Blair: UK could still join Euro in the future

[Infinite Chaos]

Former prime minister Tony Blair has said there might still be a case for the UK joining the euro in the future.

He told the BBC he did not agree with people who argued joining would be a disaster, but there had to be a compelling economic case for doing so.

He said he believed the euro would eventually resolve its problems and the case for Britain joining may become "compelling ... at a certain point".

--snip--

Mr Blair said the problems with the eurozone were "fundamental" and there had to be changes - to align fiscal and monetary policy across the single currency area, and to make changes in those countries with problems. BBC

I would like further information on what the compelling economic case for Britain joining the euro would be.

 

[German guy]

I would like further information on what the compelling economic case for Britain joining the euro would be.

Germany could bail you out if you go bankrupt.

 

[gunner]

I would like further information on what the compelling economic case for Britain joining the euro would be.

Ive never been sold on Blairs fascination with Europe. For me, he never really clarified the case for going the 'whole hog'. In saying that, I'm yet to be persuaded or dissuaded from my neutral stance on the topic..

Paul

 

[gunner]

Germany could bail you out if you go bankrupt.

And vise verse

Paul

 

[PeteEU]

Germany could bail you out if you go bankrupt.

If? You seen their economy? ....

 

[Jetboogieman]

 

[gunner]

If? You seen their economy? ....

True. A good job we are not constrained by the Euro...

Paul

 

[Manc Skipper]

We wouldn't just be toast, but a cinder!

 

[Infinite Chaos]

If? You seen their economy? ....

Pete, as long as I've been here you've been predicting the end of the UK and it still hasn't happened. I seem to remember you went a different way on the PIGS and Greece is now back at the bailout table.

 

[Temporal]

I would like further information on what the compelling economic case for Britain joining the euro would be.

Blair is part of the Bilderberg group, so this doesn't surprise me at all. Regionalization of Europe's economy and currency only really benefits the financial elites. Britain should stay well away while it still has the strength.

 

[PeteEU]

Pete, as long as I've been here you've been predicting the end of the UK and it still hasn't happened. I seem to remember you went a different way on the PIGS and Greece is now back at the bailout table.

Greece has always been a special case... they after all lied about their debts. The PIGS was always an anglo-American term that had no real meaning with the exception of Greece and Ireland. Spain and Portugal and Italy are on a debt vs gdp and deficit terms now and been for a while, much better off than the UK and US.

As for the UK. No I have not been predicting the end of the UK... I have been saying that the UK economy is not as sound as the British people think it is. I said the same about the US economy before the crash.. and guess what I was right.

Lets take a look at the UK economy. Unemployment is rising... even BEFORE the massive public sector cuts. Public unions are threatening national strikes with private unions most likely behind them also. The government is hardly the bastion of stability with massive internal conflicts and that has resulted in flip flop after flip flop. Most of the public sector cuts have not even started and the ones that have, have been strange to say the least. An aircraft carrier with no planes... or planes with no aircraft carrier, upping tuition fees so that higher education only is for the rich (and not saving much for the public purse)... Inflation is still much higher than the Eurozone and what is the target, and you cant cut your interest rates further... guess you could devalue, although I cant see any positive thing in doing that. Your high street has month after month of disappointing numbers and that shows that the UK consumer, which is a huge part of the UK economy, does not want to spend and is vary of the future. On top of that, the UK banking sector is hardly the healthiest there is, with two big banks still in public hands, and the "changes" that was promised by Labour and in part the Lib-Dems is being held up by the Conservative party in an attempt to protect the City of London from much needed regulation so that the UK does not have to bail them out again when they go all crazy on greed... oh and at the same time.. bonuses in the City of London... are UP! All in the while, the UK budget deficit is little changed, and the amount borrowed each month has not budged.. in fact it went up for some months I believe. How long has the present government been in power...

While I have no doubt that the UK (like Greece and US) will eventually get out of its hole, standing around being critical of everyone else in the Euro zone and the Euro, while the house you are standing in is on clay shoes or whatever it is called.. is kinda pathetic.

 

[gunner]

Greece has always been a special case... they after all lied about their debts. The PIGS was always an anglo-American term that had no real meaning with the exception of Greece and Ireland. Spain and Portugal and Italy are on a debt vs gdp and deficit terms now and been for a while, much better off than the UK and US.

