and causing all those companies and corporations to begin formulating UK exit strategies.

It is a combination. It is the fear of Gove-like people getting power, and the delay it self. At some point companies will say.. we cant wait for the politicians to figure out what the hell they want to do, so we must do what is best for us in the long term.

Easy-Jet pulled the trigger early. They are so dependent on the open skies of the EU, that they can simply not take the risk. Vodafone, a British founded company, thinking of going to Germany instead is a big.. wow. BA is already registered in Madrid, so moving their HQ might happen. If the two biggest airlines leave the UK, then wow.. Add to that the car companies, and the impact could be huge... and we have not even talked about the banks.. Trading in Euros for example happens mostly in London.. that will change. EU banking regulation is in London... that will move. Drip drip drip...
 
~ all those companies and corporations to begin formulating UK exit strategies.

Don't forget how the major companies were always the target of Brexit slogans - on the morning of Brexit, Farage particularly mentioned "big govt, big business" etc

I've no doubt when in power, even the most ardent Brexiteers will want to keep major companies here but the ongoing rhetoric won't have inspired confidence.
 

I'm not familiar with the background behind this picture. I've played for years so I get the whole capo debacle he has going on there but is Boris just messing around, unfamiliar with how a capo works or does he profess to play?
 
Even in the very midst of their anti-EU agitation they managed 12.7% of the vote in the General Election of 2015. You seriously believe that their support will rise now that they have achieved the only thing they were set up to achieve? With EU membership now a non-issue, what will they campaign on? Immigration? Sure. What else?

Dont underestimate xenophobia and Islamophobia. In Denmark we have the Peoples Party, the original UKIP/Tea Party, and their whole existence is because of this. They are the second biggest party in parliament, and yes some of their popularity is due to an anti-EU stance, but most of it is a hatred towards Muslims and foreigners. I could easily see UKIP turn into the legitimate BNP.
 
It is a combination. It is the fear of Gove-like people getting power, and the delay it self. At some point companies will say.. we cant wait for the politicians to figure out what the hell they want to do, so we must do what is best for us in the long term.

Easy-Jet pulled the trigger early. They are so dependent on the open skies of the EU, that they can simply not take the risk.
Not really true. They are looking at the possibility of applying for an Air Operators Licence in another EU country. They've said clearly that they are not giving up their UK base. While significant, you're over-playing that significance.

Vodafone, a British founded company, thinking of going to Germany instead is a big.. wow. BA is already registered in Madrid, so moving their HQ might happen. If the two biggest airlines leave the UK, then wow.. Add to that the car companies, and the impact could be huge... and we have not even talked about the banks.. Trading in Euros for example happens mostly in London.. that will change. EU banking regulation is in London... that will move. Drip drip drip...
Agreed, the consequences of Brexit are real and terrifying, but I repeat, it's not the delay in Article 50 notification that's causing this, it's Brexit itself.
 
So Boris leads his country into battle, but as soon as the real battle begins he runs and lets other people fight and then clean up the mess?

Him bowing out sounds like Britain dodged a bullet. The guy is a coward.
 
Even in the very midst of their anti-EU agitation they managed 12.7% of the vote in the General Election of 2015. You seriously believe that their support will rise now that they have achieved the only thing they were set up to achieve? With EU membership now a non-issue, what will they campaign on? Immigration? Sure. What else?

I've seen several interviews here where UKIP spokespeople have talked about the party going on. Right now, they are single issue but while none of the main parties have a strategy to deal with those impoverished areas where there has been low development and change (with regard to London's development and success) there is a huge proportion of the electorate ready to support them.

You may not have seen over the last few years some real anti-London bile in a lot of the web. I don't mean the "Londonistan" comments of our American posters, I ignore all that - I'm talking about the envy based hatred of those who despise London for its success, who despise that hugely wealthy Arabs, Russians etc buy up expensive property, that aspiring EU nationals come and set up business and add to culture.

