Bitcoin

[Germinator]

Do you usually post giant piles of overly large pictures?

had an idea that I was going to take a collection of "overly large pictures" (that encapsulate aspects of banking AND bitcoin) and turn them into a Doodly video



yeah I know the robotic VoiceOver used in the YouTube isn't the greatest, but thought about making it into a twofer project about testing various "text to speech" software while also trying to point out problems about crypto-currencies

The video link above is the baseline "text to speech" default "free" software that apple offers

The plan is to take the storyboard script



and try the exact same text,... to create a TRUMP speech, a Snoop Dogg speech, perhaps a BIDEN speech, etc.

Crypto isn't stable enough to be a currency.

yup,... totally agree

 

[Germinator]

Any thoughts on cryptocurrency?

betting on cryptocurrencies (like bitcoin) is a game where 99.99999% don't win



CRYPTOCURRENCY CONCERNS

Cryptocurrencies already facilitate many different kinds of harm. Pariah states, including Iran and North Korea, use cryptocurrencies, and the anonymity that they grant, to evade sanctions and launder money. In 2022, for example, Pyongyang reportedly stole $1.7 billion of cryptocurrency, which it is believed to be using to fund ballistic missile and nuclear weapon development. Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, have become the most common form of payment for the ransomware attacks increasingly targeting businesses and public services because it allows the nefarious actors behind these attacks to receive large amounts of money quickly and anonymously. Cryptocurrencies are also increasingly being used to facilitate drug and human trafficking—and the anonymity that they grant users inhibits law enforcement efforts.

If allowed to proceed unchecked, the unrestricted growth of the cryptocurrency industry and its future integration with the traditional financial system could produce a major crisis. Blockchain-based finance is complex, automated, highly interconnected, and offers vast opportunities for creating leverage, because there is a virtually unlimited supply of assets to borrow against. These are the kind of fragilities that led to the last financial crisis, in 2008. This damaged trust in the traditional financial system, and the cryptocurrency industry wandered into the wreckage, promoting itself as a reliable alternative to banks. Despite the industry’s claims, most of those who invested in cryptocurrency have lost money. Those already disillusioned with traditional finance are likely to become even more cynical after their cryptocurrency losses, and this cynicism may have further consequences. As the professor David Golumbia, author of The Politics of Bitcoin, has argued, much of the conversation surrounding cryptocurrency draws on right-wing rhetoric about the evils of government. There is a danger that members of cryptocurrency communities, embittered by their losses, may be funneled into extreme online communities.

Cryptocurrencies also come with an environmental cost. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets relying on proof-of-work blockchains require miners to run computers that consume enormous amounts of electricity. Powering these computers has sometimes required as much energy as that consumed by the entirety of the Netherlands—a country of some 17 million people. In addition to the emissions that result, the mining burns through computer equipment relatively quickly, contributing to electronic waste and the global semiconductor chip shortage.

Given the many problems with cryptocurrency, it seems foolhardy to allow the industry to continue as it is unless it can be shown to have demonstrable benefits. But it is hard to identify any upsides. Industry leaders and lobbyists tend to argue that the primary benefit of cryptocurrency is its decentralization. Given the sometimes dubious track record of traditional financial institutions, the prospect of a truly decentralized system, which does not require the use or trust of intermediaries, is certainly an appealing one. Unfortunately, that prospect is unrealistic.

The Case for Banning Crypto

For finance, the blockchain’s risks far outweigh its rewards.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[cAPSLOCK]

betting on cryptocurrencies (like bitcoin) is a game where 99.99999% don't win

I will continue to differentiate between Bitcoin and almost all the rest of "cryptocurrencies". I agree that "betting on cryptocurrencies" is foolish and generally a losing bet. But Bitcoin is an exception. I believe that you can pick ANY POINT on the chart over the last 14 years of it's existence and within 4 years you will be in the black.

So that would mean that SO FAR, 100% of people who held bitcoin for at least 4 years have won.

But I also do not suggest Bitcoin as primarily an "investment". But rather a hedge. And it is a hedge against what we see coming. CDBCs and endless dillution of the money supply by constant printing. A way that governments have extracted wealth from not only their own citizens but the people of the world for over 50 years.

Also, people who support he central bank fiat system have no right to point at Bitcoin and talk about it's use in crime. Bitcoin is small peanuts compared to the USD in that regard.