As for the UK. No I have not been predicting the end of the UK... I have been saying that the UK economy is not as sound as the British people think it is. I said the same about the US economy before the crash.. and guess what I was right.

Lets take a look at the UK economy. Unemployment is rising... even BEFORE the massive public sector cuts. Public unions are threatening national strikes with private unions most likely behind them also. The government is hardly the bastion of stability with massive internal conflicts and that has resulted in flip flop after flip flop. Most of the public sector cuts have not even started and the ones that have, have been strange to say the least. An aircraft carrier with no planes... or planes with no aircraft carrier, upping tuition fees so that higher education only is for the rich (and not saving much for the public purse)... Inflation is still much higher than the Eurozone and what is the target, and you cant cut your interest rates further... guess you could devalue, although I cant see any positive thing in doing that. Your high street has month after month of disappointing numbers and that shows that the UK consumer, which is a huge part of the UK economy, does not want to spend and is vary of the future. On top of that, the UK banking sector is hardly the healthiest there is, with two big banks still in public hands, and the "changes" that was promised by Labour and in part the Lib-Dems is being held up by the Conservative party in an attempt to protect the City of London from much needed regulation so that the UK does not have to bail them out again when they go all crazy on greed... oh and at the same time.. bonuses in the City of London... are UP! All in the while, the UK budget deficit is little changed, and the amount borrowed each month has not budged.. in fact it went up for some months I believe. How long has the present government been in power...

While I have no doubt that the UK (like Greece and US) will eventually get out of its hole, standing around being critical of everyone else in the Euro zone and the Euro, while the house you are standing in is on clay shoes or whatever it is called.. is kinda pathetic.

Dont get me wrong i am in no way defending the coalition or its policys. But, as was highlighted in their initial startegy it was more than likely the UK would get worse prior to any real, or marked improvenment, in the economy.
Employment figures look to be going down, obviously a good sign

"The total number of unemployed people fell by 88,000 over the quarter to reach 2.43 million. This is the largest quarterly fall in unemployment since the three months to August 2000".

National Statistics Online - Unemployment

Paul

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Greece has always been a special case... they after all lied about their debts. The PIGS was always an anglo-American term that had no real meaning with the exception of Greece and Ireland. Spain and Portugal and Italy are on a debt vs gdp and deficit terms now and been for a while, much better off than the UK and US.

I seem to recall that Greece and Ireland were the worst case scenarios and that Spain and Portugal were less likely to default. I also seem to remember that effort had gone into Greece and Ireland precisely to prevent a domino effect thus "PIGS" is accurate.



Strange that the Greek President says similar?

As for the UK. No I have not been predicting the end of the UK...

:lamo

I have been saying that the UK economy is not as sound as the British people think it is. I said the same about the US economy before the crash.. and guess what I was right.

Well, it's still in the top 10 World economies and has been for the last 15 years+. Not bad for the sick man of Europe eh?

Lets take a look at the UK economy. Unemployment is rising... even BEFORE the massive public sector cuts.

Gunner has already corrected you but this adds to his link. Sharp drop in UK unemployment

-- Public unions are threatening national strikes with private unions most likely behind them also.

True but not limited to the UK only and hardly evidence of a poor economy during a world-wide economic downturn.

The government is hardly the bastion of stability with massive internal conflicts and that has resulted in flip flop after flip flop.

That's what you get with coalition govt!

Inflation is still much higher than the Eurozone and what is the target, and you cant cut your interest rates further... guess you could devalue, although I cant see any positive thing in doing that.

UK inflation has long been above the Eurozone 2%, except when we boomed and the Eurozone busted in the early millenium. In a short period between 2001 Xmas and 2002 autumn, UK inflation dropped below 2%.

Guess what? We're still here. :2wave:

Your high street has month after month of disappointing numbers and that shows that the UK consumer, which is a huge part of the UK economy, does not want to spend and is vary of the future.

We are not dependent on the high street shopper alone as our continued recovery during a shopping downturn shows.

The UK economy contracted twice since 1990. From the middle of 1990 to 1992 and then from summer 2008 to autumn 2009. We've been in recovery since.