There are huge parts of the country that forget London is a huge engine of our economy and think it is also full of muslim immigrants, spongers and that it actually drains or soaks up resources.

~ He's done it already ~

Touche, I forgot that. I should have written "what else would he do to us.."
 
Not really true. They are looking at the possibility of applying for an Air Operators Licence in another EU country. They've said clearly that they are not giving up their UK base. While significant, you're over-playing that significance.

Never said they would give up the UK base.. said that as a company they would be moving out of the UK which is true. EasyJet is the biggest airline by passengers in the UK after all. But they need to be registered in the EU to be able to fly to the European destinations. Frankly the whole situation is problematic.

The EU requires that you are registered in the EU to be able to fly between EU destinations. Hence EasyJet moving. However the UK could now, state that to be able to fly from UK destination to UK destination, then you have to be registered in the UK. What will EasyJet do.. or even British Airways. Will the UK allow non UK owned airlines in the UK.. basically do a US?
 
So Boris leads his country into battle, but as soon as the real battle begins he runs and lets other people fight and then clean up the mess?

Him bowing out sounds like Britain dodged a bullet. The guy is a coward.

Well yes and no. You have to understand how the election process works in the Conservative party. X number of candidates for the leadership is voted on by the Conservative members of Parliament and in the end 2 candidates are left, who then are voted on by all Conservative members.

Now the Conservative Parliament group is full of Remain people. So regardless, a Brexit person would have a hard time. Boris used to be a remain person but changed his mind.. so on that he became unpopular in the eyes of many members of Parliament. He would also be automatically unpopular due who he is and his ambition, and the fact he was seen by most as the replacement of Cameron. So when the only real ally in the Parliament group sticks a big knife in his back, then Boris basically ran out of support in the Parliament group.

So in many ways, what he did, was politically a wise move. Why? He became the victim. Gove, who stabbed him in the back, is now the pariah. Most experts think that Gove could be out of the running by the end of the second round of voting, just because of his backstabbing of Boris.. despite Boris not being popular. So at the end of this, Gove could be a dead man walking and Boris could make a comeback some day.
 
I've seen several interviews here where UKIP spokespeople have talked about the party going on. Right now, they are single issue but while none of the main parties have a strategy to deal with those impoverished areas where there has been low development and change (with regard to London's development and success) there is a huge proportion of the electorate ready to support them.
Not when they have no policies or strategy for increasing prosperity and re-balancing the southeastwards tip of wealth. What are they actually going to propose that would engage those northern regions and their alienated masses?

You may not have seen over the last few years some real anti-London bile in a lot of the web. I don't mean the "Londonistan" comments of our American posters, I ignore all that - I'm talking about the envy based hatred of those who despise London for its success, who despise that hugely wealthy Arabs, Russians etc buy up expensive property, that aspiring EU nationals come and set up business and add to culture.
I've seen it. I've also seen and heard UKIPpers deriding that 'politics of envy', talking about scroungers and benefit cheats. They will not win over former Labour voters by out-Torying the Tories.

There are huge parts of the country that forget London is a huge engine of our economy and think it is also full of muslim immigrants, spongers and that it actually drains or soaks up resources.
Well, they're right on the last point. It does suck up wealth and resources from the rest of the country. London receives more government aid and investment than any other region of the country, but UKIP are proposing any policies that would address that. Farage has called for the privatisation of the NHS. I suspect he'll back-track on that when he realises that that is guaranteed to return those ex-Labour Brexiteers to the fold.

Oh look, it's happened already.

Just as Michael "I'd make a terrible PM" Gove will be caught out by his treacherous flip-flopping, so I believe will Farage.
 
Boris could make a comeback some day.

I very much doubt that. He's had his bluff called, and he withered away like the political light-weight he's always been. In this frenetic atmosphere he's already yesterday's man.
 
I very much doubt that. He's had his bluff called, and he withered away like the political light-weight he's always been. In this frenetic atmosphere he's already yesterday's man.
Except that people forget.
 