Honestly, each point in the above paragraph is dishonest.

Lastly... we seem to be seeing an orchestrated plan against the USD unfolding before our eyes. If this has any success at all that may result in devastating hyperinflation of the US Dollar. Hedging with Bitcoin, and gold seem plainly obvious to me.

We will see if I am right. It is just a matter of time.

 

[Visbek]

So that would mean that SO FAR, 100% of people who held bitcoin for at least 4 years have won.

BTC was around $5000 when you got it. Since then, it ran up to over $63,000, crashed a few times and is currently around $28,000 today.

Everyone who bought BTC between January 2021 and June 2022 is under water on those transactions. Every single one.

There is no way you can guarantee the price of BTC four weeks from now, let alone 4 years from now.

But I also do not suggest Bitcoin as primarily an "investment". But rather a hedge.

As I thought I pointed out much earlier... In order to function as a good hedge, ideally it needs to go up when other asset classes drop. But that doesn't seem to be the case. It's just too volatile, and doesn't correlate particularly well to any of them.

Casinos do not make for good hedges.

And it is a hedge against what we see coming.

There's no evidence whatsoever of that.

For example, SVB was shut down a month ago. Thanks to the swift action by the FDIC, Fed and other entities, the potential contagion was halted. Other portents of doom don't seem to be playing out as expected.

While some type of recession is inevitable, there is no way to know what will happen to BTC exchange rates when it hits.

CDBCs and endless dillution of the money supply by constant printing. A way that governments have extracted wealth from not only their own citizens but the people of the world for over 50 years.

Sorry, but no, not even close.

Governments around the world have successfully kept inflation hovering around 2-3% for 50 years. Repeated proclamations of imminent hyperinflation in the US repeatedly belly-flop. That claim makes even less sense than ever, given that:

• The Fed has increased interest rates rapidly over the past year or so in order to tamp down inflation.
• BTC underwent massive inflation in the second half of 2022

Meanwhile, the residents of the tiny handful of nations that "endlessly dilute" their own currencies (e.g. Zimbabwe and Argentina) typically switch to USD (not crypto). Hyperinflation doesn't wind up "extracting wealth" from anyone, because the currency that they try to extract as taxes quickly become worthless. And the few nations that are trying to use BTC as their legal tender got railed by the huge drop in BTC's value.

Also, people who support he central bank fiat system have no right to point at Bitcoin and talk about it's use in crime. Bitcoin is small peanuts compared to the USD in that regard.

How does that make BTC a good hedge?

Lastly... we seem to be seeing an orchestrated plan against the USD unfolding before our eyes.

What "plan?" Who is masterminding this plan? Why isn't the federal government stopping this dastardly plan to destroy its currency?

We will see if I am right. It is just a matter of time.

 

[cAPSLOCK]

What "plan?" Who is masterminding this plan? Why isn't the federal government stopping this dastardly plan to destroy its currency?

A plan to move from the USD to other currrencies. BRICS for example seems to be seeing more action than previously.

Look at the recent meeting between Putin and Xi. Xi emerged telling Putin of 'changes not seen for 100 years'. I believe that is talking about the world order since ~WW1, and particularly the USD hegemony.

We can see the various WEF stooges like Marcon lining up to jump on board as well as his country burns.

You might indeed like the direction the world is going towards the Chinese system in general... I dunno. But I do not. And I have placed my bets.

It is a binary bet. I will either be a pauper because of my choices, or my wealth will be protected. Of course I am betting on the latter.

And I did not get in to bitcoin it $5k as you say, but at around $12 right after the first bubble (to about $35?) popped in 2011.

And as I said. So far, anyone who has held for 4 years (and usually less) has seen their value preserved against a falling US dollar. This is an extremely short window even for an "investment", which as I keep saying, is not why I hold Bitcoin primarily.

 

[Germinator]

I will continue to differentiate between Bitcoin and almost all the rest of "cryptocurrencies". I agree that "betting on cryptocurrencies" is foolish and generally a losing bet. But Bitcoin is an exception. I believe that you can pick ANY POINT on the chart over the last 14 years of it's existence and within 4 years you will be in the black.