On the BBC Economy Tracker graphic tab - click "GDP." :mrgreen:

-- On top of that, the UK banking sector is hardly the healthiest there is, with two big banks still in public hands

They are about to be sold off - I support the Lib Dem proposal to give the UK taxpayer free shares in these banks.

oh and at the same time.. bonuses in the City of London... are UP!

Yeah, nobody here is happy about the bonuses.

-- All in the while, the UK budget deficit is little changed, and the amount borrowed each month has not budged.. in fact it went up for some months I believe. How long has the present government been in power...

A little longer than we've been in GDP recovery. :lamo

-- standing around being critical of everyone else in the Euro zone and the Euro, while the house you are standing in is on clay shoes or whatever it is called.. is kinda pathetic.

We're in an economic recovery Pete, we can't afford any more PIGS bailouts and neither can the rest of Europe. For good or bad, it looks like we all need the Chinese to come and invest in Europe and buy bonds in Greece, Spain UK etc

The UK trades well with the Eurozone and we don't wish to see it fail, we just aren't ready to join and certainly with a lot of the current (and proposed membership) it's not likely to be soon either.

 

[PeteEU]

I seem to recall that Greece and Ireland were the worst case scenarios and that Spain and Portugal were less likely to default. I also seem to remember that effort had gone into Greece and Ireland precisely to prevent a domino effect thus "PIGS" is accurate.



Strange that the Greek President says similar?

LOL, no. The "experts" on CNBC, and even the BBC have long stated that Spain and Portugal were next and not mentioning Ireland that much until it was clear to everyone that Ireland was almost worse off than Greece. Even to this day, no one really talks much about Ireland, despite it having the largest deficit of all and largest debt of all. They all gloss over the fact the 150+ billion Euro liability the UK alone has in Ireland... do you seriously have 150+ billion to give up?

Well, it's still in the top 10 World economies and has been for the last 15 years+. Not bad for the sick man of Europe eh?

.... The UK was in the top 10 world economies when it was near bankrupt in the early 1970s... size of an economy does not mean it is a healthy economy.

Gunner has already corrected you but this adds to his link. Sharp drop in UK unemployment

Yes I concede that somewhat.. the question is this a dip or a downward trend? Already today, we hear that 2 "major" high-street store chains have gone belly up. 4000+ jobs on the line and as I stated.. the cuts in public spending have not even started.

True but not limited to the UK only and hardly evidence of a poor economy during a world-wide economic downturn.

Never said it was limited to the UK. And it is evidence of an economy in trouble when public unions and private are going to strike over cuts in public spending.

That's what you get with coalition govt!

So would you rather have that the Conservatives were running the show exclusively?

UK inflation has long been above the Eurozone 2%, except when we boomed and the Eurozone busted in the early millenium. In a short period between 2001 Xmas and 2002 autumn, UK inflation dropped below 2%.

Again, you are mixing up the Eurozone and UK. The UK sets its own inflation target which matches that of the Eurozone. As for "long above".. that is horse****.

UK Historical Inflation Rate

The rate of inflation has been above the target since (annually) since 2007.. and considerably above some months. Before that, inflation on annual basis and even monthly was under the 2% target with some exceptions (monthly only). In fact you have to go back to 1992 and before that to see rampant inflation above 2%.

We are not dependent on the high street shopper alone as our continued recovery during a shopping downturn shows.

The UK economy contracted twice since 1990. From the middle of 1990 to 1992 and then from summer 2008 to autumn 2009. We've been in recovery since.

On the BBC Economy Tracker graphic tab - click "GDP." :mrgreen:

Yes.. and in each case... government spending went up to counter act the lower consumption... which has resulted in.. higher deficits and debts.

They are about to be sold off - I support the Lib Dem proposal to give the UK taxpayer free shares in these banks.

Yes.. and hopefully not at a too big loss.

Yeah, nobody here is happy about the bonuses.

That is a lie The conservative party is happy as are the people getting the insane bonuses and their employers.

A little longer than we've been in GDP recovery. :lamo

Yea that 0% growth the last two quarters is one hell of a recovery..

We're in an economic recovery Pete, we can't afford any more PIGS bailouts and neither can the rest of Europe. For good or bad, it looks like we all need the Chinese to come and invest in Europe and buy bonds in Greece, Spain UK etc

Yes we are, and our recovery will be in serious doubt if bankers yet again do a Lehman and stop lending and the risk of that happening is considerably higher with a Greek/Irish default than without. Like it or not, an economic recovery can not happen if there is no flow of capital.