Well yes and no. You have to understand how the election process works in the Conservative party. X number of candidates for the leadership is voted on by the Conservative members of Parliament and in the end 2 candidates are left, who then are voted on by all Conservative members.

Now the Conservative Parliament group is full of Remain people. So regardless, a Brexit person would have a hard time. Boris used to be a remain person but changed his mind.. so on that he became unpopular in the eyes of many members of Parliament. He would also be automatically unpopular due who he is and his ambition, and the fact he was seen by most as the replacement of Cameron. So when the only real ally in the Parliament group sticks a big knife in his back, then Boris basically ran out of support in the Parliament group.

So in many ways, what he did, was politically a wise move. Why? He became the victim. Gove, who stabbed him in the back, is now the pariah. Most experts think that Gove could be out of the running by the end of the second round of voting, just because of his backstabbing of Boris.. despite Boris not being popular. So at the end of this, Gove could be a dead man walking and Boris could make a comeback some day.

I thought the fact he likes look some kind of troll would also be a major disadvantage for him.
 
Gove and Johnson stabbed Cameron, then Gove stabbed Johnson. Now it seems Ledsome?sp has overtaken Gove, while the repellent May leads the rat pack. Johnson might hope for victim status, but he must be denied it.

" ...And yet it can feel like displacement activity, this story of Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Theresa May – a distraction diverting us from the betrayal larger than any inflicted by one Tory bigwig on another. Now that the news cycle is measured in seconds, there’s a risk that 23 June might come to feel like history, that we might move on too soon. But there can be no moving on until we have reckoned with what exactly was done to the people of these islands – and by whom.This week’s antics of Gove and Johnson are a useful reminder. For the way one has treated the other is the way both have treated the country. Some may be tempted to turn Johnson into an object of sympathy – poor Boris, knifed by his pal – but he deserves none. In seven days he has been exposed as an egomaniac whose vanity and ambition was so great he was prepared to lead his country on a path he knew led to disaster, so long as it fed his own appetite for status.He didn’t believe a word of his own rhetoric, we know that now. His face last Friday morning, ashen with the terror of victory, proved it. That hot mess of a column he served up on Monday confirmed it again: he was trying to back out of the very decision he’d persuaded the country to make. And let’s not be coy: persuade it, he did. Imagine the Leave campaign without him. Gove, Nigel Farage and Gisela Stuart: they couldn’t have done it without the star power of Boris. ..."

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...and-michael-gove-betrayed-britain-over-brexit
 
Not when they have no policies or strategy for increasing prosperity and re-balancing the southeastwards tip of wealth. What are they actually going to propose that would engage those northern regions and their alienated masses?

Really good question Andy but I really don't think they do have any policy. There is a stated aim that UKIP lives on and as I said before, it will be a simple populist position.

I've seen it. I've also seen and heard UKIPpers deriding that 'politics of envy', talking about scroungers and benefit cheats. They will not win over former Labour voters by out-Torying the Tories.

Come on, it is a particular branch of the Conservative Party that does that. You know as well s I do that there would never be any conservative government if large chunks of the working class didn't vote for it. That same constituency can easily switch allegiance from the conservatives over to UKIP, all you need to do is sell the "working man of the people" image that Farage has done so well against the "Old Etonian" that Cameron and others have in the conservative party. And before you say it, yes I know Farage was a city trader from a private school - I'm talking about the assumed image.

Well, they're right on the last point. It does suck up wealth and resources from the rest of the country. London receives more government aid and investment than any other region of the country, but UKIP are proposing any policies that would address that. Farage has called for the privatisation of the NHS. I suspect he'll back-track on that when he realises that that is guaranteed to return those ex-Labour Brexiteers to the fold.

London contributes a vast amount to the economy, it's central govt failure over the last 30-35 years to utilise that wealth and develop industry around the rest of the country.
 
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