Sigh, seems you are unaware of the expression,... "past performance is no guarantee of future results" (which FYI is based upon the "Gambler's hot-hand fallacy")

Hot Hand Fallacy - The Decision Lab

The hot hand fallacy is the tendency to believe that being successful is a predictor of future success, even in random scenarios.

thedecisionlab.com

Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Decades ago as a university physics student learned,... four fundamental forces (Gravity, The weak force, Electromagnetic force, The strong nuclear force) describe every interaction in nature

Mention this because decades ago found what Einstein had to say about human nature pretty interesting,… point being as I see things what Einstein had to say is very applicable to "bitcon" specifically looking at the technical aspects of blockchain-scalability

A Deep Dive Into Blockchain Scalability

We dive deep into promising blockchain developments that might allow for achieving near-instant cryptocurrency transaction speeds.

crypto.com

vs electrical power requirements for bitcoin proof of work calculations

How Bitcoin's vast energy use could burst its bubble

Could the cryptocurrency's huge electricity consumption also sink it?

www.bbc.com

bottom line, what is actually happening is a decentralized ponzi-scheme

Jamie Dimon Slams Crypto Tokens as ‘Decentralized Ponzi Schemes’

www.bloomberg.com

where prices over the years of bitcoin has been bid upward by "greater fools" (running hedge funds)

Crypto Hedge Funds | Who are the Biggest Players?

With over a third of traditional hedge funds now investing in crypto, they are starting to have a real impact. Read on to find out more.

capital.com

Honestly, each point in the above paragraph is dishonest.

so do you actually have facts to refute,...

The Case for Banning Crypto

For finance, the blockchain’s risks far outweigh its rewards.

www.foreignaffairs.com

PS FWIW an honest look at news from MIT and the UN shows North Korea is using bitcoin maximalists as "useful idiots" in their war effort(s)

North Korean hackers steal billions in cryptocurrency. How do they turn it into real cash?

For Pyongyang’s hackers, the heist is the easy part. Actually getting their hands on the money is a different story.

www.technologyreview.com

North Korea Stole Record Amount of Crypto Assets in 2022, UN Report Unveils – Bitcoin News

The regime in North Korea has managed to steal more cryptocurrency last year than in previous years, according to a draft U.N. report.

news.bitcoin.com

Useful idiot - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[cAPSLOCK]

 

[Germinator]

View attachment 67446844

a bitcoin maximalist platitude?!

well here's a platitude (by Einstein) that is applicable,... "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough."

mention an Einstein platitud because actually First Republic is where I have been banking for many years,… sadly it is now a part of Chase because of various reasons, such as "short manipulation"

ABA Calls For SEC Probe Into Short Selling, Abusive Practices - Western Alliance (NYSE:WAL)

www.benzinga.com

my own reading of the tea leaves is First Republic ultimately failed because of a chain reaction of events,… the spark being the failure of Silvergate (headquartered in La Jolla and which specialized in “crypto” banking)

the powder-keg charge which blew apart First Republic was the increased interest rates (by the federal reserve) which makes existing bonds worth-less than before AND the powder-keg was supercharged because of the way the system of fractional reserve banking is setup

looking at the bigger picture, was never a fan of TRUMP because looking at his business history he ran things into the ground (e.g. TRUMP airlines, TRUMP casino(s), TRUMP university, etc.) AND when things failed TRUMP sought to blame others

having said that,... TRUMP on occasion does point out issues than need to be addressed like the mis-management of the dollar (then again when TRUMP does point out issues than need to be addressed, conspiracy fans and theories pop up)

thought I’d mention TRUMP because he like the crypto market (w/ a market cap right now of over a trillion dollars), are two other powder-keg charges which I worry about going off (and causing un-necessary economic harm)



PS FWIW the record debt, absurd amount of money printing AND price inflation is a symptom of elected political leadership on both sides of the political spectrum not actually addressing the simple problem that on a finite planet, infinite economic growth is impossible!

Said another way record national debt is a result of politicians (on both sides of the political spectrum) pushing spending that appeals to their political base while on other hand not directly the fact that spending other peoples money (i.e. tax payers money) with reckless abandon will have the knock on effect of causing inflation,... in other words politicians (on both sides of the political spectrum) AND the fed printing money,... simply means prices will go up because there is more money in the system trying to purchase a limited number of goods (on the planet)