The UK trades well with the Eurozone and we don't wish to see it fail, we just aren't ready to join and certainly with a lot of the current (and proposed membership) it's not likely to be soon either.

Yes you do trade a lot to the Eurozone, and then comes in the question why do you at the same time not only criticize the people that are feeding you but also ignore your own issues?

 

[Camlon]

Greece has always been a special case... they after all lied about their debts. The PIGS was always an anglo-American term that had no real meaning with the exception of Greece and Ireland. Spain and Portugal and Italy are on a debt vs gdp and deficit terms now and been for a while, much better off than the UK and US.

PIGS is not a term describing countries that will probably default, but a set of countries that is having a lot of economical problems.

Spain: Has 21% unemployment and projected growth rates are very low. They have somewhat a deficit problem, but no debt problem.
Italy: Hasn't had growth for the last 15 years. In the next 15 years they will probably have negative growth.
Portugal: Has a GDP per capita of 22K, and very low growth rates even though their GDP per capita is low. Also, they have a deficit problem.

UK and US do have similar deficit and debt problems as Portugal, but their economies are growing, they already have much higher living standards and they do not have 21% unemployment.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

LOL, no. The "experts" on CNBC, and even the BBC have long stated that Spain and Portugal were next and not mentioning Ireland that much until it was clear to everyone that Ireland was almost worse off than Greece. Even to this day, no one really talks much about Ireland, despite it having the largest deficit of all and largest debt of all. They all gloss over the fact the 150+ billion Euro liability the UK alone has in Ireland... do you seriously have 150+ billion to give up?

Not really Pete, the first imminent crisis was the Icelandic Banks which held a lot of our council's reserves. There've been lots of stories about Ireland. Hardly glossing over.

Portugal did end up needing a loan and is discussing bailouts again

-- .... The UK was in the top 10 world economies when it was near bankrupt in the early 1970s... size of an economy does not mean it is a healthy economy.

Well if 1970's isn't far enough - go back 100 or so years and we were the world's economy. Go back to the 1950's and we were booming. So what? The point is now and where we're going. We're still healthy in comparison to Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

-- Yes I concede that somewhat.. the question is this a dip or a downward trend? Already today, we hear that 2 "major" high-street store chains have gone belly up. 4000+ jobs on the line and as I stated.. the cuts in public spending have not even started.

I won't be gloating when they do, sounds like you will. As to your question - gunner's link shows this wasn't a temporary blip of the figures. I'm not arguing we're a tiger economy either - we're just not collapsing as you keep hoping.

-- Never said it was limited to the UK. And it is evidence of an economy in trouble when public unions and private are going to strike over cuts in public spending.

Point remains that there's a global downturn and we aren't different. This is not the downturn of 2001 when everyone else suffered and we kept on strong.

-- So would you rather have that the Conservatives were running the show exclusively?

You're arguing for arguing's sake Pete. I answered your question / point.

-- Again, you are mixing up the Eurozone and UK. The UK sets its own inflation target which matches that of the Eurozone. As for "long above".. that is horse****.

Haha! thank you for correcting me that the UK's inflation rate has been long below the Eurozone's? Who's on which side again?

-- UK Historical Inflation Rate

Ah, I see, that's based on CPI, it's the same as the BBC link which also showed the RPI. I used retail price index as that was worse - figuring (wrongly) you wouldn't accept it.

The rate of inflation has been above the target since (annually) since 2007.. and considerably above some months. Before that, inflation on annual basis and even monthly was under the 2% target with some exceptions (monthly only). In fact you have to go back to 1992 and before that to see rampant inflation above 2%.

Cheers! We're doing better than I thought and remembered. (I was away from Europe in the 90's so I have a hazy recollection anyway.

Yes.. and in each case... government spending went up to counter act the lower consumption... which has resulted in.. higher deficits and debts.

Spending on NHS, Education and increasing the public sector. The public sector is too large anyway.

-- That is a lie

/sigh.

The conservative party is happy

/sigh

-- Yea that 0% growth the last two quarters is one hell of a recovery..

Earlier, GDP rise and unemployment fall over a longer period might be a "blip" for you but 2 quarters of very low growth is a huge downward trend? :roll:

-- Yes we are, and our recovery will be in serious doubt if bankers yet again do a Lehman and stop lending and the risk of that happening is considerably higher with a Greek/Irish default than without. Like it or not, an economic recovery can not happen if there is no flow of capital.

Or selling our debt (and souls) to China.

-- Yes you do trade a lot to the Eurozone, and then comes in the question why do you at the same time not only criticize the people that are feeding you but also ignore your own issues?

Who're you talking about? Me personally / the UK Govt / UK labour party / England / Scotland?

 

[Camlon]

BTW: When we compare US, UK and PIGS, we need to also take into account net debt, not just gross debt. Because if you are concerned about US paying ever larger interest payment, then net debt is what interest us. Especially for the US who can always get new debt, net debt is much more important. This is net debt for many relevant countries.

Greece 142.024 %
Japan 117.466 %
Italy 99.561 %
Belgium 81.539 %
Portugal 79.096 %
France 74.551 %
Israel 73.157 %
United Kingdom 69.423 %
Ireland 69.385 %
Iceland 67.564 %
United States 64.824 %
Germany 53.818 %
Switzerland 53.223 %
Austria 49.814 %
Spain 48.752 %
Canada 32.219 %
Korea 29.554 %
Netherlands 27.476 %
Australia 5.529 %
New Zealand 4.596 %
Denmark 0.893 %
Hong Kong 0 %
Sweden -14.607 %
Finland -56.797 %
Norway -156.44 %

http://www.economywatch.com/economi...s/General_Government_Net_Debt_Percentage_GDP/

 

[Infinite Chaos]

-- United Kingdom 69.423 %

Apparently when you add financial sector intervention by the UK Govt, our figure rises to 148%.

Over the long term, UK debt as a percentage of GDP starts at 40-50% in 1900 until 1915 and then rockets as a result of World War to 200%, staying there until 1948 when it begins to fall from around 300% to approx 50% in 1974 and fluctuates around the 50% - 70% area since.

So really, if having 200% plus debt as a percentage of GDP for 40 years didn't destroy the UK - it's not likely to suddenly do so now if it rises because of the credit crunch and world recession.

UK National Debt | Economics Blog

 

[PeteEU]

BTW: When we compare US, UK and PIGS, we need to also take into account net debt, not just gross debt. Because if you are concerned about US paying ever larger interest payment, then net debt is what interest us. Especially for the US who can always get new debt, net debt is much more important. This is net debt for many relevant countries.

Greece 142.024 %
Japan 117.466 %
Italy 99.561 %
Belgium 81.539 %
Portugal 79.096 %
France 74.551 %
Israel 73.157 %
United Kingdom 69.423 %
Ireland 69.385 %
Iceland 67.564 %
United States 64.824 %
Germany 53.818 %
Switzerland 53.223 %
Austria 49.814 %
Spain 48.752 %
Canada 32.219 %
Korea 29.554 %
Netherlands 27.476 %
Australia 5.529 %
New Zealand 4.596 %
Denmark 0.893 %
Hong Kong 0 %
Sweden -14.607 %
Finland -56.797 %
Norway -156.44 %

Total Government Net Debt (% of GDP) Data for All Countries

Actually these debt numbers are often a load of political bs. They do not distinguish one bit between debt held internally and externally. Japan for example has most of its debt internally because Japan is a nation of savers, where as Greece and Ireland is largely external. Sadly the "experts" have become so right wing orientated and the media are eating up the propaganda so that "debt" has become a bashing tool in the never ending political and economic ideology battles. For example, Italy... it has had near 100%+ for a long time, but because most of that is held by the Italians themselves then it was not seen as a major problem until this near fanatical attack on any and all national debt.

Now days, thanks to the American lead right wing kitchen dumbing down political propaganda, any debt and deficit is just wrong so people go all bent out of shape if they see that X has so much debt vs GDP or so on. Sure in Greece's case it is bad because of other factors, but in the UKs, Spain's and most other nations it is not a problem under normal market condition. Problem is that the markets seem to have become dumber and dumber of the last 5 years and dont look at facts any more, but lives off the hype and panic (since it pays so much better at the moment). Look at yesterday... ONE Greek deputy on the government side voted no, and when that happened the markets had a minor crash... seriously..... a gas explosion goes off in the middle east and the markets go down.. for the love of god.

But if you look at it realistically.. you cant dumb down a countries economy to the kitchen table level and compare it to that of a house-hold... for one, house-holds do not have a guaranteed income.. nations do unless they turn into a failed state. Nations can tax, house-holds can not... and this a huge difference. Plus if we do "dumb" down the debt vs GDP to the normal house-hold, then most home owning house-holds are in far bigger trouble than Greece on paper with easily 200+% debt vs the income they have. Difference is they have 30+ years to pay it off, where as Greece has 2 to 5..... and that is another huge difference between the two.

And for the record, I do not fear the UK going under.. is it in trouble.. yes, but going under is unrealistic unless the speculators start targeting it yet again and then all bets are off. If the EU had the political balls then it would head on into the fight against speculators just as the US and other national energy agencies did by releasing all that emergency oil. Speculation has gone amok the last decade and it has to stop.. especially when whole countries can be pushed over the brink and people are starving because speculation has driven up prices by 40%.

 

[Camlon]

Actually these debt numbers are often a load of political bs. They do not distinguish one bit between debt held internally and externally. Japan for example has most of its debt internally because Japan is a nation of savers, where as Greece and Ireland is largely external. Sadly the "experts" have become so right wing orientated and the media are eating up the propaganda so that "debt" has become a bashing tool in the never ending political and economic ideology battles. For example, Italy... it has had near 100%+ for a long time, but because most of that is held by the Italians themselves then it was not seen as a major problem until this near fanatical attack on any and all national debt.

True, but internal debt is still a problem. If you have 100% net debt with a interest rate of 3%, then you have to pay 3% of GDP each year. It will be harder to balance the budget. This may create a problem in a crisis and will harm the economy outside a crisis. I think Italy would have a problem if they were spending like Greece.

Nations can tax, house-holds can not... and this a huge difference. Plus if we do "dumb" down the debt vs GDP to the normal house-hold, then most home owning house-holds are in far bigger trouble than Greece on paper with easily 200+% debt vs the income they have. Difference is they have 30+ years to pay it off, where as Greece has 2 to 5..... and that is another huge difference between the two.

There is another big difference. Households don't have increasing debt. They start of with a huge debt, and then it declines. That sounds like Germany and no one is worried about them.

US, and UK do have a debt problem, because they are accumilating more debt. Right now they are managable, but what about in 10 years? Secondly, there are no advantage of having a huge debt. If US had a debt like Australia, then they could be a net creditor and earn money on others countries loaning from the US.

What I dislike the most, is that people/economists/journalists use gross debt, when they should be using net debt. Japan 210% public debt sound really bad, but people forget that their net debt is only 110%. Actually the debt (gross - net) may be benefical to Japan.

 

[PeteEU]

True, but internal debt is still a problem. If you have 100% net debt with a interest rate of 3%, then you have to pay 3% of GDP each year. It will be harder to balance the budget. This may create a problem in a crisis and will harm the economy outside a crisis. I think Italy would have a problem if they were spending like Greece.

No it is not a major problem. First off you have to repay this debt in local currency and not in a foreign currency. Secondly those holding the debt are more than often pension funds and local financial institutions that have no interest what so ever to force a default. And finally, the most important point... government will always have revenue and revenue in the local currency which in turn means it is far far easier to pay back internal debt than external. Not to mention they could easily arrange tax changes to lower the debt load if they wanted too. /shrug.

There is another big difference. Households don't have increasing debt. They start of with a huge debt, and then it declines. That sounds like Germany and no one is worried about them.

Actually households do have increasing debt... really depends on so many factors. For example re-mortgaging, over drafting, paying for "stuff" via short term loans and so on and so on. But over time the debt load should in theory fall yes. But unlike countries, they cant be sure that there is a paycheck next month aka income.

US, and UK do have a debt problem, because they are accumilating more debt. Right now they are managable, but what about in 10 years? Secondly, there are no advantage of having a huge debt. If US had a debt like Australia, then they could be a net creditor and earn money on others countries loaning from the US.

No the problem with the US and UK (somewhat) is not the debt.. it is the deficit in government financing and lack of political will (especially in the US) to seriously do anything about it. The US could have 200% in debt and it would still not be a major economic problem as long as their deficit was not out of control..And the problem with the UK, is that the deficit is NOT under control and the plans the not so new government want to put in place look more like age old class warfare instead of a serious look at what is needed and not.... hello Triton!!!!

What I dislike the most, is that people/economists/journalists use gross debt, when they should be using net debt. Japan 210% public debt sound really bad, but people forget that their net debt is only 110%. Actually the debt (gross - net) may be benefical to Japan.

I agree some what. But you know as well as I do... it is politics. If a politician/economist can come with some sort of justification of their views and policies by "twisting the truth" then they will do it. They have been doing it constantly against Spain for 2 years now pretty much, going from "Spain has a massive debt problem" (False), to it was a banking issue (false), to now being a problem with the regions...(we shall see) in every case they have been debunked after time, but the hype and miss-information has hurt the ratings of Spain and the yield. And it is still going on... all they have to do is say... but Spain has 20% unemployment... but they always forget to mention that even at the best of times with 3+% growth and a booming economy Spain has 10% unemployment..... they always forget to mention that the problem with Spanish unemployment a structural one.. one that can easily be fixed if the politicians got their finger out of their asses.

But it also goes the other way. There is a prevailing tone in the US among US media and politicians that it is "horrible" in Europe, while the pretty much ignore their own back yard..and that is 100% politics at work.. It is easier to point out someone else's (true or not) than dealing with your own. And it is always easier to manipulate numbers to fit your world view than actually deal with the raw numbers and admit that your world view is not exactly what you expected it to be.

I have yet to hear a reasoned explanation in Europe why our pension problems are a problem and why our healthcare problems are a problem and why the only way to fix them is by cutting and privatisation... the amount of Fog of War is huge everywhere.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

-- But it also goes the other way. There is a prevailing tone in the US among US media and politicians that it is "horrible" in Europe, while the pretty much ignore their own back yard..and that is 100% politics at work.. It is easier to point out someone else's (true or not) than dealing with your own. And it is always easier to manipulate numbers to fit your world view than actually deal with the raw numbers and admit that your world view is not exactly what you expected it to be

Is that not what you are doing on every thread about the US and the UK Pete?

-- And the problem with the UK, is that the deficit is NOT under control and the plans the not so new government want to put in place look more like age old class warfare instead of a serious look at what is needed and not.... hello Triton!!!!

OK, 2 years ago the IMF warned of this - that the UK deficit would be the worst in the world. So 2 years ago, I would have agreed with you. This year, the IMF has backed the current Govt's deficit reduction plans and here, before Legarde's appointment as head- John Lipsky, acting head of the IMF discusses the UK govt's deficit reduction with Jeremy Paxman on BBC Newsnight.

Very strange that he (and the IMF) doesn't say what you're saying. :roll:

 

[PeteEU]

Is that not what you are doing on every thread about the US and the UK Pete?

If you mean, I am trying to bring all the facts to the table then sure.

OK, 2 years ago the IMF warned of this - that the UK deficit would be the worst in the world. So 2 years ago, I would have agreed with you. This year, the IMF has backed the current Govt's deficit reduction plans and here, before Legarde's appointment as head- John Lipsky, acting head of the IMF discusses the UK govt's deficit reduction with Jeremy Paxman on BBC Newsnight.

Because the IMF has always been a bastion of right wing American economic theory where cutting costs comes before growth. It has always been IMF policy that any economy must cut public spending and that is what the present government is doing. Like it or not, there has not been any major economic factual change in the UK economy over those 2 years. The deficit is still one of the highest in the world and the debt is still rising faster than most others and the economic growth is still flat and the cuts have not hit yet and there are even question marks if they will with all the political trouble the government is in at the moment... their whole public pension fiasco is shocking.. good thing that the BBC and Sky News have called them on their utter lies and now they are playing catch up and switching excuses to gut public pensions.
Very strange that he (and the IMF) doesn't say what you're saying. :roll:

 

[Richard Nixon]

I enjoy the frantic worry about debt that seems to fascinate people these days. Government debt works on some empyrean level away from our common macroeconomics. As Pete says most of the people that hold government debt are people and companies that would be hurt if there were ever to be a default, so they usually wait their turn and eventually get paid. My lecturer at university once said that if you fear today's debt then you should think of the debt imposed on Germany after the First World War which took them 92 years to finally pay off. That sum would look astronomical to people now if it were adjusted for inflation.